تجمعات أيوا (Iowa Caucuses) و نيوهامبشير هي تقليد إنتخابي قديم متبع في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية منذ القرن الثامن عشر. و هي إنتخابات إختبارية ربما يتقرر بناء عليها الفوز بترشيح الحزب للعضو المنتخب في المؤتمر الوطني (National Convention)
و كلمة caucus تعني تجمع الناخبون على مستوى الدوائر. و في مدينة أيوا هنالك 1781 دائرة في 99 مقاطعة. التجمع يمكن أن يعقد في المراكز الإجتماعية أو محطات مطافئ الحريق أو المكتبات العامة و المدارس.
لكل حزب طريقة مختلفة في التصويت:
الحزب الجمهوري:
للجمهوريين أسلوب بسيط جدا, فالمشاركون يصوتون عن طريق كتابة إسم مرشحهم على صفحة ورقة بيضاء أو في بعض الأحيان برفع الأيدي.
الحزب الديمقراطي:
أسلوب الديمقراطيون أكثر تعقيدا. ينقسم المشاركون لمجموعات حسب إختيارهم للمرشح و إذا فشل المرشح للحصول على %15 على الأقل يبعد من الإنتخابات, ويمكن لأنصار المرشح المبعد الإنضمام لمرشح آخر أو الإمتناع عن التصويت.
بغض النظر عن الفائز في ايوا من الحزب الديمقراطي يبقى جون ادوارد هو صاحب الحظ الأوفر في الفوز بالرئاسة اذا تم ترشيحة بواسطة الحزب الديمقراطي في نهاية العام ..
ترشيح باراك او هيلاري يعتبر مغامرة سياسية لا اظن الديمقراطيون يحتاجون لخوضها .. تدور بعض الأحاديث حول ان للجمهوريين يد في دفع باراك وهيلاري للمقدمة ..
01-03-2008, 06:26 PM
Mohamed Omer Mohamed Omer
تاريخ التسجيل: 11-14-2006
مجموع المشاركات: 2384
US elections 2008: The first contest in the US presidential primaries is a perversion of democracy that does not deserve to be taken seriously
Conor Clarke
The Guardian Januay 2,2008
If a gaffe, as Michael Kinsley defined it, is when a politician tells the truth in public, then Ohio's Governor Ted Strickland's recent comments fit the bill. In an interview in the Columbus Dispatch newspaper, Strickland said the upcoming Iowa caucus "makes no sense," and that he would "like to see both parties say, 'We're going to bring this to an end.'"
The reaction was swift and brutal. Strickland had been campaigning on behalf of Hillary Clinton, and competing campaigns sent the interview to reporters, hoping to get a bounce from the governor's perceived disdain for a holy institution of the Hawkeye State. By late Sunday night the Clinton handlers had issued a statement distancing the candidate from Strickland's remarks: "Senator Clinton has worked her heart out campaigning in Iowa because she knows it plays a unique and special role in the nominating process and that process must be protected," it said. "On this issue Hillary and Governor Strickland strongly disagree."
Strickland was, of course, 100% right. The Iowa Caucus makes no sense. And in a year in which the state is poised to play a bigger role than usual - a role the Washington Post calls "wildly disproportionate" to its size - it's worth considering just how silly it is that we take tomorrow's caucus seriously
The silliness starts with the caucus's lack of democratic credentials. On the Democratic side of the race, the candidates aren't competing for votes; they're competing for "delegate equivalents", 2500 of which are spread across the state's 99 counties and 1784 voting precincts. There wouldn't be a problem with this if the delegates were distributed proportionally, but they aren't - they're distributed based on an abstruse and semi-proportional formula that creates big differences in the number of voters each delegate represents. This is not a minor issue. In 2004, there were 79.21 voters per delegate in Johnson County and 22.29 voters per delegate in Fremont County (the state average was 40.73). This means that the preference of a voter in Fremont is almost four times as valuable as the preference of a voter in Johnson
Then there's the fact that a candidate needs to have the support of at least 15% of the voters in a precinct before qualifying for any of its delegates. Backers of a candidate who doesn't receive the requisite support become what are artlessly referred to as "spare voters" - that is, voters who are free to throw their support behind a second candidate. Caucus goers can make a plea for their support, but most of the wheedling takes place between candidates themselves: they cut deals promising hand over their spares (in exchange for god-knows-what) if they don't reach 15%. (Dennis Kucinich just urged his supporters to do this for Obama.) This creates an orgy of possibilities for how a candidate's statewide support could be over- or under-inflated
And then there's the event itself. On the evening of the caucus, Democrats show up at the designated locations (schools, libraries and the like) and spend a couple of hours deliberating. When they're ready to vote they stand in a part of the room designated for a particular candidate. Then there is a head count. (Yes, a head count.)
You might notice that there's nothing terribly anonymous about this process. Indeed, some Iowans seem to think this is a good thing. While describing the caucus to reporters this Saturday, the political director of the state's Democratic Party related a "wonderful anecdote" meant to relay how "personal" the process can be: two women from Fort Dodge found themselves on opposite sides of the room and during the 1980 caucus and haven't spoken since. I suppose a 28-year-old grudge could be considered pretty wonderful. I guess I'm of the opinion that the secret ballot is just one of those tried-and-true elements of a modern democracy. In fact, such a guarantee is right there is Article 21 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
The Republican caucus is less awful - it basically resembles a straw poll - but spending a couple of hours caucusing on a Thursday evening is still a prospect that skews outcomes. (Do you work late? Early? Have kids? Out of town? Bed-bound?) For this reason, turnout tends to be incredibly low: this year's prediction is 10% for the Democrats and 12% for the Republicans. For comparison, turnout in the last presidential election was almost 60%
It's annoying that this process exerts so much influence over presidential elections, and I'm embarrassed that people in Iowa actually they think "deserve" to occupy the first slot of primary campaign. Iowa apologists drone on about how caucus goers "are better informed, more aware of political issues, more involved, and in general much more the kind of citizens political scientists always want to find," and the Clinton campaign's Strickland statement swooned that "Iowans are entrusted with this responsibility because they take it so seriously."
But this is crazy. If anything, Iowans are more engaged because they are oversaturated. Tens of millions of dollars are spent trying to bribe, trick and cajole the state's residents into the right corner of the caucus room. The Washington Post reports that "some undecided voters will be contacted hundreds of times by the various campaigns" before the caucus. Hundreds of times! This coddling comes at a price: the time and effort that could be spent on the millions of voters that happen to live outside a patch of land wedged between Minnesota and Missouri. We should stop pretending that Iowans are the virtuous guardians of our election process. They are its spoiled and pampered babies
هلا كوستاوي وناسكم ديل ما دام عندهم انتخابات يااخي ما ينتظروا ابكر لوتري اسبوع اسبوعين وصاح ابكرما عندو ولا بدوهو حق التصويت لكن ممكن نشتغل (عريفين انتخابات) وناجر لواري بجيب ناخبين من هامش ايوا
يا كوستاوى اتفق معك فى تنبؤاتك ولكن...... بخصوص الحزب الديمقراطى لو اتت كلينتون اولا وجاء اوباما ثانيا او العكس فقد يحتم ذلك ان يقبلوا بزواج كاثوليكى ويكون احدهم مرشح الرئاسة والثانى نائب الرئيس. واستبعاد ادوارز الذى لو نجح فى ان يكون المرشح للرئاسة او نائب الرئيس سيرفع من نسبة فوز الديمقراطيون بالرئاسة!!!! لا اظن ان هنالك فرصة للديمقراطيين بالفوز اخر العام بتوليفة انثى وافريقى امريكى!! لذلك تهاجم كلنتون اوباما وبعنف لخوفها من هذا المال. الولايات المتحدة لم تزل تعيش بعقلية الرجل الابيض!!! اما الجمهوريون فلا فرق بين احمد وحاج احمد.
01-06-2008, 07:08 PM
Tragie Mustafa Tragie Mustafa
تاريخ التسجيل: 03-29-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 49964
Quote بغض النظر عن الفائز في ايوا من الحزب الديمقراطي يبقى جون ادوارد هو صاحب الحظ الأوفر في الفوز بالرئاسة اذا تم ترشيحة بواسطة الحزب الديمقراطي في نهاية العام .. I gree with my friend Elsawi. Edward's base of support comes from the trade unionists, and the lower Middle class in the Democratic Party, but the Democratic Party establishment, and the big donors will stand against his populist message
01-03-2008, 07:39 PM
Kostawi Kostawi
تاريخ التسجيل: 02-04-2002
مجموع المشاركات: 39980
Quote: بغض النظر عن الفائز في ايوا من الحزب الديمقراطي يبقى جون ادوارد هو صاحب الحظ الأوفر في الفوز بالرئاسة اذا تم ترشيحة بواسطة الحزب الديمقراطي في نهاية العام ..
اذا تم ترشيحة yes ولكن كلنتون لو فازت في أيوا و نيوهامبشير مافي سبب الحزب ما يرشحها
أو ليه ما التكت تكون كلنتون/إدواردس???
01-03-2008, 07:47 PM
Kostawi Kostawi
تاريخ التسجيل: 02-04-2002
مجموع المشاركات: 39980
الحقيقة أغلب الأمريكان بفتكروا تجمعات أيوا/نيو هامبشير دي تضيعت وقت ساكت ولكن أنا بفتكرها تمارين إنتخابية للتحضير للمؤتمرات الكبيرة National Conventions
01-03-2008, 08:35 PM
Kostawi Kostawi
تاريخ التسجيل: 02-04-2002
مجموع المشاركات: 39980
The US presidential candidate Mike Huckabee attributes his surge in the polls to the power of prayer - so is God rooting for him?
Incredible: the former Baptist minister and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee claims divine providence as the reason for his surge in the polls in a convocation at Jerry Falwell's conservative Bible college, Liberty University. He's asked why he's rising in the polls, heavenward. His answer:
"There's only one explanation for it and it's not a human one. The same power that helped a little boy with two loaves and five fish feed a crowd of 5,000 people and that's the only way that our campaign could be doing what it's doing. And I'm not being facetious nor am I trying to be trite. There are literally thousands of people across this country who are praying that a little will become much and it has, it defies all explanation. It has confounded the pundits and I'm enjoying every minute of their trying to figure it out. And until they look at it from a just experience beyond human they'll never figure it out. And that's probably just as well. That's honestly why it's happening."
Afterward, according to a report in the Liberty student paper online, Huckabee backed up - only an inch:
"It was Ghandi who said there are four stages in the process of a politician," Huckabee said at the news conference. "First, they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack you. Then they attend your swearing in. We're in stage three. We're looking forward to stage four in January 2009."
Much of the news conference focused on Huckabee's reference to God as a major driving force behind his increasing popularity. When asked if God was solely responsible for his surge in the polls, Huckabee clarified: "I'm saying that when people pray, things happen."
"I'm not saying that God wants me to be elected. The last time I checked, he hadn't registered in any of the states to vote. If he does register, be sure to let me know, because I will ask for his vote."
Well, if people pray to have you elected and your polls rise as a result, doesn't that mean you think that God's on your side - or that prayers don't matter? I'd say he's saying that God's rooting for the Huckster
At the same time, a group in favour of the separation of church and state has complained that Jerry Falwell Jr, son of the televangelist founder of Liberty, violated federal law by endorsing Huckabee under the name of a religious charity.
One also wonders whether this rise in the polls could have just a little something to do with conservative, religious Iowans - and God, for that matter - being scared of Mitt Romney's Mormonism, which Romney is addressing in a speech later today
01-03-2008, 09:34 PM
Mohamed Omer Mohamed Omer
تاريخ التسجيل: 11-14-2006
مجموع المشاركات: 2384
أل قور/هيلرى الثنائى الذى يمكن ان يفوز باغلبية مريحة تؤهله للوصول الى البيت الابيض .. هيلرى فرصها للفوز اقل مع باراك او جون ادواردز اما حبيبنا باراك فان حظه كدقيق فوق شوك نثروه... تعبان ساى.. رغم اعجابنا به إلا ان الرئاسة الامريكية لها حساباتها... بالنسبة للجمهوريين مكابى اوفر حظا ولكن حظه فى الرئاسة اقل من حظ الديمقراطيين..
