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 Re: أعرف أنت وأهل السودان عن السلفية الجهادية (Re: زهير عثمان حمد)
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What are ISIS' plans at the moment؟ What territories is it on now, what territory does it plan to takeover next؟
1 Answer
Mustafe Abdullahi
ISIS's goal is to take over the world but it focus on the 54 Muslim Majority countries especially the ones that are in the Arab world.
ISIS is most likely trying to get groups like Al Qaeda, Taliban and their allies to pledge allegiance so they can be a united Salafi jihadist front. Given the Taliban frictions with their new leader, ISIS's poaching of Al Qaeda affiliates like Boko Haram, plus the fact their collective Tarfiki ideologies being extremely similar and they have sympathizers in their collective ranks it will eventually merge but the manner which they will do is anyone's guess but I guess these five countries.
Somalia- ISIS has been courting Al Shabaab for over a year now. Al Shabaab is a extremely powerful terrorist group so powerful in fact they maintain control 20% of Somalia even with 22,000 strong African Union forces (Almost 50,000 if you include the Somali army). They have presence in Kenya and to lesser extent Ethiopia. Al Shabaab isn't like most Al qaeda Affiliates it governs terrority it had been doing so for more than five years before ISIS came into existence and it's ties Al Qaeda is shaky. Al Qaeda's brass has been very critical of Al Shabaab leadership ( However they maintain close relations with AQAP). And with African Union forces slated to leave in 2016 only time will tell whether Al Shabaab switched sides.
Palestine- Reportedly Jaysh Al Islam the most powerful Salafi jihadist group in Palestine pledge alligence to ISIS. We can obviously see Israel as a big reason but we can but some blame can be on Palestinian governmental authorities for corruption as well as poor governance. ISIS already has a presence in Sinai which is in close proximity to the already Islamist control Gaza Strip (However Hamas advocates the Muslim Brotherhood Islamism which pro democracy and more tolerant of other religions). And Israel might prefer ISIS over groups like Hamas because it gives them free rein in Palestine because they are hated everyone including states that want wipe Israel off the map *cough* Iran *cough*
Sudan- Now this country is not talk about a lot when it comes to ISIS but this truly is ISIS's dreamland it has extreme poverty, extreme corruption, ethnic discrimination (Bedouin Muslims against African Muslims). Salafism has respectable presence and Sudan's top dog Omar Al Bashar has no appointed successor even though he is very old which put the Sudanese government in tough spot. With no successor his regime might fall or be considerably weaken without their seasoned strongman and the opposition parties don't have a strong charismatic leader like Omar Al Bashar (which main reason why he hasn't been overthrown). The ingredients for ISIS rise are present and Sudan has jihadists groups who are gaining ground amongst some fed up youth some of them already pledge alligence to ISIS.
Lebanon- When it comes religious tolerance Lebanon is a prime example not only for the Middle East but the entire world. However ISIS does have a presence. ISIS and Al Nursa have joined forces even captured the town of Arsal at one point but it was liberated by the Lebanese army shortly after. Given it's close proximity to ISIS terrority and it will have to face spillover of Syrian civil war. If that confrontation does come to pass Hezbollah a Shiite paramilitary group will be the Vanguard of defense considering it is stronger than the Lebanese military but ISIS can use it that it's advantage just like with Assad religious minorities will flee to under protection of Hezbollah but Sunnis are untrusting of Hezbollah and some may claim that Sunnis are discriminated against in Lebanon due to Hezbollah hegemony this may bode true in some ways. Given that winning Sunni support will be difficult most Sunnis are against Salafism but ISIS might use a fearmongering campaign as it's predecessor AQI did in Iraq.
Pakistan- Pakistan can be referred to the birthplace of Present day Salafi Terrorism. Pakistani has maintain close ties to groups like the Taliban and some speculate Al Qaeda but even with that It has it's own terror problem the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Taliban isn't like the Afghan Taliban for one it is not a cohesive entity it is a coalition of Dozens like minded groups who have their own political motives and even though they share the same name the Afghan Taliban has no control over them and there is little evidence they even cooperate militarily. The Taliban claims them out of ideological sympathy. They do have strong bonds with Al Qaeda but their biggest loyalty lies within their own respective groups. ISIS's "Khorsan province" (they're in Afpak/Parts of India) was founded by dissident Pakistani Taliban commanders and is made mostly Pakistani nationals. It will be easier for ISIS to gain the loyalty of small factions than entire a Jihadist organization.
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زهير عثمان حمد
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست