Sudan Engineers Overcome the Hurdles of Conflict on GERD By Saeed M. Adnan

11:35 PM July, 21 2020

Sudanese Online
سعيد محمد عدنان-UK
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– London – U.K.

Two Sudanese Engineers, Dr. Omer Mohammed Saleh Badé and Dam Engineer Abdul Kafi El Tayib delivered a debate in Sudan on the 19th of July present, complete with necessary maps and drawings in which they displayed their vision on resolving a margin beyond possible feasibility study risks conforming to the risk assessment guidelines in use. It goes along constructing a protection earthen barrier around the base of the Blue Nile, just past the GERD, and before Ruseiris Dam, as an extra margin of Safety. They collated necessary Satellite images for the GERD reservoir and evidence of any activity in the subterranean areas below its project or presence of developing rifts. They also prepared geological topology maps for the area between Roseiris Dam and DERD, envisaging a viable possible bed for a protection barrier lake enclosed within the heights of most ot the hills around it matching the height of GERD, except for the stretch along the north western boundary of it including and around the Blue Nile bed. That portion could be constructed in concrete, which would not be costly. This is for an emergency lest GERD collapsed, or otherwise in opening of the Saddlery Bank or its collapse, curving from outside GERD.
Nevertheless, it is a strategic project that gives mastery to Sudan on its share of the Nile. It will also provide an opportunity to improve the rural environment in East Sudan and its integration with the Ethiopian in this age of globalisation that joined neighbouring communities in global villages, notwithstanding a chance of correction of Sudan’s mismanagement of communal borders into conflicts and wars. I mention this especially that Egypt fanned the concocted disturbance within the Oromo tribe from which the present prime minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed descends as their first in governance, intended to undermine his success, especially his baby the Renaissance Dam meant to lift the living standard of the poorest in Ethiopia, of which the Oromo tribe is an important candidate, thus providing food for collateral plunder then war between the neighbouring communities in Sudan and Ethiopia.
However, water will naturally run along the Blue Nile and the protection lake will work as a buffer zone to absorb any flood that may arise.
Before, engineers from the downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, and any engineering firms they consulted, were in disputes over the technical risks attributed to GERD, and over the credibility of the risks the Egyptian neighbour highlighted in imposing drought and parchedness, and ruining its livelihood, a matter she would consider a political right as a host to the river bed, a political matter which haw its own laws that may be revised or modified, by a political agreement. All that, whatever cost it might incur, or time it needs, is mandatory within the available means or resolution.
Aside from that, Egypt raised a technical issue about the dangers GERD is imposing, being erected on highlands beset with reshaping natural activities of movements of the Nubian, the Somali and the Arabian tectonic plates, 10 million years ago in the wake of Miocene and the advance of The Great Rift in the beginning of the Pleistocene, and what it entailed of volcanoes and tremors, and heat causing fast aridity that rendered rain water forming salty lakes. They took model of the dam constructed over the Omo river pouring in Lake Turcana in Kenya, over the edge of the Somali Plate. They also cited caves scattered within the Ethiopian plateau, envisaging, even assuring thereby GERD would collapse and therefore it is even too risky to start filling it up, lest it instantly bursts. They it an alarm that justified to them, and for the protection of Egypt, hitting the dam if Ethiopia would not give them access to the technical feasibility study of the dam, and involving Egypt in the running of the dam operations, to protect the High Dam in Egypt from surprise surges in the river levels without notice, or even throwing Egypt into Aridity.
Egypt has the right to envisage or vision what she believes, but risk declaration steps is an advanced science internationally recognised; so persistence on farfetched assurances are inequitable. So assurance required must be with an agreed equation:
Size of risk = size of danger x probability of the danger. There is an alternative form of the equation:
Feasibility of risk evasion = cost of risk x probability of the risk
To come to terms with this equation, Ethiopia first co-signed with the river partners a Declaration of Intent, with a sketch and the givens of the available universally adopted data on all what the feasibility study engineers and designers might need, which is incumbent on the project investor to provide to base the talks around, and sign the declaration on the basis of. Signing a D of I then retracting on base the mandatory data was not released could only be expected from negotiators who are unqualified on the Subject they came to negotiate.
Next, Ethiopia can be expected to release a feasibility study prior to placing it for action, a study that would be expected to reveal the financial cost, which is 3.5 billion dollars, and, with the political risks, consequently an overall cost of the risk Ethiopia would face in implementing the project to weigh out the pros and cons. The other dividend holders on the river have no decree on which to base a demand to disclosure of Ethiopia of her feasibility studies, nor has an nation footing the bill of a project would agree to divulge her technical secrets to non-partners of the project.
This is where the political game started, towards ends other than the project risks or the feasibility to avert them. It was blown out as the dam being a serious threat to the being of Sudan and Egypt. If it happens to collapse, it would wipe off both countries, like an atomic bomb, and renders both countries dearth, and for Egypt it would be a matter of being or not to be.
I do not intend to delve into such blatant twisted discussion, but I am here to clarify the technical points that help disperse the cloud of technical risks hanging over the non-partners of GERD losses and burden of insurance.
There may be voids in the rocks as the plateau id known for its ragged terrane.
The Great African Rift extends from Asia Minor to East Africa, forming the Red Sea, and tails into two rifts from the active Afar triangle in East Ethiopia, between Somalia and Eretria: the Nubian Rift that pushes northwards, an the Somali Rift pushing southwards, whilst the third side of the triangle lies parallel to the coast of the Horn of Africa, and constitutes the Great Rift of Africa around the tectonic plate of Arabia, which separated 10 million years ago, and which presses eastwards.
Out of these tensions on the continental crust, the asthenosphere, a plastic layer beneath the continental crust and sea crust, began to thin out with a revealed crack, advancing around the northern side of Victoria lake and Lake Turcana in Kenya, and widening warning of splash of molten Basalt flow from underneath the thin asthenosphere under the Ocean Crust rendering the rift a sea crust with water welcome to form an new sea that separates the Somali Tectonic Plate with part of Uganda, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya and Somali Land, a separate island east of Africa. The Nubian Tectonic Plate remains stable with no seismic activities.
Presence of cavities in the rocks under GERD is possible, but there is no seismic activities. However it would have definitely included in the design of the table under the dam to be supported on strong continuous natural solid build-up of rocks, and could even be reinforced with extra reinforced concrete pillars. It is not much cost or intricate technology to achieve by the construction engineers nor difficult to observe via satellites.
If the screams of S.O.S over the safety of the peoples of Egypt and Sudan were genuine, the first question that would spring to one’s mind would be why hadn’t any of the three negotiating nations raised that alarm at the time of signing th D of E؟ Why would it be correct to contend with an example of the collapse of the Omo River dam to exemplify a case of danger on the Blue Nile؟ But it was a ‘Wolf/ Wolf’ call, which Egypt yelled when Sennar Dam was about to be constructed in the second decade of the last century, when Blue Nile Dam was designed to hold 14 billion cubic meters, and now when it was upgraded to 74 billion C.M.
The Protection Barrier is assessed to be of 8 kilometres long (bearing in mind that GERD’s total length is 7 kilometres), and sketch of an envisaged hydroelectric generating plant of 3000 megawatt output is prepared.
The Debate was successful with full support of the attendees who took covering shots of it to break its news in Facebook.
The vital point of the subject of debate is that Hounding Fear from the project is annulled, for GERD is not a water rationing project, and as we mentioned many times before it has no capacity to hold a whole year’s supply of water, let alone to pile up years of it. Its function is the hold off excessive rain water in flood seasons harmful to the Nile dams all along, together with filtering off huge trees and animals adrift with the powerful floods, and decanting the huge pile of sediment that the Nile bed would not be flattened. This free service GERD is giving to all the partners lend Ethiopia a pay back with flood waters stored in the dam and used to generate electricity for the applicant of the project.
This reserved water could be of great help in the dry seasons to provide emergency help for the downstream countries, but goodwill has to be established, because it cannot be mandatory, as the normal river annual delivery is not abused by the source country.
As to the Protection Lake proposed by these engineers, Sudan would reap a great benefit from the gathering sedimentation, and of availing a storage space for Sudan’s full share of water, and improving the agricultural system in the East of Sudan, including an increase in its agronomy cycles. Use of Sudan’s share of 11C.M., Egypt continued to borrow and later denied can be mastered too; plus saving half the 15 C.M. of water calculates as evaporation for the High Dam of which Egypt charged Sudan as a partner in erecting the High Dam, which partnership never paid Sudan any dividend, in electricity or irrigation, or at least rent of its flooded lands by the Dam.
Add to that the feeding of underground water network all the year round instead of during flood seasons only. And if GERD collapses or had to be bypassed, Sudan can still save Sudan’s share of water, on top of the lake would act as a buffer zone to save all the dams in the Nile, including the High Dam. This certainly is not the favourite song for Egypt.
Egypt used to sing to Sudan ‘Egypt and Sudan are brothers’; it is high time Sudan would stand its height to protect its own rights, which it revolted for.
This is a brief introduction to the benefits of GERD, and its risks, which are not there, and the rights of protecting against anticipated risks, which is the job of the anticipator, of which he would be compensated from if it turned to be justifiable. The Sudanese Engineers here managed to provide a good example of such an anticipation to damp such conflicts. For the ground of that is built on a universal consensus, and which does not cancel nor deplete the rights of one seeking more assurance to seek it at one’s own cost, or redeem it from the contractor if successful managed to prove the contractor had not done the full investigation or did a wrongful assessment, and negotiate compensation.
I am writing this not on the basis that diverting from this orderly procedure is a lack of ingenuity, but rather a sly political con, but along the dictionary of amicable relationships, it is rather a vulgar animosity.
My Thanks are extended to Dr. Abdul Azim M. Saleh, who had been in continual contact with me to discuss the project GERD, exchanging studies and opinions, together with his active associate in this common concern, with a special tribute to Dr. Ahmed Al Mufti who is very involved in resolving this issue of regional concern.
Below is also the URL link to an excellent paper on GERD by the international Water Expert Selman Mohammed Selman in his comments on the statement of Mr. Fahmi Hueidi over the benefits from GERD in Al Jezira website and Al Nilin website: https://www.alnilin.com/695961.htmhttps://www.alnilin.com/695961.htm

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