نورالدين منان
01-04-2008, 02:14 AM
Biraima M Adam Biraima M Adam
تاريخ التسجيل: 07-05-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 27597
الأن الساعة 8:11م بتوقيت شرق الأطلنطى .. وبدأت الأنتخاب قبل 10 دقائق فقط .. أستفتاء الدخول يقول Entry Polls فى قناة CNN الأخبارية الشهيرة على لسان Wolf Peltizer أن:
بوراك أوباما متقدم فى الديمقراطيين يليه جون أدوراد
لم أسمع عن هليرى كلنتون
بالنسبة للجمهوريين: مييت رامونى يليك حاكوبى
بريمة
01-04-2008, 02:28 AM
Hatim Salih Hatim Salih
تاريخ التسجيل: 11-26-2004
مجموع المشاركات: 706
الأن حوالى 8:55م تم فرز 15% من أصوات الناخبين بالنسبة للديمقراطيين والجمهوريين النتائج:
إدوارد 34% هليرى 32% بوراك أبوما 32%
أما الجمهورين تشير النتائج: هاكوبى 36% رامونى 22% تومسون 15% مكين 12%
دا يعنى بوراك أوباما صاعد تدريجياً فى الديمقراطين .. كما أن هاكوبى يعزز تفوقه نواصل .. بعد قليل
هناك نتيجة مهمة جداً: المرشحين الذين لم يحصلوا نسبة 15%، لم يدخلوا ضمن الفائزين فى تلك الدوائر وبالتالى جرى أعادة ترشيح لناخبيهم (أى الناخبين يرشحوا إنسان تانى لو أحب الفرد) .. هليرى لم تكسب ولا حتى صوت واحد من هؤلاء الذين أعادوا الأنتخاب ..
أكبر نسبة من هؤلاء ذهبت إلى جون إدوارد يليه بوراك أوباما
الشكر لك كوستاوي السي ان ان اعلنت هكابي الفائز بايوا للحزب الجمهوري الساعة حوالي التاسعة مساء بتوقيت الساحل الشرقي الامريكي وقد فاز على رمني برغم ان رومني صرف حوالي 6 ملايين بينما هكابي صرف حوالي المليون دولار وذلك نتيجة لدور الافانجليكال المحافظين الجدد في دعم هكابي
01-04-2008, 03:02 AM
Elmoiz Abunura Elmoiz Abunura
تاريخ التسجيل: 04-30-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 6008
نعم عبد الغني وبريمة اوباما تقريباهو الفائز وحسب توقعات سي ان ان وحسب الاحصاء حتى الآن فلنتعلم من الديمقراطية شاب والده قادم من كينيا استطاع ان يقوم بكل هذا الفعل وكيف تكون الديمقراطية من اعلى الى اسفل وفي كل الولايات وبنفس الطريقة وبعد ذلك الانتخابات الحقيقية..
01-04-2008, 03:50 AM
عبدالغني بريش فيوف عبدالغني بريش فيوف
تاريخ التسجيل: 12-01-2004
مجموع المشاركات: 1998
Quote: نعم عبد الغني وبريمة اوباما تقريباهو الفائز وحسب توقعات سي ان ان وحسب الاحصاء حتى الآن فلنتعلم من الديمقراطية شاب والده قادم من كينيا استطاع ان يقوم بكل هذا الفعل وكيف تكون الديمقراطية من اعلى الى اسفل وفي كل الولايات وبنفس الطريقة وبعد ذلك الانتخابات الحقيقية
عزيزنا ابوهريرة تحياتي نعم نتمنى فوزه في الانتخابات العامة في الثالث من نوفمبر القادم 0000000
01-04-2008, 03:30 AM
Biraima M Adam Biraima M Adam
تاريخ التسجيل: 07-05-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 27597
Dear Abu Nura, the good thing behind the success of Obama is that he never addressed the issue of the blacks alone, this doesn't mean he is neglegting their problems but rather he is considered a man of dignity for that unlike J. Jackson in the past
01-04-2008, 03:55 AM
Tragie Mustafa Tragie Mustafa
تاريخ التسجيل: 03-29-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 49964
Dear Kostawi thank you for the post. i think Edward wll be in second place while Hilary Clinton in the third. for some reasons young people and women are not voting for Clinton but rather for Obama and Edward. the winning of Obama is good and i hope it will continue . i think the win of Obama won't only bring national recociliation to America but also international reconciliation and faith in the democratic process
01-04-2008, 04:01 AM
Elmoiz Abunura Elmoiz Abunura
تاريخ التسجيل: 04-30-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 6008
Dear Talaat As I look to the figures now, it was clear that Obama beats his rivals in the major three issues in IA. I mean Economy, Iraq, and Health care. He is also has a significant lead among the youth, and independents. Obama's victory, is a victory for people who want change within the Democratic party. One of the most jubilant persons tonight, is my son Ghassan (12 years old), who is a staunch supporter of Obama Regards to your family
01-04-2008, 04:07 AM
Elmoiz Abunura Elmoiz Abunura
تاريخ التسجيل: 04-30-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 6008
الاخ كوستاوي ، السلام ليس غريبا ان يفوز اوباما ذا الاصول الافريقية - من كينيا- في ولاية ايوا التي حصل فيها راحلنا جون قرنق الماجستير والدكتوارة ... ليس غريبا بالنسبة لنا
01-04-2008, 05:06 AM
Nasr Nasr
تاريخ التسجيل: 08-18-2003
مجموع المشاركات: 10841
إقتراحي في القضية إذا إدواردز أخد نيو هامشير التكتك تكون إدواردز + هلري، أوباما يشغلوا وزير خارجية شوية كدا (بس يقدر لينا علي مشكلة الشرق الأوسط دي) ويدو فرصة في الإنتخابات الجاية.... ولا كيف؟؟؟؟ وفي حالة إدواردز جاء ثالث في نيوهامشير فما حل غير يجيبوا آل قور مع هلري. وبالمناسبة هلري ناس الإتش إم أوز أشتروها عديل، وإدواردز، مشي يسار أكثر من اللازم، آل قور ضروري لحكاية مشكلة المناخ دي. طبعا داير رومني يكون المنافس لأنو هزيمته ساهلة، علي الأقل حيحيد اليمين الديني.
01-04-2008, 05:16 AM
Abureesh Abureesh
تاريخ التسجيل: 09-22-2003
مجموع المشاركات: 30182
Quote: أيوا، الولايات المتحدة(CNN)-- حقق مايك هاكبي القس الإنجيلي وحاكم ولاية أركنسو السابق فوزا في الانتخابات التمهيدية بين المتنافسين على ترشيح الحزب الجمهوري في ولاية أيوا، فيما نجح السيناتورعن إلينوي باراك أوباما في الفوز بترشيح الحزب الديمقراطي، في الولاية التي تعدّ نتائجها مفتاحا مبكّرا مهمّا في السباق إلى البيت الأبيض.
وبإحصاء 97 بالمائة من الأصوات، حصل أوباما على 38 بالمائة وهو ما يعني أنّه ضمن الفوز حيث أنّه تقدّم على أقرب منافسيه السيناتور السابق جون إدوارز، الذي حصل على 29.8 بالمائة، والسيناتور هلاري كلينتون التي حصلت على 29.3 بالمائة.
ومع توقع أن تذهب غالبية الأصوات المتبقية لمصلحة إدوارز حيث أنّه ينتظر أن تكون لأنصاره، فإنّ شعار اليوم في المعسكر الديمقراطي هو خيبة أمل كلينتون، التي تضعها التوقعات على رأس لائحة المرشحين الأوفر حظا للوصول إلى البيت الأبيض، حيث أنها ستنهي الجولة الأولى في المركز الثالث.
وصرخ الكثيرون في المقر الانتخابي لأوباما "لقد فعلناها".
وبدا واضحا أنّ أوباما، الذي يرفع شعار التغيير، قد أفاد من المصوتين الجدد وكذلك المستقلين، وكذلك من الشبان الذين حصل على 57 بالمائة من أصواتهم، مقابل 11 بالمائة لكلينتون و13 بالمائة لإدواردز.
