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 Re: السودان 2012 سيناريوهات للمستقبل-Sudan 2010 Scenarios for the future (Re: abubakr)
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Introduction
The future of Sudan is uncertain. At present the international community, governments, international organisations and civil society groups are mostly focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and making sure the elections and referendum take place. Consequently, little time is directed to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on.
It is impossible to predict the future, but by developing a range of scenarios one can be prepared. Thinking in terms of scenarios has a number of advantages. Taking a normative approach, thinking through the main drivers and tendencies that lead towards an unwanted scenario – for example, one in which war restarts – means attempts can be made to prevent it from happening.
Scenarios can also be used as a strategic planning tool. Policies can be developed so that in
2012 everyone concerned is prepared for different scenarios. At present, most attention is
directed to making sure that elections and a referendum are held, none of which may take
place.
The scenarios in this paper are not intended to be a comprehensive overview of all possible futures, but rather a thought-provoking selection that cover a wide range of possible outcomes. It is, after all, very likely that none of the scenarios described will come true, but elements of them are likely to be part of the future.
Methodology
This paper describes four scenarios for the future of Sudan1 within the parameters of two key uncertainties: 1) In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? 2) In 2012, will there be a new war between the North and South of Sudan, or will there be no war between the North and South? The answer to neither question is known, but theoretically they both have at least two equally possible answers.
War
United Secession
No war
The four scenarios built on the basis of the above cross are:
1. The Last War Revisited? (War – United)
2. Border Wars (War – Secession)
3. CPA Hurray! (No War – United)
4. Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia? (No War – Secession)
A number of questions underlie these scenarios and are likely to determine which scenario will become reality.
• What will happen with the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of President
Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir? Will he be toppled? Will he be arrested?
• Will the elections take place? If so, will they be free and fair? What will the results be,
and will they be accepted?
• What will happen with the implementation of the Abyei arbitration? Will it be accepted?
• Especially in the case of secession, will there be a further agreement on those wealth-
sharing and border demarcation issues not dealt with in the CPA?
• Will the South remain united or will it be torn apart by power struggles and tribal
conflicts? This will depend to a large extent on whether the South has a stable,
cooperative and confident leadership.
1 The Shell method has been applied in the scenario-building process. These scenarios are not mechanical forecasts, but recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths. They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenging and, as such, provide alternative views of the future. They aim to identify significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and convey how the world functions.
• What will the election strategy of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) be?
Will it cooperate with the Northern opposition or will it stay in an alliance with the
National Congress Party (NCP)?
If all these uncertainties were translated into key questions, the number of possible scenarios would be overwhelming. That is precisely why the present scenarios have been developed. The purpose of this paper is not to predict the future, which is impossible, but to assist in planning and preparing for it. By thinking through very different possible scenarios, we are able to plan better for the future. For this reason the scenarios need to be challenging, plausible and creative. They were chosen in the hope that they are instructive and that they will provoke debate about the driving forces in Sudan, the different potential scenarios for the country, and about political, development and security strategies for its future. They do not describe what we hope the future will be like, or how we think it should look; they merely present different pictures of how it might look. We may not like some of the scenarios. In fact, we might do our best to prevent them.
The scenarios were developed based on workshops in both the North – Khartoum – and Southern Sudan – Malakal, Juba and Bor. The workshops were made up of more than 100 church people, lawyers, government officials, members of civil society and non-governmental organisations, academics, journalists, members of parliament, politicians and staff of international organisations, invited by IKV Pax Christi, Reconcile International and the al- Khatim Adlan Centre for Enlightenment and Development. They were facilitated by Reverend John Okumu and Magdi El Na’im.
The lively discussions at these workshops formed the basis for the scenarios, along with a number of interviews with representatives of the governing political parties in the North and South, members of the diplomatic community and specialists on specific topics. These interviews helped to further balance the input between North and South, and between government and opposition, and at the same time provide additional background information. Finally, the scenarios are also based on extensive literature research. A brainstorm session attended by a number of Dutch Sudan experts and policy-makers in The Hague also fed into the policy options.
What follows are four scenarios for Sudan 2012, written from the perspective of 2012. For this reason, each description of the period 2009–12 is written in the past tense, as though it were history, followed by a description of the situation in 2012. For each scenario, requirements from the international community for the year 2012 are given. This is followed by conclusions and recommendations on how to better prepare for the future of Sudan in 2012.
(عدل بواسطة abubakr on 06-02-2010, 05:36 PM)
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abubakr
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