سناريوهات تغيير نظام البشير

Third Scenario:
This scenario suggests that change can be realised from within the regime. It is obvious that, since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, there has been undeclared division within the regime, there are two camps: one camp is under the leadership of Al Bashir and the other is under the leadership of Taha, the Vice President. In the recent convention of the NCP Shura Council, Taha was openly criticised by the hardliners for the problems created by the CPA and for making too much concessions to the SPLM. This convention marked a new era of division within the NCP; Taha lost the battle to Nafie, the later is now the strong man of the regime and has Al Basher’s ear.
Some optimists suggest that the current power-struggle within the regime, could lead for a change from within. However, the current internal power-struggle within the regime isn’t about real reform with an agenda of genuine change; it is over power, wealth and manipulation. This scenario has very limited chances of success, because the hardliners such as Nafie and AL Bashir’s are in full control of the regime’s power structure, including the security forces and militias. For instance, the humiliating dismissal of the former Security Chief, Salah Gosh, is a clear example. It is also seems that this incident won’t be the last one; we will see more of it as time progresses. According to some circles, others will follow the fate of Salah Gosh, namely Mr Taha.
It is true that Taha, sees the danger of internal power shifting, which his survival depends on. Losing power at home implies losing international credibility to deliver, and that accelerates his demise sooner than later. Recently, the power struggle within the regime has taken a very vicious tribal shape between the Gaaleyeen, the tribe of Al Bashir and his Assistant Nafie on the one hand, and the Shaygia tribe of Taha. The two tribes are the core of the ruling ethic Group (Riverain). The third tribe in the axis is the Danagla (Nubian) tribe of Abudlraheem Mohamed Hussain, the Defence Minster and General Bakri Hassan Salih, the Presidency Minster. The members of the Danagla tribe in the regime are now siding with Al Bashir in this power-struggle. It worth mentioning that this power struggle has also reached the security and the armed forces, thus, it is possible that it may turn in to a violent confrontation.
Therefore, it isn’t likely that there will be a change from within the regime, however the regime’s power- struggle could weaken it, and consequently, help the masses, the armed and civil opposition to over-throw it and realise the democratic change in the North.