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 Re: أبيى مستقبل السلم والنزاع :دراسة فى الابعاد الاجتماعية والاستراتيجية(الكتاب الذى تنبأ بالكا (Re: Abuelgassim Gor)
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ملخص الكتاب باللغة الانجليزية:
للاخوة الذين لا يتوفرون على القراءة باللغة العربية هنا أقوم بترجمة ملخص الكتاب من اللغة العربية الى اللغة الانجليزية آملا أن تكون ترجمة مبينة.كما أرجو المعذرة لعدم ظهور الهوامش لكننى سوف أقوم بتثبيت الهوامش لاحقا مع تقديرى
With it's demographical and geographical dimensions Abyei area stands as strategic tension area in Sudan. In fact Abyei can be described as the most Sudanese strained tens area .In 1972 Abyei county had a significant and crucial role in Addis Ababa peace agreement fragmentations . In the year of 2004 Abyei could have blown off the Nevasha peace talks after constituting differences in identity and political confrontation between the tow negotiating parts both Government of Sudan & SPLA . What is the mystery behind Abyei crisis ? Could it become again an another threat factor for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPA or peace existence space for the various ethnic groups living in the area ?could it might become small sample and model for the CPA in Sudan ?dose the Government of National Unity GNU be able to dry up the hole Abyei area from the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons or it could become another sample for DDR failure programs in the world? this research examines and seeks answers for these deep mysterious and critical questions of Abyei.The Research aims to develop problem solving models .This research lays in three chapters as follows
Chapter one: Scio- cultural approach to the conflict social :
In this chapter I examined historical, cultural , relations and linkages between the Noak of Dinka and Homor Ajjaira of Missaria tribes. I assume that Scio cultural studies examine cultural signs and elements of culture structure which could lead to a better understanding of the indigenous thinking of both Missaria and Dinka. In traditional community like Noak & Ajaira, native culture is the key sentence for understanding the insight vision of Abyei people , and I mean by the insight vision the hole Indigenous image of Bagara Man or Noak man in which he sees himself in their present life , and how he anticipates his future .This is a cultural structuralism view for community base society for the Noak Man and Bagara Arab Man. The Monjang and Bagara indigenous culture can be analyzed within Indigenous Knowledge System framework.
Chapter Tow: Strategic Dimension
This chapter focuses on the strategic factor of the conflict between the Noak & Ajaira, also it examines past treatise . The chapter examines military , People defence Army and political manifestation of the conflict . Oil and lack of development have been examined.Illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons among Missarya Militias is addressed as well .
Chapter Three : Beyond the CPA and Post conflict:
This Chapter is about Apyei present including ARRP as first peace building and conflict transformation project through natural resources .The chapter unfolds Abyei Protocol of the CPA which was signed on 26th May 2004 .In this chapter future study has been prospected within present treatment of Abyei crisis analysis.
Conclusions :
The research ended up with a prospect of three scenarios, one of these scenarios could take place in Abyei .
a)the worse scenario is the collapsing of the security in chaotic way due to the extreme polarization and Military confrontation between the National Congress Political Party NCP and SPLA/M over the area.. then Armed conflict and violence would break out between Noak and Ajaira
b)The Rapid growth of Missaria Mutinies against north Government could end up with the formation of Armed Movement to claims their political rights , and could join the Darfourian rebellions , all these might be the cause of expansion of war cycle in Abyei area , and would include conflict between Arabs and non Arabs in the intercultural zones .Thus , Abyei conflict could blown off the CPA.
c) Both what has been call National Unity Government and the international community could come to agreement about Abyei. Illicit Arms controlled . Ajaira accepts the fact that they are the southern south citizens while the Noak agree with this away from polarization
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Abuelgassim Gor
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست