Africa in the Grip of Transformations: Coups, Conflicts, and Response Options

07:18 PM December, 14 2025

Sudanese Online
محمد عبدالله ابراهيم-الخرطوم-السودان
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Since 2020, the African continent has witnessed an unprecedented wave of deep instability, including military coups and armed conflicts that have swept through several key countries. These events reflect a structural and systemic crisis in governance patterns while simultaneously revealing pivotal transformations in the continent’s geopolitical and security landscape, alongside escalating international competition using African geography as an open stage. These developments are no longer confined to internal crises resulting from state weakness or the failure of ruling elites; they have become part of a broader geopolitical equation, where global power balances are being reshaped amid the international struggle to move from unipolarity to a multipolar world.

These dynamics have turned several African countries, particularly in the Sahel, West Africa, and the Horn of Africa, into complex conflict arenas where local disputes intersect with international competition over influence, resources, and strategic routes. This has led to serious consequences, including the entrenchment of military rule, the erosion of regional integration frameworks, escalating humanitarian crises, and declining effectiveness of conflict prevention and peacekeeping mechanisms.

Since August 2020, Africa has entered an unprecedented phase of political instability, with military coups sweeping through countries such as Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon, alongside sporadic attempts at military interventions in other states. These unconstitutional shifts are no longer limited to Sahelian countries accustomed to coups and non-constitutional changes; they have extended to new states, indicating that the roots of the crisis and the causes of instability remain unaddressed and have worsened amid the ongoing armed conflicts.

While the world watched for a return to stability, the “coup fever” continued to spread, and the scale of armed conflicts expanded to the extent that Africa now hosts about 40% of active conflicts worldwide, facing the largest global displacement crisis, estimated at approximately 35 million people. This coincides with declining international support, the collapse of peacekeeping operations, and the overlap of regional crises with global conflicts. At the same time, these dynamics reveal the fragility of political systems, highlight catastrophic humanitarian repercussions, and signify profound geopolitical shifts, positioning the continent as a central player in global conflict and reshaping Africa’s political and security map.

The most concerning moment occurred in November 2025, when Guinea-Bissau experienced a sudden military coup coinciding with the final stages of general elections, highlighting the fragility of political systems in West Africa. The timing was not accidental but reflected a recurring pattern where the military moves when civilian elites fail to manage the democratic process transparently, or when doubts arise regarding election integrity, exploiting personal ambitions and hidden interests to become a so-called “last resort” to protect their stakes. This is despite the fact that the vast majority of African armies theoretically remain subordinate to the state system and operate to safeguard it.

In contrast, Benin, long regarded as a model of relative stability, offered a different lesson in December 2025, when an attempted coup was swiftly and effectively thwarted due to combined internal efforts and immediate regional support. Forces from Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire intervened to support the legitimate government, sending a clear message about the capacity of regional deterrence mechanisms to confront military coups.

This contrast between Guinea-Bissau and Benin underscores an important truth: while some countries remain trapped between fragile institutions and an ambitious military, others can restore stability if there is internal will and effective regional coordination. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) appears to be regaining some of its lost credibility, demonstrating that reinstating civilian control in Africa, despite the challenges, remains possible if preventive policies and effective accountability and deterrence mechanisms are in place.

In parallel, military regimes across Africa have continued to consolidate their grip on power, bypassing all transitional and constitutional commitments. In Chad, the military council in March 2025 announced a five-year extension of the transitional period, extinguishing any hope of a near return to civilian rule and affirming that power rests solely with the army. In Sudan, the military component of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, seen as a direct extension of the former regime of deposed President Omar al-Bashir, strengthened its control following the coup against the civilian government led by Dr. Abdalla Hamdok, exploiting internal divisions among civilian forces to entrench its position. This coup further complicated the Sudanese crisis, ultimately leading to a full-scale war since April 15, 2023, which continues to this day.

This pattern reflects a recurring trend in African experiences, particularly since military leaders in power find it extremely difficult to relinquish authority, often justifying their continued hold with formal pretexts such as “completing security and political reforms,” while the reality continues to entrench military dominance over national decision-making and postpones any genuine democratic transition. These practices reveal the fragility of transitional paths and underscore the urgent need for a serious regional and international approach to halt military takeovers and rehabilitate democratic civilian institutions.

