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Articles and ViewsHemedti and Al Dagalo – in search of a dynasty Dr el-tahir el-faki
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Hemedti and Al Dagalo – in search of a dynasty Dr el-tahir el-faki

04-01-2022, 06:50 PM
Dr.El-Tahir El-Faki
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Hemedti and Al Dagalo – in search of a dynasty Dr el-tahir el-faki

    06:50 PM April, 01 2022

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    Lieutenant General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, nick name “Hemedti”, is the Vice President of the Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. He is glorified the strongest authority now expanding his wealth and ambitions to build a family power dynasty. His military successes today are paralleled economically by his wealth and richness of vast reserves of gold extracted from the gold mines in Darfur and the levies he collects from the military participation of his forces in the war against the Houthis in Yemen. The gold mines in Jabal Aamer provided him with substantial economic profits, privileged social status and political leverage. At the same time, his Mahariya clan have become increasingly extravagant and enjoying lavish life styles despite the profligate and prodigious spending that seems endless.
    His tribe adores him because he exemplifies the so-called nomadic Arab tribal virtues and behaviours believed synonymous with wisdom of noble birth rather than accrued on education and higher academic degrees. His dominance is a different concept in which political power is attained from overwhelming military authority of Al Dagalo not on a ceremonious errand for the tribe. He proved adept at leadership and became militia commander while still in his 30s.
    Of many strokes of good luck that shaped his career and influenced Sudan’s future is the crushing defeat of (JEM) forces in Gozz Dingo and SLA/MM in Darfur in 2014 comes top. The event led to his rise in military power and promotion to the rank of “General” in the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) accountable to former President Bashir alone. The military achievements assured him especial favours and association with Bashir and opened the door for his political fame and ambitions. The second event is his connection with the revolution in 2019 when he refused to obey orders to end the uprising. Hailed a revolutionary legend in the streets of Khartoum, the youths chanted his name and carried placards of him as the saviour of the revolution.
    Now the battle for absolute political power in Sudan is touching a dangerous edge to define the future of the country, either way, to a democratic upcoming or repeat the failures of the previous regimes. It is in this context Hemedti appears on the political scene. The failure of the Sudanese political elites to inspire the nation with parallel political success has left a huge socio-political vacuum that Hemedti is seeking to bridge and fill the void by pursuing a grand vision to unite all the conflicting forces under a patriotic emblem and cajoles them into allegiances to his stance. To do this, he is actively involved in associations with the civil administrations, tribal leaders, armed movements etc. The future of AL Dagalo family is much dependent on how Hemedti’s ambitions are particularly achieved, and whether the RSF can be tamed, contained, incorporated into the Sudanese Armed Forces, or dissolved! The nastiest outcomes is for the RSF to astray and instigate extensive security pandemonium in Sudan and across the borders into neighboring countries of Ethiopia, Libya, Chad, South Sudan, the Central African Republic and Egypt.
    The threats to the dreams and future of Al Dagalo are enormous. By 2017, an intense competition between Hemedti and his close relative Musa Hilal emerged, fuelled by collapse of the relationship between Hilal and President Bashir. As a consequence, Musa Hilal lost his leading position to Hemedti of the Mahariya clan. The humiliation of arrest and imprisonment of Hilal will not be forgotten or forgiven. The rivalry between the kin deepened. The Awakening Council is the political wing representing the Mahameed clan is actively rallying some of the Rizeigat tribes around its own cause while Hemedti has so far preferred to remain a military figure and did not form a political party to represent the Mahariya to contest in future elections. He enforced authoritarian recruitment of Mahariya in top military ranks in the RSF to attain dominance of his family over other tribes. At the same time the participation in the crackdown of the Houthis in the war in Yemen provided valuable military experience and accumulated financial reward.