كما تشير الدلائل إلى كون أوباما استفاد من غياب عدد كبير من المعنيين بالتصويت حيث أدلى 124 ألفا بأصواتهم في الوقت الذي توقّع فيه الحزب الديمقراطي أن يصل العدد إلى 218 ألفا.
وعلمت CNN أنّ المرشحين الديمقراطيين السيناتورين جو بايدن وكريس دود انسحبا من السابق بعد أن حصلا كل منهما على أقلّ من واحد بالمائة من الأصوات.
ولدى المعسكر الجمهوري، فاز حاكم أركنساس السابق مايك هاكبي، المعروف أكثر بكونه نجح في حمية صارمة أكثر من العمل السياسي قبل 2007، فضلا عن عدم إنفاقه السخي على حملته، على حساب ميت رومني، القس المرموني وحاكم سابق لولاية ماساشوسيتس الذي أنفق سبعة ملايين دولار على الإعلانات لحملته في أيوا.
ولم ينفق هاكبي سوى أكثر بقليل من مليون دولار في نفس المنطقة.
وبدا واضحا أنّ هاكبي أفاد من أصوات المحافظين الذين يتمتعون بثقل كبير في أوساط الحزب الديمقراطي، فضلا عن أصوات النساء.
وقال هاكبي في تجمع احتفالي لأنصاره مرفوقا بصديقه الممثل شوك نوريس "لقد بدأ الأمر هنا في أيوا ولن ينتهي هنا. سيستمر على طول الطريق في جميع الولايات ولن ينتهي إلا في 1600 شارع بنسلفيانيا."
وحلّ السيناتور السابق عن تينيسي فريد طومسون في المركز الثالث وهو الذي دخل السابق مؤخرا بنحو 14 بالمائة من الأصوات.
وحل في المركز الرابع السيناتور عن أريزونا جون ماكين الذي سبق أن أعلن أنه سيركّز على الجولة المقبلة في نيوهامشير.
أما معارض الحرب عضو الكونغرس عن تكساس رون بول فقد حصل على 10 بالمائة فيما اكتفى عمدة نيويورك الشهير رودولف جولياني على 4 بالمائة فقط وهو الذي أعلن أنّه يريد التركيز على جولة الخامس من فبراير/شباط.
وتتمثل أهمية أيوا بالنسبة للمتنافسين من الحزبين في كونها أول محطة على طريق السباق إلى البيت الأبيض والذي ينتهي بالانتخابات التي ستجري في الرابع من نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2008.
وتعد أيوا وولاية نيو هامبشاير التي ستختار مرشحيها في الثامن من يناير الحالي ولايتين مهمتين للمرشحين رغم ضعف ثقلهما الانتخابي، فالفوز بهما خلال الانتخابات التمهيدية عادة ما يعزز فرص المتنافسين الأقوياء في السباق الحزبي.
01-04-2008, 01:30 PM
Mohamed Omer Mohamed Omer
تاريخ التسجيل: 11-14-2006
مجموع المشاركات: 2384
US elections 2008: The Southerner began as a long-shot, but his Iowa victory shows the vacuum that born-again Republicans want to fill
James Antle
January 4, 2008
For most of last year, during the supposedly condensed yet perversely elongated presidential campaign cycle, religious conservatives were without a Republican presidential candidate
In Iowa, they found him and his name is Mike Huckabee. A 10-year governor of Arkansas, the pro-life former Baptist preacher won the caucuses handily. According to an Associated Press poll, more than 80% of his supporters were born-again Christians. Six in 10 believed it was most important to pick a candidate who shared their values
It wasn't supposed to be this way. For the bulk of 2007, the national frontrunner was former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. Thrice-married, pro-choice, and pro-civil unions, Giuliani was everything religious conservatives loath in a presidential candidate. And yet it seemed they might have to just deal with it
The conventional wisdom held that social issues didn't matter anymore during the war on terror. Noemie Emery of the Weekly Standard argued that the pro-life litmus test was a luxury conservatives could no longer afford. Pat Robertson, the best known (though no longer the most influential) conservative Christian, garnered headlines with his endorsement of Giuliani, which oddly downplayed the traditional social issues
One of the first people to suspect that that conventional wisdom was wrong was the Republican presidential field's resident marketing guru, Mitt Romney. Romney sensed an opening in the field for a candidate to Giuliani's right on abortion, gay rights, guns, and immigration. And he quickly moved in to fill that vacuum, wooing conservative journals, talking to right-wing opinion leaders, and devoting his considerable resources to the evangelical-heavy state of Iowa
There was just one problem: Romney was a former Massachusetts governor. In order to get elected in one of the nation's most liberal states, he had to take moderate to liberal positions on most social issues. On abortion, gays, guns, and arguably even immigration, he was on the other side as recently as 2005
Romney could take the right positions but he lacked the authenticity. His Mormon faith may also have been a liability, but a secondary one: Romney held a steady lead in Iowa polls for weeks after his religion was well known
Huckabee, in contrast, could sing from the evangelicals' hymnal easily, as he knew all the words by heart
