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 Re: السودان 2012 سيناريوهات للمستقبل-Sudan 2010 Scenarios for the future (Re: abubakr)
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السيناريو (3)
نجاح اتفاقية السلام الشامل (وحدة - سلام )
CPA Hurray! (No War – United)
A Sudanese future history 2009-2012
During the second half of 2009, aware of the importance of the implementation of the CPA for the whole of Sudan, the international community became more active. In an effort to keep the CPA on track, the United States, the United Nations, other members of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), started a mediation process. Looking back, this process started with the Washington DC meeting at the end of June 2009, after which Scott Gration became increasingly involved as moderator. In combination with international and regional – Egyptian, Kenyan and Ugandan – pressure on the Sudanese parties to stick to their agreement, this created a new momentum for the peace process. It resulted in the December 2009 Nairobi protocol, in which a number of important dates were rescheduled and further confidence-building measures were put in place. The protocol contained, among other issues, further arrangements and funding for the demobilisation of large parts of the SPLA, including comprehensive demobilisation packages, training of the remainder to become a professional army which in the future could be integrated with the Northern forces, and agreements on the depoliticisation of the SPLA and SAF. After the signing of the Nairobi protocol, the Security Council decided to defer the Bashir case before the ICC. As agreed in the Nairobi protocol, the peace process at first focused on the organisation of free and fair elections, which were rescheduled for January
2011. The referendum was rescheduled until after the rainy season in November 2011. Part of the protocol was for the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) to play a greater role in organising and providing security for the elections. In addition, the UN was given the enormous task of monitoring the elections and making sure that they were free and fair.
In the spirit of the late Dr. John Garang, the SPLM decided to cooperate with the Northern opposition. Initially, it joined forces on the basis of the so-called Juba process, in which the SPLM aligned itself with the 17 smaller Northern opposition parties in the Alliance of Opposition Parties. As this conglomerate was supported by a significant part of the population, the Umma Party and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) read the signs on the wall and joined in a so-called Rainbow Coalition. At first this coalition was very unstable and disagreement was common, but it managed to stick together. In spite of the many logistical and security difficulties, the elections were a great success. The number of registered voters was much larger than expected and the turn out was very high at 89 per cent. In a joint statement, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon and US President Barack Obama called it a victory for democracy. The SPLM and its partners in the Rainbow Coalition won the election
with 55 per cent of the votes. This unexpected positive result for the coalition boosted its cohesiveness. The South was only able to get this result by rallying behind the unity policy of the SPLM. On the other hand, with 45 per cent of the votes, the NCP became the largest Sudanese political party and felt legitimised as a result of the elections.
Following the example of Nelson Mandela in South Africa after the end of the Apartheid regime, the rainbow coalition decided that in order to prevent further violence it was necessary to include the NCP in a new Government of National Unity. International pressure from China, Russia and the United States on the NCP to accept the deal, and to live with Bashir being vice-president rather than president, was enormous. In the resulting negotiations, Western donors like the USA, UK and Netherlands blocked a solution for a long time. They were slow to accept that in return for the cooperation of the NCP, they needed to strike a deal in which Bashir’s case before the ICC was dropped. In the end, however, they gave in. Although a number of both NCP and SPLM members opposed their parties cooperating in the new Government of National Unity, enthusiasm for another war among both the SPLA and the SAF waned. Although the leadership of both armies tightened discipline, unfortunately there were a number of small-scale violent incidents caused by power struggles and ethnic conflict. Bashir accepted the power-sharing deal and became Vice-President behind the first Southern president of Sudan. On 4 January 2012, the new Constitution of the Federal Republic of Sudan came into effect and replaced the Interim National Constitution.
Sudan in this scenario in 2012
In 2012, according to its new constitution Sudan is a democratic federation in which the North, the South, the East, Darfur, Kordofan and Khartoum share their wealth and power. The major rebel movements in Darfur, including the JEM and most Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M) factions, stick to a ceasefire and negotiate their terms of the El Fasher Peace Agreement. Only some smaller factions stayed outside of this process, as to them violence and banditry appeared more lucrative. According to the Constitution, all parts of the country now enjoy a power-sharing deal and are represented in the Khartoum government. All the marginalised areas are entitled to a piece of the cake. Although sharia law still applies to Muslims in the Northern states, Sudan as a whole is a secular federation. The federal government intends to impose strict anti-discrimination regulations to make sure that everyone is treated equally before the law and in daily life. Fundamental freedoms and human rights are guaranteed in the new Constitution. The SPLA and SAF are to be integrated into the Sudanese National Armed Forces and preparations for this are in process.