Ongoing Conflicts: Humanitarian and Geopolitical Crisis

If coups constitute a political crisis, armed conflicts represent an escalating humanitarian and geopolitical catastrophe and the greatest challenge to regional stability. Against this backdrop, several African countries are experiencing unprecedented deterioration in humanitarian conditions due to ongoing wars and conflicts. Notable cases include:

Sudan: War and Humanitarian Catastrophe

Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a devastating war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The expanding conflict has aggravated the humanitarian crisis, resulting in millions of displacements, infrastructure destruction, and widespread civilian violations. This conflict threatens not only Sudan’s unity but also destabilizes the entire Horn of Africa, posing immense challenges to international efforts aimed at halting the war and protecting civilians.

Sahel Region: Terrorism and International Competition

In the Sahel, terrorist groups continue to threaten security, keeping the region in a state of near-perpetual tension. This situation has prompted international powers to reassess their deployments, with reports indicating a U.S. redeployment in the region, not only to combat terrorism but also in the context of competition over mineral wealth and strategic resources. This geopolitical rivalry exacerbates local conflicts and prolongs them, as crises become leverage in the great powers’ game, alongside declining international relief efforts and the collapse of peacekeeping operations.

Cameroon: Fragile Stability

Although classified as relatively stable, Cameroon experienced widespread unrest in November 2025 following the reelection of President Paul Biya, revealing the fragility of political stability in Central Africa. These events indicate that long-term rule, even if seemingly stable, often conceals deep tensions ready to erupt at any moment, highlighting institutional vulnerability and the difficulty of containing internal conflicts before they escalate into comprehensive crises.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Renewed Conflicts Despite Peace Efforts

In eastern DRC, violence between rebel groups and government forces continues, causing massive displacements and worsening civilian suffering. Despite this, recent international and regional efforts have sought to contain the crisis, notably a peace agreement signed in the United States under Qatari and American auspices, attended by the Congolese president, the Rwandan president, armed opposition leaders, and a number of regional and international mediators. However, the reality on the ground remains complex, with reports indicating continued clashes and escalating displacements, highlighting the fragility of implementing international agreements and the limited capacity of the state to enforce security and protect civilians. These conflicts also intersect with economic and strategic interests, as armed networks control mineral-rich areas, complicating peace efforts and turning the region into a permanent arena of regional and international competition over resources. This reality confirms that the humanitarian crisis in Congo is not merely a reflection of local conflict but an integral part of Africa’s broader geopolitical landscape.

Root Causes and Enabling Environment

The core problem of conflicts in Africa lies in the interaction of three interconnected levels:

1. Internal Factors: Governance and State Crisis

Coups are a direct reflection of the so-called “state crisis.” Widespread corruption and nepotism have led to deteriorating economic and living conditions, generating widespread popular discontent against ruling elites. Constitutional manipulation and attempts to extend terms of office have undermined democracy and blocked peaceful avenues of change, causing civilian governments to lose legitimacy. In addition, security failures in addressing terrorist threats have exposed state fragility and weakened citizens’ trust, providing a key justification for military intervention in politics.

2. Regional Factors: Fragile Frameworks and Institutions

Regional frameworks and weak integration and conflict prevention mechanisms play a pivotal role in sustaining Africa’s crises. The inability of the African Union and regional bodies to control coups and intervene early leaves countries vulnerable to military overreach. Recurring local conflicts erode confidence in regional institutions and reduce the effectiveness of peacekeeping mechanisms. International and regional competition over influence and resources prolongs conflicts, as local crises become tools in great-power politics, complicating solutions and delaying regional stability. The wave of successive coups has created a favorable regional environment for this trend, as the success of a coup in a neighboring country lowers the risks associated with similar attempts, encouraging military actors to take chances. At the same time, the failure of regional sanctions to deter military regimes has reinforced a culture of impunity, while the rise of terrorism and armed conflicts, particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, has complicated the regional landscape and made countries vulnerable to mutual impacts that increase political and security fragility.

3. International Factors: Great Power Competition and Crisis Exploitation

Local conflicts in Africa intersect with the interests of global powers, with the continent seen as an open theater for competition over strategic resources and vital geographic corridors. Military regimes often exploit this competition to strengthen their grip on power, benefiting from support or silence by major powers, which prolongs conflicts and complicates peaceful resolution. Furthermore, the lack of alignment of international support with human rights and democratic governance standards, coupled with declining commitment to peacekeeping, increases the continent’s vulnerability to humanitarian and geopolitical crises, directly contributing to the spread of successive military coups.

