Dr. Omer A. El-Garrai*
Gloomy Scenarios Violence from the government side will produce more violence in a situation where different militias still have their guns.
Expected scenarios of the future of Sudan are very gloomy. The NCP is in a hurry to make, and win, the elections by any means. It announced the start of registration in the first day of November without showing people the centers of registration, for instance.
The NCP wants to deprive its opponents from registration to disable them from voting. If the other parties boycott the elections as they promised, the NCP is expected to be harsh on them using the same oppressive laws to contain any movement of the opposition against it.
Violence from the government side will produce more violence in a situation where different militias still have their guns. Chaos and instability might happen due to the unfair elections, even before the referendum.
If a new war erupts, Khartoum will be the battlefield, as representatives of all fractions, including those of Darfur repels, are now in Khartoum. Fragmentation, as of the Somali scene, is one possible alternative.
The NCP has neither intention nor time to change laws or solve the Darfur problem. The African Union Panel on Darfur (AUPD), chaired by former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki, has submitted its report to the African Union last week. The report urges the government of Sudan to establish:
First, Comprehensive, independent and integrated national criminal justice processes, which shall include investigations and re‐invigoration of all aspects of the Special Criminal Court on the Events in Darfur (SSCED) as the principal forum for delivering criminal justice for crimes relating to the conflict in Darfur.
Second, A Hybrid Criminal Court, which shall exercise original and appellate jurisdiction over individuals who appear to bear particular responsibility for the gravest crimes committed during the conflict in Darfur, and to be constituted by judges of Sudanese and other nationalities.
The United States of America also sets the peace in Darfur, the democratic transformation and implementation of the CPA as conditions for positive future relationship with the government of Sudan.
On the other hand, the UN is using the resolution of the ICC to push towards change that might bring real peace and democracy to the country. Increasing pressure by the International Community is part of another expected scenario that might undermine any expected bloodshed in Sudan.
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Dr. Omer A. El-Garrai is a human rights activist with a socio-economic background. He gradated from University of Khartoum (1977), and worked at different departments of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning before joining the university again to get his Master degree in Agricultural Economics (1987). He worked as a researcher at Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS) and then, joined Ohio University and received master degree in international studies with concentration on feminism and politics in Africa (1997). The College of Education at the same university has awarded him PhD in curriculum and instruction (2000). Both degrees were conferred on him with a distinction.
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