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 Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل (Re: SARA ISSA)
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The NCP's worst nightmare is now unfolding. Many of the party's adversaries, traditional and new, on the periphery of the country are now coalescing around the SPLM. During and just after the Sirte peace talks, the southerners undertook a major effort to unite Darfur's 27 rebel groups. The goal was not simply to facilitate the Darfur peace process, which was paralyzed by infighting among the rebels, but also to create a political and military alliance among all the marginalized groups that oppose the NCP. The SPLM even brought to Juba Sheik Musa Hilal, the notorious organizer and commander of the Janjaweed militias, who is reportedly facing potential indictment for war crimes. Hilal had grown disillusioned with NCP leaders for getting his tribe to do their dirty work and because he believed they would turn him over to the International Criminal Court to save themselves. (The NCP's panicked response to the southerners' overture was to offer Hilal a senior position in the national government; he accepted.) An anti-NCP alliance has been forming for some time at the country's colleges and universities, traditional bellwethers of political opinion.
The power shift between the north and the south is also evident in the evolution of the two sides' relative military strength. Unlike the totalitarian dictatorships of Kim Jong Il in North Korea and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the NCP does not have an absolute monopoly on the use of violence at home. The SPLM's sizable army has had more than two decades of guerrilla experience. By the mid-1990s, it was regularly defeating conventional Sudanese government military units, and by 2001 it was threatening Khartoum's control over key oil fields. Western intelligence has consistently underestimated the force's capability and overestimated the importance of international pressure on the NCP's decision to start negotiating an end to the north-south conflict in 2002. In fact, Khartoum was simply losing: the conflict was draining the central government's coffers, and southern rebels were endangering the oil fields; the annual costs of the war reportedly exceeded the value of the oil revenues that the north now sends to the south each year. The NCP calculated that signing the peace agreement would increase the chances of its own survival.
Since then, three factors have seriously weakened the NCP and its armed forces. First, more than a thousand officers who had been trained in the West or displayed strong leadership skills were forced into early retirement in 2005 and 2006 because they were seen as the group most likely to lead a coup against the NCP. The move not only purged the military of potential traitors; it stripped it of its best senior commanders. Second, tens of thousands of enlisted men who came from Darfur and refused to fight their fellow Darfuris were also removed and have been replaced with the terrifying but ill-trained Janjaweed cavalry. Third, repeated defeats on the battlefield have thoroughly demoralized the troops. In August 2006, Bashir ordered a major military offensive in the hope of defeating the Darfur rebels once and for all, even though his generals had strongly advised against it. It turned into a major embarrassment: in every battle, Khartoum's army was roundly defeated. The central government's modest air force still has a monopoly on airpower, and the north's armored units are much stronger than those of the southern force. But if Napoleon was right in saying that three-quarters of military power is morale, Khartoum now has limited power. According to Human Rights Watch and Jane's Defense Quarterly, the NCP has tried to make up for in new technology what it lacks in personnel, purchasing billions of dollars' worth of new weapons systems from China, Iran, and states in the former Soviet bloc. This is a strategy of desperation, for these weapons are unlikely to give the north the military edge it wants -- especially not over the SPLM's army, which is far more motivated and which, thanks to U.S. government assistance, is increasingly becoming capable of defending its territory.
The NCP has other reasons to feel vulnerable. The Nile River Arabs, who represent about five percent of the country's population, fear that even the Arab triangle is at risk of being overtaken by the southerners who migrated to the north during the civil war. Judging by the people walking the streets of Khartoum in 1989, the year of my first visit, the city was Arab; now it seems pronouncedly African. President Bashir has remarked privately that he may end up being the last Arab president of Sudan. Even Arabs who oppose the regime say they are uneasy about their future. About 1.6 million of the southerners displaced by the civil war have returned home, but another two million have opted to stay in the north, even with the Arabs pressuring them to leave and the southern government urging them to return home. Now, the streets of Khartoum are pervaded by a combination of fear and anger -- fear of what might happen if war resumes and anger over alleged intrigues and broken commitments. When Garang died in a helicopter accident in July 2005, many southern migrants in Khartoum rioted, killing Arabs and burning and #####ng their businesses, because they believed he had been assassinated. Arabs still talk about these incidents, and NCP leaders are terrified. The government regularly conducts house-to-house searches for weapons. During the early stages of the Darfur crisis, the NCP circulated stories alleging that a conspiracy was brewing in Khartoum among university students from one of the rebelling Darfur tribes. It rounded up the suspects for interrogation, and they have since disappeared into the Sudanese prison system. Some senior NCP leaders now refer to the southerners as a cancer on the country and say they would welcome the south's secession. Such a sentiment was inconceivable a year ago, when the NCP's unrelenting refrain was that Western powers were doing too little to encourage the country's unity.
