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 هل سيجتاح أوباما الإنتخابات؟
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ام مجرد فوز ضئيل؟
الثابت في الحالتين الفوز.
و الضئيل هو إحتمال الخسارة.
و لكن تزايد الكلام عن الفوز بالإجتياح على طريقة الرئيس رولاند ريغان Landslide
الدلائل تشير لان مسكر أوباما توصل لهذه النتيجة، و لكنه يضن بها و بحرص على ابداء التخوف من تقارب نتيجة الإنتخابات بين مرشحه أوباما و الجمهوري ماكين.
لو شعر مؤيدي اوباما بالبطر و الثقة الزائدة و تقاعسوا و تسيبوا في التنظيم و التصويت بإعتبار فوز اوياما المضمون لحلت عليهم الكارثة. و هي الشيئ الذي يعمل عليه بقوة مدراء الحملة من عدم تسرب الطمائنينة لجنود الحملة في الميدان و الناخبين على السوا.
و لكن اصبح شعور صعب المقاومة في الحس العام و صار ملاحظ الوجه الجاد الصارم و المهموم في وجه استراتيي و تنفيذيي حملة أوباما يواري وجه ضاحك لدرجة القهقهة.
But
Sill
Go out
And VOTE
هنا أخر الاستطلاعات هذا الصباح
من مؤسسة زاغبي.
10/22/2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: And Then It Was Ten . . .
Obama 51.6%, McCain 42.0%
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UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama moved very close to a double–digit lead over Republican John McCain in the national horserace for President, continuing his slow push forward above the 50% mark, gaining 1.3 points in the last day.
Data from this poll is available here
McCain is slowly losing ground, having lost another 0.4 points in this latest report on the Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll.
Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
Week Three
Three–Day
Tracking Poll
10–21
10–20
Obama
51.6%
50.3%
McCain
42.0%
42.4%
Others/Not sure
6.4%
7.3%
Week Two
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
10–19
10–18
10-17
10-16
10-15
10-14
10-13
Obama
49.8%
47.8%
48.3%
48.7%
49.0%
48.2%
49.0%
McCain
44.4%
45.1%
44.4%
43.7%
43.5%
44.4%
42.8%
Others/Not sure
5.8%
7.1%
7.3%
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
8.2%
Week One
Three-Day
Tracking Poll
10-12
10-11
10-10
10-9
10-8
10-7
10-6
Obama
47.9%
48.9%
47.6%
47.6%
47.8%
47.1%
47.7%
McCain
43.6%
42.8%
43.8%
43.4%
44.2%
45.2%
45.3%
Others/Not sure
8.5%
8.3%
8.6%
9.0%
8.0%
7.7%
7.0%
Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans.
McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.
The three–day rolling average poll includes 1,208 likely voters nationwide, surveyed at the rate of 400 interviews per day and was conducted Oct. 19–21, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/– 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone operators in Zogby’s in–house call center in Upstate New York.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll “tracks” changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1359
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ثروت سوار الدهب
الشامي الحبر عبدالوهاب
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست