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 كامرون هدسون: Sudan is for sale to the highest bidder
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02:40 AM February, 25 2022 سودانيز اون لاين
محمد البشرى الخضر-العين-الإمارات
مكتبتى
رابط مختصر
Sudan is for sale to the highest bidder.
The strategic and tactical implications of this visit and its outcome should not be ignored. First, it would seem that this visit was prompted by two important facts. 1. #Sudan is on the brink of an imminent economic collapse.
Non-public assessments suggest that #Sudan has 30-90 days of reserves for imports left, meaning that things like wheat, diesel and medicine will be in short supply and will become far more expensive. The junta is afraid of the political effects of this on a protest movement they
hoped was losing steam. Hyperinflation/lack of basic commodities will only re-energize and widen the protests. 2 Previous attempts to solicit financial support from friends/Gulf countries have produced no new pledges--even after Hemedti offered UAE RSF services to return to Yemen
Russia appears a last gasp attempt, but its misplaced and dangerous for multiple reasons. Misplaced because, if Hemedti didnt notice, they are at war with Ukraine and about to be cut off from the global economy. Hard to imagine Moscow has hundreds of millions lying around to prop
up Sudan's failing economy. Maybe they would be willing to go on a payment plan to secure their Red Sea naval base, but Sudan would likely be mortgaging that at a fire sale price. Moreover, hard to imagine friends, new and old, like Israel, Egypt and Gulf will be pleased by that.
The opportunity costs of throwing your allegiance to Russia, esp at this moment, would be huge over the long run. But more important, its dangerous given Russia's now very obvious irredentist ambitions in Europe and what that means for its efforts at empire building in Africa.
Giving Russia not just a foothold but an alliance in Sudan, bordering CAR and Libya, would have far reaching effects across the Horn and Sahel and could unlock new Cold War impulses that would destabilize and alter an already fragile region.
Even though Washington and Brussels are preoccupied with events in Europe this week they would be well advised to take steps to prevent a #Russia-#Sudan alliance from being finalized. Given reports that Hemedti's trip was arranged via his Wagner buddies, and not as an official
state visit as reported, suggests there's a chance to play on some natural SAF-RSF divisions. But at the same time that we try to prevent a deal we have to think about creating an alternative. While the West should have no love for the junta, there is love for the Sudanese people
and we should be interested in avoiding an economic crisis that will cause serious harm to a population that has suffered beyond belief. Some creative diplomacy is required to think how we offer Sudan an alternative to the Faustian bargain with Moscow and avoid economic collapse
but in a way that doesnt further entrench the junta or take it off the hook. They must continue to feel the political and economic consequences of their disastrous power grab. And people like Gebreil Ibrahim, who falsely counseled that we would all look past the coup, must not
be proven right by just turning back on international lending. I suspect that Hemedti and friends know precisely how this Moscow trip would be viewed and are hoping that it triggers some kind of counter-response from DC, that includes a pause on sanctions talk.
The bottom line is the junta is auctioning #Sudan for a generation to come to ensure their own short term survival. This might have worked in Bashir's time, when the stakes were lower and the people around him were smarter, but the consequences now would be disastrous. Sudan is
not Mali. An official Russian military outpost on the Red Sea means Russia wont go away when the money runs out, like Wagner. And it means Sudan will be linked for years to come to Putin's Russia, ensuring that the transition to civilian rule becomes even more remote and Sudan's
pivot to the West sinks to the bottom of the Red Sea. Given the dire near and long term implications a potentially "successful" Hemedti visit to Moscow this week, I hope there is enough attention in DC/Brussels to head this off and offer a safe alternative.
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محمد البشرى الخضر
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