Huckabee's rise was greeted with derision by other elements on the right. The major conservative magazines, high-profile columnists like Peggy Noonan and George Will, and talk radio's Rush Limbaugh criticized Huckbee's views on taxes, the size of government, religion in the public square, crime, and foreign policy. Yet all the criticism, from many of the conservatives who spent much of the year trying to persuade evangelicals to back Rudy Giuliani, fell on deaf ears
That doesn't mean Huckabee will be the nominee. The other factions of the conservative movement still oppose him. There was a spirited race for third between Fred Thompson, John McCain, and even Ron Paul. Romney isn't dead yet, while Giuliani still retains strength in the states voting on February 5
New Hampshire is a very different state than Iowa. And Huckabee won't always get to woo an electorate that is so heavily evangelical
But it is nevertheless a big win for the long-shot Southern candidate. Regardless of whether Huckabee was the right choice, Iowa's values voters proved that they couldn't be bought easily
For more coverage of the Iowa caucuses, visit the Guardian's US politics blog Deadline USA
01-04-2008, 01:43 PM
Mohamed Omer Mohamed Omer
تاريخ التسجيل: 11-14-2006
مجموع المشاركات: 2384
US elections 2008: Years from now we can look back and say this was the moment when America remembered what it means to hope
Barack Obama
The Guardian
January 4, 2008
This is a transcript of Barack Obama's victory speech after winning the Iowa caucus
You know, they said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose
But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do
You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008
In lines that stretched around schools and churches, in small towns and in big cities, you came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents, to stand up and say that we are one nation. We are one people. And our time for change has come
You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that's consumed Washington
To end the political strategy that's been all about division, and instead make it about addition. To build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states.
Because that's how we'll win in November, and that's how we'll finally meet the challenges that we face as a nation
We are choosing hope over fear. We're choosing unity over division
You said the time has come to tell the lobbyists who think their money and their influence speak louder than our voices that they don't own this government - we do. And we are here to take it back
The time has come for a president who will be honest about the choices and the challenges we face, who will listen to you and learn from you, even when we disagree, who won't just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to know
And in New Hampshire, if you give me the same chance that Iowa did tonight, I will be that president for America
I'll be a president who finally makes health care affordable and available to every single American, the same way I expanded health care in Illinois, by by bringing Democrats and Republicans together to get the job done. I'll be a president who ends the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas and put a middle-class tax cut into the pockets of working Americans who deserve it
I'll be a president who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrepreneurs to free this nation from the tyranny of oil once and for all
And I'll be a president who ends this war in Iraq and finally brings our troops home who restores our moral standing, who understands that 9/11 is not a way to scare up votes but a challenge that should unite America and the world against the common threats of the 21st century. Common threats of terrorism and nuclear weapons, climate change and poverty, genocide and disease
Tonight, we are one step closer to that vision of America because of what you did here in Iowa
And so I'd especially like to thank the organizers and the precinct captains, the volunteers and the staff who made this all possible
And while I'm at it on thank yous, I think it makes sense for me to thank the love of my life, the rock of the Obama family, the closer on the campaign trail
I know you didn't do this for me. You did this because you believed so deeply in the most American of ideas - that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it
I know this. I know this because while I may be standing here tonight, I'll never forget that my journey began on the streets of Chicago doing what so many of you have done for this campaign and all the campaigns here in Iowa, organizing and working and fighting to make people's lives just a little bit better
