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 Re: مصر ترجع الي دولة الجنرال الواحد مقال من ال BBC (Re: بدر الدين احمد موسى)
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The July coup: From 2013 to 1954?
The July 2013 coup could lead Egypt into several bleak scenarios.
They are not certain, but the future of Egypt's democracy is certainly in danger.
When elected institutions are removed by military force, past patterns show that the outcome is almost never favourable to democracy: outright military dictatorship, military-domination of politics with a civilian facade, civil war, civil unrest or a mix of all of the above.
A few highlights include Spain in 1936, Iran in 1953, Chile in 1973, Turkey in 1980, Sudan in 1989, and Algeria in 1992.
The July coup is a backward step for democratic civilian-military relations.
Even more worrying are its regional implications.
The message sent by the coup to Libya, Syria, Yemen and beyond is that of militarising politics: only arms guarantee political rights, not the constitution, not democratic institutions and certainly not votes.
In the end, what remains certain is that no democratic transition is complete without targeting abuse, eradicating torture, ending exclusion, and annulling the impunity of security services, with effective and meaningful civilian control of both the armed forces and the security establishment.
This will always be the ultimate test of Egypt's democratic transition.
Dr Omar Ashour is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics and Security Studies at the University of Exeter.
He is non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center and the author of The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements and From Good Cop to Bad Cop: The Challenge of Security Sector Reform in Egypt.
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بدر الدين احمد موسى
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست