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 Conducting Elections in Darfur:Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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Conducting Elections in Darfur:
Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
AUTHOR
Stephanie Schwartz
March 2009
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
1200 17th Street NW, Suite 200
Washington, DC 20036-3011
www.usip.org
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
1
INTRODUCTION
With elections planned in Sudan in 2009, the question of how residents of the
Darfur region should participate points to a number of challenges that remain
unanswered. Is the security situation in Darfur adequate to permit elections? With
so many Darfurians displaced in IDP camps, are elections feasible? How can the
widespread skepticism about elections among the population of Darfur be
overcome? Can national elections in Sudan be credible without the inclusion of
Darfur? Can Sudan’s electoral law be implemented in Darfur? What electoral
processes can be adopted to overcome these various obstacles?
The United States Institute of Peace recently convened a workshop to discuss
these issues and examine if and how elections can be held in Darfur.
Presentations were given by Jarrett Blanc, Charles Callanan (UNOPS), Kåre
Vollan and Gerard McHugh (Conflict Dynamics International). This USIPeace
Brief summarizes the issues discussed at the workshop, including the technical
challenges election organizers will face, issues concerning implementing the
National Election Law in Darfur, and the extent to which elections in Darfur may
contribute to minority inclusion and political accommodation in Sudanese politics.
BACKGROUND
The 2005 Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between North and
South Sudan requires elections across all levels – local, state and national – by
July 2009. Preparations for these elections have been slowly inching along. The
National Election Act, passed in July 2008, was supposed to be enacted in 2006.
The National Election Commission was only appointed in late 2008, and the
census, meant to be completed by July 2007, was undertaken in April/May 2008
but results have yet to be released.
As the CPA deadline for elections approaches, the question of how Darfur can
and should participate remains unclear. The region is still experiencing violent
conflict, with millions displaced and living in IDP camps and refugee camps in
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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neighboring Chad. However, the specific challenges for elections in Darfur were
not sufficiently addressed in the CPA or in the National Elections Act, and it has
yet to be specified how elections will accommodate Darfuris.
ARE ELECTIONS IN DARFUR FEASIBLE?
From an elections logistics standpoint, holding elections in an area of ongoing
conflict is possible, but not recommended. Without a peace agreement, the
campaigning, election preparations and election day operations will take place in
the midst of a civil war. Election teams can establish a voting infrastructure, from
designating polling places to acquiring ballot boxes and drawing up ballots in an
insecure environment, and have done so in other post-conflict and conflict
situations, including Iraq, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
They can also feasibly establish an electoral infrastructure, including the electoral
staff, operational logistics, and transportation of materials. This process will
require time and extensive planning, and Sudan’s National Elections Commission
has not yet made an official request to the United Nations or international
partners for elections assistance.
While establishing voting and electoral infrastructure may be difficult but feasible,
securing the environment for electoral activities, making it safe for parties to hold
rallies, for candidates to campaign with freedom of movement and expression,
and for citizens to register and go to the polls on election day will require political
will from both the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Darfurian opposition
movements. Evidence thus far from the implementation of the census shows that
the GoS has been extremely slow to take on preparations for the elections, and
that competing priorities are a significant barrier to government action. Without
an active commitment from the government and the opposition movements to
hold free, fair and non-violent elections, the elections will not be successful.
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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IF ELECTIONS ARE HELD IN DARFUR, WHAT WILL THEY ACHIEVE?
The degree to which elections in Darfur will contribute to the inclusion of minority
voices in the Sudanese legislative process depends on the Sudanese electoral
framework established in that National Elections Act (2008). This Act specifies
the electoral system to be used in each of the following elections:
• President of the Republic
Direct majority vote with run-off between the two leading candidates within
60 days if no candidate gets more than 50% in the first round
• President of the Government of Southern Sudan
Same as the President of the Republic
• Governors of each State
Direct plurality vote (first past the post)
• Members of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA)
450 Members to be elected in three races:
1) 270 seats (60%) elected using majoritarian system in single-member
constituencies (First-past-the post)
2) 112 seats (25%) women elected at state level in closed proportional
representation (PR) lists
3) 68 seats (15%) elected at state level in closed PR political party lists.