Geopolitical Shifts and Anti-Foreign Sentiments

Anti-foreign sentiments, particularly against France, have created an environment conducive to coups. The declining French influence and the association of some civilian governments with it were exploited as justification for coups, portrayed as a “second liberation.” These shifts have also prompted new military regimes to seek alternative partners, most notably Russia, which has increased its influence by providing security support without conditions tied to democracy or good governance. This interplay between local coups and international competition prolongs crises, reduces prospects for sustainable solutions, and transforms coups from exceptional events into recurring patterns, weakening the capacity of regional frameworks to deter and maintain stability.

Regional and International Geopolitical Implications

The recent wave of coups has redrawn the geopolitical map in West Africa, particularly with the emergence of the Sahel Alliance (AES) comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which later became a confederation. In a surprising move, the alliance countries announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2024, striking a major blow to regional integration credibility and threatening to dismantle West Africa’s economic and security system.



At the international level, competition among major powers has escalated, with Russia emerging as the preferred security partner for military regimes, while the West has adopted a cautious stance combining condemnation with maintaining channels of communication. Africa is no longer a peripheral theater but a direct reflection of the struggle between great powers. Military regimes have exploited this international competition to enhance independence from the West and seek alternatives, giving them broad maneuvering space and prolonging their hold on power, in a context reminiscent of a “new Cold War.”

Africa at the Crossroads of Danger and Opportunity

Africa today stands at a crossroads. On one hand, state failure and governance crises continue to open the door to military interventions and coups. On the other, signs of regional resistance, as seen in Benin, offer hope for restoring national initiative. Between those who view coups as an expression of a “new sovereignty” and those who see them as reproducing cycles of military rule that hinder development, the greatest challenge remains ensuring security, legitimacy, political transition, and regional integration. The wave of coups and conflicts in Africa reveals a complex phenomenon inseparable from internal failures and a crisis that transcends national borders, intersecting with deep transformations in the international system. Treating this phenomenon solely as a security or internal issue will lead to further deterioration. Unless the root causes of corruption and poor governance are addressed and the continent is insulated from great-power conflicts, Africa will remain vulnerable to becoming a global conflict hotspot, with immense humanitarian and political costs for its people and for international stability.

Conclusion: Africa’s Future Between Challenge and Hope

Building a better future for Africa and its peoples requires combining short-term security stabilization with sustainable democratic transition over the medium and long term, while taking into account the rapid geopolitical shifts across the continent and the world. This necessitates a comprehensive package of measures at multiple levels, including:

1. At the Level of the African Union and Regional Blocs

There is an urgent need to rebuild the credibility of coup-prevention mechanisms by activating the African Union Peace and Security Council and linking early intervention mechanisms to clear indicators of civilian governance collapse. The shift from general and ineffective sanctions to smart, targeted sanctions against military leaders and supporting economic networks, without harming local communities, is essential. Any recognition or engagement with military regimes should be tied to binding timelines for transitioning to civilian rule, including clear stages and effective regional oversight mechanisms. It is also necessary to support regional mediation initiatives and preventive political missions instead of relying solely on delayed deterrence tools, which often come too late.

2. At the Level of African Governments

Addressing structural crises requires genuine political and economic reforms that tackle the root causes of public discontent, particularly entrenched corruption, high unemployment, and deteriorating essential services. Constitutions must be safeguarded against political manipulation, and the independence of the judiciary and electoral institutions ensured as essential pillars of any democratic path. Security sector reform (SSR) must prioritize restructuring military and security forces under effective civilian and parliamentary oversight, ensuring that armed forces remain under elected civilian authority. Inclusive national dialogues with diverse political and social forces are also necessary to renew the social contract on more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable bases.

3. At the Level of International Partners

The international role must shift from reactive policies to long-term preventive approaches focused on institution-building and state resilience rather than crisis management after their eruption. Security and military support must align with human rights and democratic governance standards and be tied to measurable performance indicators to prevent support from enabling authoritarianism. Humanitarian funding and peacekeeping support should be increased to prevent collapse in fragile conflict zones, alongside coordinated international positions and unified political messaging to limit military regimes’ ability to exploit great-power competition and prolong crises.

4. At the Level of Civil Society and Media

Civil society organizations and independent media must be supported as essential tools for early warning and public accountability. Civic space must be protected from legal and security constraints imposed by military regimes, and local actors, especially women and youth, empowered to play central roles in peacebuilding and trust-building efforts. This includes enhancing their capacity for meaningful participation in policy-making and decision-making, ensuring that civil society remains a cornerstone of stability and democratic transition.



Mohammed Abdallah Ibrahim

[email protected]

Arabic Forum