    Hemedti has built substantial military force and entrusted his elder brother Abdul Rahim Hamdan Dagalo as the Deputy Commander of the RSF in charge. Most of Al Dagalo, young or old have been appointed and endowed with senior military ranks in the RSF. The future of Al Dagalo is entirely dependent on the achievement of Hemedti and his brother Abdul Rahim Hamdan Dagalo and his two sons. If Hemedti is to seize power in Khartoum he will pioneer the birth of a new family dynasty in Sudan.
    It must be known that the RSF is infiltrated by other beneficiary groups some of whom are the security forces and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). As Al Dagalo has taken most of the senior military ranks in the RSF it will be a matter of time for grudges to bud out into internal infighting for titles and military badges. While the Mahariya remain dominant, the other tribes and sub clans may form alliances to try their luck and compete in bloody confrontations since arms are widely available and cheap to purchase.
    It should not be forgotten that the RSF engaged in serious military hostilities against the Darfur armed groups and the SPLA in the Nuba Mountains in extensive bloodshed since its formal establishment in August 2013. A final reconciliation with the above groups has not been secured yet. During the war in Darfur Hemedti was accused of serious war crimes and killings of non-Arab tribes that are still waiting for justice. If this issue is not dealt within the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) it will haunt Hemedti and the Al Dagalo.
    As we have already seen, the bitter fighting for control of the gold mines between Hemedti and Hilal, more competition will emerge when new mines are discovered and other resources may attract further infighting as well.
    The visit Hemedti took to Russia at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine on the 23/02/2022 and his impromptu press statement t welcoming Russian bases in the Red Sea have shaken and unleashed international hornets with serious consequences to follow. The US may seek to curb his military power and financial assets by harsh economic sanctions.
    The serious potential danger to Al Dagalo is that the Sudanese people deep heartily hate the RSF and the public no longer consider him a relevant capital to trust if SAF instigates a coup. The public already knows the role Hemedti played in the 25th October events.
    With these perspective observations, Hemedti is poised to refigure and sway the future of Sudan through his improvised approaches with Israel and carrying through with the major powers and Europeans to tackle illegal immigrations and human trafficking. However, he has to consolidate his own political position in the Sudanese domestic policies and discover peaceful means to address the insecurity and the protracted discontents in the country to pave the way for smooth civic interim period. The paradox is daunting. Where a democratic rule succeeds, Hemedti will no longer enjoy the political or the financial guarantees and a status-quo is not in his favour in the long-term.
    Hemedti’s bold moves in flirting with the Russians, UAE, Saudi and Ethiopia have also drawn him unusual attention and made his political position far more intricate. For the moment he is leading the political tandem and retains firm grip on the levers of executive power with no one out there to challenge. In spite of his best efforts to steer the public towards national sentiments, his stance is confronted with a population that already hates the RSF. As militia leader, Hemedti appropriated the political platforms and dissuades from tribalism by adopting national agendas plus conservative social outlines of Islam. He understands the massive Islamic mobilizing potential in religious events attracts hundreds of thousands of people when called and the easiest way is to ensure he stays away from antagonizing their causes.
    The risks to Al Dagalo deepen by the poor economic indicators facing the country. The family could not continue to induce impecuniously aggrieved communities with petti financial proceeds, hand out gifts and payments to leaders of the native administration and pay-outs into social events. The capability to buy off problems will gradually weaken and with less money to finance the lucrative RSF personnel, competitiveness with SAF becomes unattainable. The decline in RSF well-paid jobs may arouse ethnic hostilities towards his clan and fuels the existing economic and political tensions. In frantic search for a family dynasty the obstacles amplify and toughen to overcome, and the road back for Al Dagalo to the desert will be too long and prickly.




    عناوين الاخبار بسودانيزاونلاينSudaneseOnline اليوم الموافق 04/01/2022



    عناوين المواضيع المنبر العام بسودانيزاونلاين SudaneseOnline اليوم الموافق 04/01/2022


    عناوين المقالات بسودانيزاونلاينSudaneseOnline اليوم الموافق 04/01/2022
                  

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