• Members of the South Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA)
Number of members determined after census; elections follow a three
race system similar to the NLA
• Members of the 25 State Legislative Assemblies
Number of members as per state constitution to be elected in three race
system similar to the NLA
• Council of States
Two members from each state elected in State Legislative Assemblies by
block vote (two Observers elected by the Council of Abyei by block vote)
• Single Member Constituencies
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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Based upon census data. Will generally be different geographic
constituencies for return or representatives to state and national levels
assemblies in both the North and South
While elections for president and governors are likely to be less problematic,
elections for Members of the national and state legislatures are based on a
combined plurality-proportional system, with 60% of the seats elected from
single-member geographic constituencies, 25% of the seats going to women
elected at state level in closed PR lists, and the remaining 15% going to other
representatives elected at the state level in closed PR political party lists. This is
an extremely complicated framework, and potentially unworkable under current
conditions. Under this law, carrying out elections on all levels will require no less
than twelve ballots in the South and eight in the North, with the potential for
additional run-off ballots. The single seat constituencies that will return 60% of
the members of the legislative assemblies may also be different across on the
state and national levels, adding to the complications of registering voters,
creating candidate lists, campaigning and facilitating the vote on election day.
The election law presents particular problems for Sudan’s millions of internally
displaced persons (IDPs), many of whom are originally from Darfur and may be
sympathetic to opposition movements. The electoral law requires prospective
voters to register in the constituency where they have lived for the last three
months and present some form of personal identification. The registration lists
will then be published three months prior to the election. This means that unless
provisions are put in place, IDPs would have to relocate to their homes or resettle
at least six months before the election to vote in their home constituencies – a
highly unrealistic expectation.1 In reality, IDPs will likely have to vote in their
current place of residence. Because those who were displaced are more likely to
be opposed to the government, spreading their votes across the constituencies
where they are currently living may skew the vote in Darfur in favor the of the
more pro-government forces who remain.
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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Additionally, the number of geographic constituencies for electing representatives
to the National and State Assemblies will be based on the census conducted in
April and May 2008. However, the census did not cover many areas in Darfur,
including the IDP camps. Consequently, the number of constituencies allocated
to where IDPs are now located are likely to misrepresent their actual size, and
IDPs living in camps will likely become a much smaller voice in Darfur’s singlemember
districts.
In addition to the potential for disenfranchisement of the IDP population, the
framework as it stands, with single-seat constituencies, presents a significant
obstacle to the inclusion of minority voices. As opposed to multi-seat
constituencies, where proportional representation would enable representations
of different views within each district, a single seat constituency means that the
candidate with the most votes will win the only seat. In the north and south, these
districts will be largely homogenous in terms of political support for either the
NCP or the SPLM, and therefore the single-member district will not present a
significant obstacle. However, in Darfur political support is mixed. Therefore,
without the representation of the IDPs, the final vote will likely reflect a skewed
majority.2
Even if IDPs and other minority supporters voted in their current locations for a
single party, because their presence is so dispersed the single-seat
constituencies prevent them from gaining a seat. A 2007 study conducted by
Tufts on IDP profiling showed that IDPs comprise 18-23% of the population in
Khartoum.3 However, only one district in Khartoum, Omdurman, has a majority of
IDPs.4 Therefore, unless carefully drawn, the single seat constituencies might
marginalize these IDP voters.
Considering the complexity of the electoral law, the strong majority required to
win one of the single-member constituency seats, and the potential
disenfranchisement of IDPs, it is unlikely that under the current system a
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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delegation of representatives from Darfur could influence the legislative agenda.
In fact, given current population estimates for North and Southern Sudan it is
most likely that the NCP will retain a majority of seats in the NLA. Decision
making in the NLA is determined by a simple majority vote, therefore minority
voices are likely to remain powerless in the official legislative process.
Resigned to a minority role, opposition movements in Darfur have little to no
incentive to participate in elections.