The situation is volatile. Hard-liners in the south may be tempted to provoke a confrontation with the north based on the belief that their transformed army can dominate the battlefield. Some of them are now resisting a compromise on Abyei and making maximalist demands. Meanwhile, the NCP, which feels that the north is increasingly vulnerable to an invasion by southern forces, has been mobilizing the Arab militias that committed atrocities against southerners during the civil war. It has also been trying to exacerbate divisions within the south -- between the doves and the hawks in the SPLM, between the dominant Dinkas and smaller tribes, between people with privileged access to jobs and power in Juba and people who suffer the effects of poverty, widespread corruption, and inadequate public services. Because of the north's declining military preparedness, growing opposition to the NCP on its own turf, and fear among the party's leaders that they are losing control, the Nile River Arabs have developed a siege mentality, which will complicate any attempt to solve Sudan's crisis.
THE WRONG WAY
If the north continues to obstruct the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the south will surely go to war. And if the fighting resumes, Khartoum will not be able to confine the conflict geographically, as it has in the past: with a new locus of political and military power in Juba supported by a large army, the war would come to Khartoum very quickly, likely causing large casualties on both sides and potentially widespread retributive violence.
Sudan's collapse would mean far more than a massive humanitarian emergency; it would also mean a security and economic disaster. Disintegration could destabilize Sudan's nine neighbors -- including oil-rich Chad and Libya and the United States' allies Egypt and Ethiopia -- by sending masses of refugees beyond its borders and drawing in dangerous groups. Bin Laden was based in Sudan in the early 1990s, and in 2007 al Qaeda threatened to send holy warriors to fight any UN peacekeepers that might be deployed to Darfur. The economic consequences of Sudan's collapse would also be serious. Sudanese oil currently represents a modest but rising share of the world's total supply; some oil engineers claim that Sudan may have the largest unexplored reserves in the world. If shipments to China, India, Malaysia, and Sudan's other major clients were precipitously halted, these countries would seek oil elsewhere, forcing up world prices of crude, as well as the cost of gasoline to Americans.
Given the stakes, the U.S. government's overarching strategic objective in Sudan should be to slow down the forces of dissolution before it is too late. So far, the United States' Sudan policy has been hampered by its alternating between an ideological crusade to rid Sudan of the reviled NCP and a pragmatic approach that promotes gradual reform. Washington pursued regime change in the 1990s, confronting and seeking to isolate Khartoum; pragmatism drove the more recent negotiations that yielded the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
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| العنوان |
الكاتب |
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| بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل !!! | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 12:20 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | hamam | 06-03-08, 12:30 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 12:50 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 01:01 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 01:07 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 01:11 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 01:13 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حامد جمعه | 06-03-08, 01:20 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 01:20 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | Tragie Mustafa | 06-03-08, 01:28 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 02:23 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حامد جمعه | 06-03-08, 02:29 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 02:35 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | كمال علي الزين | 06-03-08, 02:35 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حامد جمعه | 06-03-08, 02:40 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 02:56 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 02:43 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | كمال علي الزين | 06-03-08, 02:54 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 02:58 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | كمال علي الزين | 06-03-08, 05:06 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | nazar hussien | 06-03-08, 03:09 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | العوض المسلمي | 06-03-08, 03:10 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | العوض المسلمي | 06-03-08, 03:07 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | nazar hussien | 06-03-08, 03:14 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 03:43 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حامد جمعه | 06-03-08, 03:45 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 03:53 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حامد جمعه | 06-03-08, 03:58 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد الطيب محمد | 06-03-08, 04:01 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-03-08, 04:07 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | كمال علي الزين | 06-03-08, 04:56 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | abdu abdalla | 06-03-08, 05:09 PM |
 Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | ahmed haneen | 06-04-08, 06:36 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | عمران حسن صالح | 06-04-08, 06:53 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | hamam | 06-04-08, 08:51 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-04-08, 08:58 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | محمد حسن العمدة | 06-04-08, 09:33 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | عبود عبد الرحيم | 06-04-08, 10:44 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-04-08, 10:57 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | عبود عبد الرحيم | 06-04-08, 11:04 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-04-08, 11:07 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | عبود عبد الرحيم | 06-04-08, 11:17 AM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | عمر التاج | 06-04-08, 02:14 PM |
| Re: بالفعل حاجة غريبة ..يختفي د. خليل يظهر محمد حامد جمعة ..يختفي محمد حامد جمعة يظهر د.خليل | SARA ISSA | 06-04-08, 02:55 PM |
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