Although many nationalist members of the Northern elite (including the NCP) perceive this new Sudan as a defeat, most NCP members settle for second best. One of the most important reasons for this is that, as a result of the sustained peace, the Sudanese economy is expected to grow rapidly and the Northern elites are already in a good starting position. Their economic interests prevail over their political hopes. Guarantees by the new government that all properties and possessions will be safe assures them that their future economic positions will not be threatened. In fact, there is ever-closer mercantile cooperation between parts of the Northern and Southern elites, which is more important than their divergent political agendas. Moreover, the political power of the NCP does not diminish overnight. Based on its history of having nearly been ‘the State’, it still holds many important positions and maintains a grip on the government. As a result, it could be said that Sudan is still not fully democratic, but for the moment most Sudanese can live with the situation. Members of the Rainbow Coalition and
most NCP members have sufficient trust in the road ahead. Some of the more nationalist and Islamist Northern elites are, however, not willing to join in the peace process. They commit small-scale violent attacks and plant bombs. At the same time, governance is far from efficient. As the government consists of a variety of strange bed fellows, decision-making is a time- consuming effort.
Sudan is establishing friendly and good relations with its neighbours and international partners. One of the main spearheads of the government is strengthening education and the fight against illiteracy in the whole of the country. In addition, strict laws against corruption and nepotism, and policies to ensure accountability, are being put in place. The overall security situation has improved since the new Constitution came into force, and plans for voluntary civil disarmament are being made. Nevertheless, tribal conflicts – especially in the South – flare up every once in a while. Some smaller opposition groups in the South still strive for independence as they would have gained more power and wealth in an independent South. They make optimal use of the increased freedom. The federal government is, however, working with organisations such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to strengthen security and the rule of law. It is hoped that if government control is strengthened, these smaller groups will give up and that the planned voluntary civilian disarmament will have a better chance of success as civilians will no longer need to provide their own security.
The present improved security situation already attracts more foreign investors who are surveying the Sudanese market in search of business opportunities. Oil production is increasing and new fields are being searched for. Except for mainly the Khartoum area, the Sudanese economy is still very poor but, in this more stable situation, economic development is much more likely. Due to the first foreign investments, the introduction of policies to empower local traders and a number of development projects, further dividends of the new- found peace are likely to become clear soon. Expectations are that in the referendum, which after the elections was rescheduled to take place in 2013, Southerners will choose unity as they will find it more attractive. Some even talk of postponing the referendum indefinitely as they argue it is a waste of money. The question of whether and how to organise the Abyei referendum is not yet solved.
[B]Suggestions and policy options for the international community in this scenario in 2012
The improved security situation throughout the whole country allows the international community to be proactive in developing the country and helping to build capacity. However, a lot of trust building is still needed, as is a need for conflict management and prevention. The main policy options are:
• providing development assistance in its broadest sense in the more secure areas including: support for education; development of health care infrastructure; rehabilitation of physical infrastructure; and improving local water supplies and food production
• support for repatriation of refugees, resettlement of IDPs, their reintegration into local communities, and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the areas they return to
• continuous support for the newly formed Government of National Unity
• stimulation of trade with and foreign direct investments in Sudan
• monitoring of human rights and the rule of law, and implementation of agreements
under the CPA and subsequent agreements
• support for and monitoring of future elections
• providing a continuous, though lower scale, active peacekeeping presence throughout
the country under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter
• security sector reform, both in the North and the South, to ensure a united and well-
functioning security sector
• support for voluntary civil disarmament
• conflict management and resolution between different tribal groups, to prevent and
manage future conflicts
• strengthening of governance structures in the South to enhance GoSS capacity to deliver
services to its population
• supporting civil society to strengthen Southern unity
• supporting civil society and political opposition to ensure good and accountable
governance in both the North and the South.
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abubakr
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست