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 Re: آخر التقارير عن سوق العقار في الخرطوم Real Estate (Re: Elawad Eltayeb)
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Foreign Visitors Spending
GDP per capita stands at US$2,227 according to purchasing power parity, but real earnings remain far below this, averaging approximately US$650 per month
The 3,000m² Afra Centre is Khartoum’s only existing mall Average monthly rents range between US$40 and $70 per m²
Limited provision of leasable retail space, unlikely to exceed 5,000 m², will be released into the market between 2008 and 2010
Khartoum’s retail offering is very limited, and consists of a relatively small shopping mall,
the Afra Centre, located in south eastern Khartoum - and a number of shopping nodes on certain streets of the city. These shopping nodes are predominantly comprised of small stores, usually on the street level of mixed use buildings, with a few stand-alone shops spread indiscriminately across the city. GDP per capita stands at US$2,227 according to purchasing power parity (EIU - 2008), but real earnings remain far below this, averaging approximately US$650 per month. Although a sizeable expatriate community does exist, this segment does not constitute a significant demand driver for the retail market, as evidenced by low footfall levels at the Afra Centre. Comprising a total built up area of 6,000m² and gross leasable area of 3,000m², the Afra Centre cannot be regarded as a shopping mall in the contemporary sense.
Based on shopping centre categories as defined by the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centres), the mall falls within the definition of a neighbourhood convenience centre. Stagnant economic growth, minimal purchasing power and high trade tariffs continue to limit retail
development. No developer has sought to replicate the standalone retail mall concept in
Khartoum thus far, preferring to opt for retail provision attached to forthcoming mixed-use,
residential, commercial and hospitality developments. An arguable exception to this, though not strictly a standalone retail development, is the 12,000m² community centre that is a component of the Al-Yasmine residential development. Although unconfirmed as yet, retail provision within the Almogran CBD will be far greater, amounting to 120,000m² of space on the lower levels of
office and residential buildings. The Burj AlFateh, also known as the Libyan Hotel in
reference to its investors, will offer smaller retail provisions, amounting to 2,800 m² on
the ground and first floor when completed.
The shopping mall concept does not appear to have enjoyed the success initially envisaged.
The standard of fit-out, stock levels and stock variety of outlets surveyed by Colliers
International were found to be well below that found in GCC malls, which is perhaps
unsurprising given the difference in disposable income and consumer product availability.
More surprising were poor footfall levels, ranging between 5,000 visitors during the week to 15,000 during the weekend, with only 20% of visitors actually doing any shopping, pointing to a discrepancy with the target market and actual visitors. Rates for leasing space remain high due to a lack of alternatives for brands operating within the centre, with average monthly rents ranging between US$50 and $80 per m².
Based on planned forthcoming supply of retail space outlined above, Colliers International
estimates that close to 170,000m² of leasable retail space will be released into the market by
2013. Applying a 3% population growth rate in line with current trends to Metropolitan
Khartoum’s current estimated population of 6 million, provides a figure of over 7 million by
2013. We therefore forecast a GLA per capita of approximately 0.02m² within the next six
years. This indicates considerable undersupply of retail space, further emphasised by the fact
that supply within Almogran accounts for almost 90% of the total. A more conservative
GLA per capita estimate that only accounts for population growth in Khartoum proper, estimated at 1.18 million in 2013, results in a GLA per capita of 0.11m², further emphasising this potential. Local retail analysts believe that Khartoum North requires at least two malls of 10,000m² each, whilst Omdurman requires three, all aimed at the middle income segment.
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Elawad Eltayeb
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست