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Could a split benefit Sudan?
Despite media negativity, a vote by south Sudan to secede could have positive consequences for the embattled north

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o Nesrine Malik
o guardian.co.uk, Saturday 2 October 2010 12.00 BST
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A country divided? Northern Sudanese supporters of the country's president Omar al-Bashir. Photograph: Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters
In a referendum next January, southern Sudan will decide whether to become an independent state. Earlier this year, many(me included) were sceptical about the referendum going ahead, as the northern government looked unprepared and seemed to be trying to render unity "attractive" to the south through token overtures. But as time passes, the juggernaut of the referendum, as enshrined in the agreement that secured peace between the warring regions, is becoming harder to turn around.
International media coverage of the potential secession of the south has been mostly negative, even apocalyptic. The Economist asks: "Are they heading for a crash?". In the New York Times, Dave Eggers and John Prendergast assert that "In Sudan, war is just around the corner". Only this week, there have been rumblings that the northern government might not recognise the results of the vote, and thus send the country back into a tailspin of war.
While there are valid reasons to be fearful, predictions of the death of Sudan may be exaggerated. The only narratives are those that paint the north as reluctant to part with the south; that portray northern Sudanese as hopelessly territorial, unwilling and unable to let go. The official position is that it will be a sad day if/when the south splits away. But we must not conflate the northern government with the people of the north, some of whom, in conversations with me over the past few days, have expressed cautious optimism regarding the separation.
They recognise that the relationship with the south has always defined northern governments, providing a distraction from their failures and an excuse not to invest in resources. Separation might therefore be a blessing in disguise. If we look beyond the history that has entrapped Sudan in a vicious spiral for years, secession may be the beginning of a real and lasting change.
Economically, the riches of the south have always been claimed by the north as the ultimate cure for the country's economic ills – if only the war would end so that they could be tapped into. Like an idle son waiting for his rich father to die so that he may inherit, the north's work ethic has been dulled by the promise of the wealth in the south.
Those that decry the potential loss of oil revenue from the south should calculate the savings of a permanent peace. The material cost of war is colossal. The north is hardly devoid of natural resources, and there are signs that the government is already investing in raw materials and infrastructure.
Fast forward a few years from now and without the north-south distraction, you have a north that, through necessity, has turned its gaze inwards. The north may be compelled to invest in itself and its people, to develop its infrastructure and resurrect a decimated civil society. The separation might force northern Sudan to re-examine and rediscover its identity, precipitating a crucial change in the country's political culture. It also offers the chance to break out of a colonial legacy, so often condemned for drawing arbitrary lines in the sand. Why denounce and then fiercely protect these borders?
Most critically, northern governments might start to think more carefully about the marginalisation of regions such as Darfur and the disgruntled eastern provinces. Not for any sentimental reasons, but for fear that another rebellion may be on the cards, and to marshal as much revenue as possible from what is left of the country.
If the south chooses to secede in January, it is not only a positive outcome for the people of the south, but potentially for the north as well. Not one, but two new states will rise from the ashes of war. In the long run, after some inevitable growing pains, we may look back on separation as a necessary evil.