Alex De Waal, I know you can read

Quote: many thanks for your message, which I have read carefully and considered. As a statement of the grievances and just demands of Darfurian people it is superb. As a proposal for a solution to the problem at hand, in which an armed Movement has failed to win a war, has extremely weak political structures, and is divided among itself, is facing an undefeated and powerful government that is recognized by the international community and has won legitimacy for its CPA with the South, it does not work. If you defeat your adversary on the battlefield you can dictate your terms. If you do not do so, no matter how deep the suffering of your people and how just and righteous your cause, you cannot do so. It is necessary to compromise. In my considered view, the provisions for security arrangements in the DPA are superb. I think there are few better. For the sake of the people in Darfur who are dying each day, I think that is reason enough to sign the DPA. Abdel Wahid himself has said that he finds no fault with the security arrangements. It includes disarming the Janjaweed, downsizing the PDF, integrating the Movements' forces into the army, etc. Those who reject those security arrangements should consider their responsibilities before the court of history very carefully indeed. The provisions for wealth-sharing are strong. Individual compensation is there. Reconstruction and development is there. It is true that not all the figures have been finalized. But the key to the resources is international commitment, and that is immense. It may not always be so. Remember the billions committed to Somalia, and the total disinterest in Somalia after the Somalis disagreed with the international solution to their problem. The provisions for power-sharing are a painful compromise. But it is important that you consider what is positive in the Agreement. Let me just point to two things. One is the TDRA, which is controlled overwhelmingly by the nominees of the Movements. Could the Mediation have proposed a region for Darfur with strong powers? Yes it could, but the price of that would have been that the NCP would have controlled 50% of it at minimum with the rest divided between the Movements and the independents. Surely, better to have a TDRA with specific powers and competencies (and a known budget already in excess of $600 million--compared to $10-12million for each state government) that you control, than a regional government you dont. Second, there are ELECTIONS. Democracy is coming. In his personal letter to Abdel Wahid, President Bush promised assistance to turn the SLM into a political party to compete in elections. When Bob Zoellick read out that letter, President Obasanjo said, "I want one too!" No other rebel leader or indeed civilian party leader has received such offers of support. If the Movements win the elections and the referendum on the status of Darfur, you will have EVERYTHING you want. That is in 3 and 4 years time. If this peace deal is rejected I strongly fear that in 3 or 4 years time you will still be writing your letters and appeals and justifiably pointing out the perfidy and deceit of the GoS and the international community over Darfur--by that time piled on with a few years of neglect as the world has washed its hands of this intractable problem (like Somalia). The whole mediation has left Abuja save Sam Ibok, Boubou Niang and myself. President Obasanjo met with Abdel Wahid today and passed us a message, saying he doesnt want to speak to him again as he is just wasting time. The Americans say they won't speak to him unless he signs--or when he's in court. (Believe me they are 100% serious.) Sam and Boubou have also given up on the man. They leave Thursday morning with the signed copies of DPA to Addis Ababa. On 15th the Peace and Security Council will deposit the DPA with the AU and UN Security Council. In the 30 hours that are left for Abdel Wahid to sign, please encourage him to do the only responsible thing. The DPA isn't perfect. But it is one hell of a lot better than staying out in the cold. This chance will not come again. Never. Alex

(عدل بواسطة Hashim Badr Eldin on 05-15-2006, 05:04 PM)