Post: #1
Title: Sudan - Crisis of legitimacy Dr El-faki
Author: Dr.El-Tahir El-Faki
Date: 02-19-2022, 07:47 PM
06:47 PM February, 19 2022 Sudanese Online
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It is time for the Sudanese political opponents to consider a different strategy to solve the political deadlock rather than bunker on a rigid process that only brings misery, unnecessary deaths and destruction of the country. The organizers of the Resistance Forces (RF) and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) may find the proposal exceptionally archaic and bitter to swallow or even consider it as legitimizing the events of 25th October 2021.
While it is morally hard to disagree with the fairness of the stance of the revolution, the methods pursued so far failed to roll back the coup. And to continue with the same methodology of non-negotiations, non-partnership and non-legitimacy is more likely advantageous to the military than to the civilian course. Both civilian and military sides must realize that if there is no compromise there will be no solution. The concession obliges the military side to accept there are genuine threats to its monopoly of power and time is not on its side in the long term. Moreover, there should be no dispossession of the right of the civilian partners to regain power through the democratic process.
The country at the moment is particularly vulnerable, unstable and facing significant domestic and international difficulties. But at the same time the army and the security apparatuses could potentially turn brutal and astoundingly violent if confronted. The consequences will then unfold zero consideration for human life. The ongoing bloodshed against the organized mass protests in addition to the massacres of the sit-in victims in the streets of the capital Khartoum alone is a vivid reminder. The events so far are unlikely to operate differently away from its aggressive form.
One of the most negative and dreadful aftermaths that would shadow the collapse of the military would be the obliteration of state institutions without which the country would descend into chaos and downfall. The nation will shrink back into tribal and sectarian loyalties and allegiances already orchestrated in many phases of the wars in Sudan.
The dependence of the interim period on the Army, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the armed movements for security is a factor of volatility. In a workshop in Khartoum in August 2016, the chief of Bashir’s military staff warned that the Sudanese army lost its national image and has become a nucleus for tribal influence. In this sense, violent removal of the military from power will inadvertently and tragically propel the country to plunge into unruliness. No matter how appealing the supplications to eliminate the military through mass protests may be, the ember is anarchy that’s very hard for the civilian successors to extinguish. And we know that the unruliness of the militias will not preserve national peace if it were to risk their own existence or survival.
Here, we have to credit those resisting the growing calls to inspire the masses not to opt to violent confrontation and for continuing to seek out a peaceful prescription against all the infliction, personal pains, insults and sufferings.
A peaceful democratic transfer of power is a dream far fetched by the Sudanese people. The army has already been in power for 3 years and would not depart peacefully without elected representatives in power. The grip of the army is too herculean and burly now and impossible to extricate without serious consequences. If the army is to collapse all on top would be brought down as well. It is not an unexpected equation for a Sudanese civil war should the political stalemate continues.
And in general it is also for the civilians to realize that the danger for the future of Sudan is not the RSF or the Darfur armed groups alone. A weaker and incoherent civil government to succeed is disastrous as we already saw. Collateral scuffles for power among the antagonizing civil groups are recipes for internal instability and probable civil war. This is what dreads those with national vision and the international community about an unstable Sudan.
Realizing the facts above, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Sudan, Dr Volker Perthes the head of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), launched a proposal following the collapse of the 21st November 2021 agreement between Dr Hamdok the former Prime Minister and the army leader Gen Al-Burhan. The proposal aims at bringing the political adversaries to crop up a way out of the political impasse. The pessimists consider the proposal an ostensible process to legitimize Al-Burhan’s coup while the optimists see it as opportunity to rid the country of military rule. However, most of those willing to join expressed their goodwill and not to be seen as obstructionists.
For the proposal to gain acceptance by the organised resistance forces of the uprising and the silent majorities he has to display himself as a facilitator whose role is to bring all the political adversaries to a roundtable to address their contradictions transparently and come out with proposals they see fit to solve the stalemate. In simple terms he should not act as a chief negotiator. It is also for those attending the process to consider the will of the people as the key priority and win their support. As his role implies he can provide technical support and logistics needed for the process to succeed.
While we utterly believe that the ultimate political panacea is civilian rule and dismantling of empowerment of the National Congress Party (NCP) we acknowledge the importance of a pause for a genuine initiative. This is not implausible as it may seem. The military and the civil leaders are already weak and nationally unpopular as the economic hardships get rougher. In the meantime the anti-revolutionists exploit the muddled divisions to portray itself as the credible force for a stable Sudan in order to open a backdoor to regain power. The adoption of a political pause approach will demonstrate that the revolutionaries care for the stability of the country more than for ideological dogma. This crisis of legitimacy is not about the military rule alone. It is about the future of the Sudanese nation as a whole. And based on this view, a peaceful resolution of the stalemate should not remain uncertain.
A roundtable strategy is neither an unaffordable pledge nor an appeasement or exploitation of the weakness of any side. The Juba peace agreement opened the door for national political compromise and paved the way for those claiming genuine resolve for peace and makes it harder for war mongers to derail what has become a reality at addressing the paradoxes facing the nation. These contradictions are the products of a society that has been afflicted by nearly three decades of corrupt Islamists manipulating religious hegemony.
At its least, the Juba Peace Agreement stopped the spiraling spending on security and the war that invites corruption and skews the country around military benefaction to maintain control in the face of pressures from rebels.
The country is facing repeated insecurities as the youths are continuing their defiance in protracted organised mass protests and disobedience. Such a situation has led to complicated intransigence between the military and civilians unraveling a tedious crisis of legitimacy to rule the country during the interim period.
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