PRESENTERS' RECOMMENDATIONS
The following recommendations were drawn from the four presentations at
USIP’s workshop. However, they do not reflect a consensus opinion among the
presenters.
Given the security constraints, lack of potential political accommodation and
minimal incentives for opposition movements to participate, the question remains
if elections should be held in Darfur. The elections will most likely not be free, fair
and inclusive without a peace agreement prior to the election. However, the
majority of experts agreed that at least some elections must still be held in
Darfur. Because the CPA requires elections, and absent a postponement
decision by the CPA partners, a national election will be held. If those elections
do not include Darfur, either side may reject the results as illegitimate and the
situation may become worse.
With this mandate in mind, a number of measures can help ensure that elections
in Darfur are as free, fair and inclusive election as possible.
• Consociational Agreement and Enhanced Decision-Making Procedures
In order to provide for political accommodation and create incentives for
opposition movements to participate in and trust the elections, political leaders in
government and opposition movements need to establish arrangements that
would allow at least conditional amendments to the current election system.
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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Similar to the proportional representation arrangements in the Belfast Agreement
(1998) in Northern Ireland and the post-Transition Constitution of Burundi (2005),
these amendments would put enhanced decision-making procedures in place to
support the elections and bolster legitimacy, and may even have a limited
duration. These mechanisms could include proportional representation of political
parties or ethnic groups, requirements that key decisions pass with crosscutting
community support, and the requirement of a two-thirds majority for passing
legislation. With these enhanced-decision making rules in place, there is an
improved chance to convince all parties involved that they will have something to
gain in the elections, and that they have a chance to be represented at the
national level.
In addition, this agreement could stipulate that for the 2009 elections certain
aspects of the election law be simplified in order to ease the process in areas still
experiencing conflict. For instance, these amendments could reduce the number
of ballots and could ensure that the constituency districts have the same
boundaries across the local, state and national levels.
For the upcoming election it is also necessary to ensure that IDPs have the
opportunity to register to vote as residents of their district of origin. This means
that included in the consociational agreement would be measures that allow
exemptions for IDPs from the current requirements and instead provide a
separate mechanism for ensuring IDP registration in their home constituencies.
• Civic education and confidence building measures
As it stands, the election law is extremely complex. The National Elections
Commission and election engineers will have to start working with the political
parties and civil society as soon as possible to help them learn and navigate the
system. This will help the movements build confidence that their voices can be
represented through elections and will also establish expectations of what the
elections can and cannot accomplish.
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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In addition to working with the political parties and movements, there needs to be
an extensive civic and voter education program so that every actor who wants to
participate has as many opportunities as possible to get information, advice, and
guidance on how to access the process. While Sudan has held a number of
elections in the past, historically voters have not had to worry about advanced
registration, computerized ballots or a multiple ballot election with complicated
district demarcations. In the upcoming election voters will need to know, and
trust, the ins and outs of the complicated system, from registering at least three
months prior to the election to figuring out which ballots they will be casting on
the state, local and national levels. Without extensive voter education, the results
will likely not be accepted as legitimate.
• Logistics and Security
Given the operational experience from the census and the difficult logistics and
operations requirements for electoral preparations, from a purely operational
standpoint, election in July is a deadline difficult to achieve. Preparations must
be done carefully and take into account that at up to 50% of the southern villages
are inaccessible by road during the rainy season between approximately March
and November. Experience from the Census shows that mobilization of trained
workers and delivery of materials is exceedingly difficult during these times. The
optimal time for national operations from a mobility perspective is the dry season
(December to March). While the effects of the wet season in Darfur are limited, it
could limit access for many Darfuris to participate in what would hope to be fully
inclusive nationwide elections.
For all operations, feasible timelines need to be put into place to ensure costs are
reduced and plans can be carried out successfully. From this point on, elections
officers need to begin making all the necessary arrangements, from shipping
ballot boxes to establishing political party lists. One especially contentious issue
that remains is that constituency boundaries have not yet been drawn.
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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The experience in Afghanistan was that national and provincial elections took
place as the boundaries had been delineated. However the more contentious
district boundaries are still yet to be agreed on, four years after the last set of
elections. As it stands there, district elections have not yet taken place and
agreement on district boundaries is some time off.
When conducting elections in areas in Darfur where the conflict is ongoing, every
aspect of the elections process will be a security issue. Election staff will need
the full support of government officials, and will have to balance the precarious
task of designating which security officials (peacekeepers, national military, local
police, etc.) will participate in which elections operations. The elections that have
had the most success in this respect have made security arrangements where
international and state military officials have provided area security, local police
provide specific point security, and election staff run the voting sites. Where there
are not enough local police, as was the case in much of Afghanistan, security
may be dependant on reaching agreements with local leaders to ensure their
community security on election day. With this in mind, election officials will need
to go as far out into the communities as possible to make these security
“contracts” with the local population.
• Transparency
In the areas where it will be absolutely impossible to conduct elections due to
limited access and security, it is vital that election officials are extremely
transparent and communicate with these communities as to what they can
expect from the election process. This can help ensure that expectations match
outcomes. For example, in the 2005 Iraqi elections two provinces were still
experiencing violent conflict and elections could not be held in many
communities. In Anbar province election managers clearly communicated the
situation with the community and the results were accepted. In Ninnawa,
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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however, the situation was not clearly and widely explained and the results were
eventually rejected.
Mechanisms can also be put in place to allow for interim representation in
districts where elections are not feasible.
• Early Planning
The day of the election is the culmination of months, if not years, of work and
preparation. If the NEC officially requests international assistance, the
international election team will need to become familiar with the situation on the
ground as soon as possible and begin working to gain community support.
The legitimacy of the election will hinge on how the pre-election process is
perceived. If there is significant violence, intimidation, or restrictions on freedom
of movement or campaigning, no matter how smoothly the election day
operations run the results will not be accepted as legitimate.
• Government Cooperation
All of these stipulations will require cooperation from the Government of Sudan.
From a logistical standpoint, electioneers will need support in establishing
security and logistics, such as approving visas for staff and getting the required
equipment through customs. On a political level, maintaining security and an
atmosphere conducive to free and fair elections will require full government
support for the elections process.
CONCLUSIONS
Barring the achievement of a peace agreement for Darfur before the elections,
these recommendations may provide for the best-case scenario for holding
elections in Darfur. While a consociational agreement may be able to provide for
the political accommodation of a Darfurian voice in the national area, the
question remains as to how elections might contribute to repairing the social
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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framework within Darfur itself. The conflict in Darfur relates in part to inter-tribal
and inter-ethnic relations. It remains unclear how elections may affect this
dynamic. However, if minorities in Darfur do not believe that their voices will be
fairly represented and they reject the legitimacy of elections, existing tensions will
likely be exacerbated. If, on the other hand, election organizers are able to build
trust among the Darfurian minorities that their voices will be heard, and help them
access the elections process, the elections may instead provide a significant step
forward in the peace process.
1 McHugh, Gerard “Electoral Reform in Sudan and Prospects for Peace in Darfur: Implications of
The National Elections Act 2008 for the Darfur Political Process” (Conflict Dynamics International,
2008).
2 Ibid.
3 Jacobsen, Karen “Internal Displacement to Urban Areas--the Tufts-IDMC Profiling Study, Case
1 Khartoum, Sudan”, (Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, in collaboration with
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva, 2008)
4 Ibid.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
This USIPeace Briefing was written by Stephanie Schwartz of the Center for
Mediation and Conflict Resolution. The views expressed here are not necessarily
those of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
ABOUT THE CENTER FOR MEDIATION AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION
The Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution designs and manages the
Institute's efforts in areas where fighting is active. The Center also conducts
research, identifies best practices, develops new peacemaking tools, and
supports related training and education efforts.
ABOUT THE UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, national
institution established and funded by Congress. Our mission is to help prevent,
manage, and resolve international conflicts by empowering others with
USIP Peace Briefing
Conducting Elections in Darfur: Looking ahead to Sudan’s 2009 Elections
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knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by our direct involvement in
peacebuilding efforts around the world.
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