I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment. But sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this, a night that, years from now, when we've made the changes we believe in, when more families can afford to see a doctor, when our children inherit a planet that's a little cleaner and safer, when the world sees America differently, and America sees itself as a nation less divided and more united, you'll be able to look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began
This was the moment when the improbable beat what Washington always said was inevitable
This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for too long; when we rallied people of all parties and ages to a common cause; when we finally gave Americans who have never participated in politics a reason to stand up and to do so
This was the moment when we finally beat back the policies of fear and doubts and cynicism, the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up. This was the moment
Years from now, you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment, this was the place where America remembered what it means to hope. For many months, we've been teased, even derided for talking about hope. But we always knew that hope is not blind optimism. It's not ignoring the enormity of the tasks ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path
It's not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it and to work for it and to fight for it
Hope is what I saw in the eyes of the young woman in Cedar Rapids who works the night shift after a full day of college and still can't afford health care for a sister who's ill. A young woman who still believes that this country will give her the chance to live out her dreams
Hope is what I heard in the voice of the New Hampshire woman who told me that she hasn't been able to breathe since her nephew left for Iraq. Who still goes to bed each night praying for his safe return
Hope is what led a band of colonists to rise up against an empire. What led the greatest of generations to free a continent and heal a nation. What led young women and young men to sit at lunch counters and brave fire hoses and march through Selma and Montgomery for freedom's cause
Hope, hope is what led me here today. With a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas and a story that could only happen in the United States of America Hope is the bedrock of this nation. The belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be
That is what we started here in Iowa and that is the message we can now carry to New Hampshire and beyond
The same message we had when we were up and when we were down; the one that can save this country, brick by brick, block by block, that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things.
Because we are not a collection of red states and blue states. We are the United States of America. And in this moment, in this election, we are ready to believe again.
مش قلت ليك يا كوستاوي شفت الملائكة صوتت كيف مع اوباما في ايوا وهي ليست منطقة ثقل للديمقراطيين ولا للسود .. وبرضو اوباما متقدم على هيلاري وادواردز في نيوهامشير بفارق كبير حسب الإستطلاعات ومعروف ان نيوهامشير منطقة بيض وما فيها اضان زرقا .. ياخ الجمهوريين ديل سووها وااااااضحة .. انا غايتو لو كنت في نيوهامشير كنت حا اصوت لأدواردز، لكن في ديسمبر حا اصوت للمرشح/ه الديمقراطي ايا كان لكن ترشيح اوباما من المؤكد سيقلل فرصة الديمقراطيين في الفوز ..
01-08-2008, 08:17 PM
Kostawi Kostawi
تاريخ التسجيل: 02-04-2002
مجموع المشاركات: 39980
• January 3—Iowa Caucus • January 5—Republican Wyoming caucus • January 8—New Hampshire Primary • January 15—Michigan Primary (allowed on appeal) • January 19—Nevada Caucus / Republican South Carolina Primary • January 26—Democratic South Carolina Primary • January 29—Florida Primary • February 2―Maine caucus • February 5―Super Duper Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and one Republican-only primary
01-09-2008, 09:00 PM
Tragie Mustafa Tragie Mustafa
تاريخ التسجيل: 03-29-2005
مجموع المشاركات: 49964
الرسائل والمقالات و الآراء المنشورة في المنتدى بأسماء أصحابها أو بأسماء مستعارة لا تمثل بالضرورة الرأي الرسمي لصاحب الموقع أو سودانيز اون لاين بل تمثل وجهة نظر كاتبها
لا يمكنك نقل أو اقتباس اى مواد أعلامية من هذا الموقع الا بعد الحصول على اذن من الادارة
Kostawi
Biraima M Adam
Tragie Mustafa
elsawi
Mohamed Omer
عبدالكريم الامين احمد
Moneim Elhoweris
Elmoiz Abunura
Ahmed Abdallah
Mannan
Hatim Salih
ابوهريرة زين العابدين
عبدالغني بريش فيوف
طلعت الطيب
مصطفي سري
Nasr
Abureesh
Mohamed Suleiman
النذير حجازي
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست