مساعدة عاجلة....يا ناس الاقتصاد

Quote: Weak Dollar, Weak World BY ROBERT SAMUELSON - The Washington Post Writers Group December 5, 2006 URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/44592 ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Let's face it. Foreign exchange markets are not mass entertainment. They're not the NFL, MTV, or MySpace. So you might have missed the latest excitement of the sliding dollar. Who cares if the euro is now worth $1.33 instead of the $1.28 it was on November 20 — a 4% loss for the dollar? Well, we all should. The dollar's mysterious movements pose one of the thorniest economic questions of our time: Can the world economy thrive without the massive stimulus of ever-increasing American trade deficits? It's no secret that Asia, Europe, and Latin America have feasted on the American trade gap. In 2006 the deficit will reach about $800 billion — bringing the cumulative total since 1996 to $4.4 trillion. But as the American economy slows, so will Americans' ravenous appetite for imports. Likewise, the dropping dollar, which is down 11% against the euro this year, will make American exports more competitive on global markets. Big exporting countries may suffer. They need stronger domestic economic growth — or their economies may languish. We refer awkwardly to "global imbalances": Some countries have big trade surpluses, others (mainly America) have big deficits. By and large, the phenomenon has baffled economists, who didn't anticipate it. But the basic explanation is simple: The dollar's role as the main global currency. It's the currency most used to set prices for raw materials: oil, wheat, copper. It's the currency most used to conduct trade. Japan invoices 52% of its exports in dollars; South Korea, 85%, and Australia, 68%. Even France and Germany, which trade mainly in euros, use the dollar for about a third of their exports. Dollars also represent about two-thirds of the official foreign exchange reserves of governments worldwide. China and Japan have the largest reserves, at $1 trillion and nearly $900 billion. The dollar's global role reflects America's political stability, its large and wealthy economy, low inflation, and deep financial markets (there's plenty to buy, and it's easy to sell). Not surprisingly, the dollar dominates international bank loans and bonds. It's the favored way global investors hold their wealth in stocks and bonds or bank deposits outside their own countries. Likewise, many non-Americans use dollars as cash. The International Monetary Fund counts 13 countries that have adopted the dollar as their domestic currency; Ecuador is the largest. The Federal Reserve Board estimates that about $350 billion in cash — roughly half of all circulating dollar notes — are held abroad. Global imbalances emerge, because American trade deficits aren't automatically self-correcting. The surplus dollars that foreigners receive from their exports aren't necessarily dumped onto foreign exchange markets; that would normally lead to a cheaper dollar, more American exports, and fewer American imports. Instead, foreigners keep many of the dollars. In recent years, two trends have predominated: huge investments by private foreigners in American stocks, bonds, real estate, and companies; and big additions to governments' foreign exchange reserves, usually by purchases of U.S. Treasury securities. Governments — notably China — often want to keep their own currencies artificially depressed, thereby aiding their exports. In effect, America provides a service to the rest of the world — a global currency — and is repaid with imports. American consumers benefit; American producers don't. But the system may now be shaky. The American economic advantages may be narrowing as other countries grow richer and develop better financial markets. Or, at some point, the big trade deficits may spill more dollars abroad than foreigners want to hold. The tensions play out on the foreign exchange markets. The recent dollar sell-off, says Kathy Lien of FXCM, a brokerage service, was triggered by two events: speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in early 2007 (that would make holding dollars less profitable) and signs that China might diversify its currency holdings. A gradual dollar drop would be desirable, especially if China relaxed its tight control over its own currency. Bloated American trade deficits don't inspire confidence. They could provoke a panicky flight from the dollar or protectionism. But even this begs the harder questions. The dollar-based global economy has been kind to countries such as Japan, China, and Germany, whose prosperity rests heavily on their export industries. Economists talk glibly about "rebalancing" the world economy. That means that export-dependent nations would rely more on domestic growth, and deficit countries — mainly America — would shift to more exports. It sounds easy, but especially for major exporters, the needed changes go well beyond twisting a few simple economic dials. They involve altering government policies, industrial structures, and even popular attitudes. It's unclear whether these changes can be made. If not, a weak dollar might herald a weak global economy — which would be bad for everyone. December 5, 2006 Edition > Section: Opinion > Printer-Friendly Version

Quote: Weak dollar threatens world economy Press Trust of India United Nations, January 26: The world economy grew by four per cent last year, but a rapidly falling US dollar poses a danger to economic stability worldwide, the United Nations has said. The UN department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in a report on Tuesday said cyclical economic recovery reached a peak in 2004, especially for developing countries, and "the possibility of an abrupt and globally damaging correction persists, since the depreciation of the dollar alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to reduce the global imbalances to sustainable levels in an orderly fashion." "The global imbalance is between consumption and debt in the United States and ballooning surpluses in many US trading partners. Currency changes by themselves, especially bilateral currency manipulation, will not resolve the problem," it adds. Gross world product increased by four per cent in 2004 and could rise by 3.25 per cent this year, unless there is a negative market reaction to the falling dollar and rising US deficit, it said. Meanwhile, the 'oil shock' of a 50 per cent price rise in the first six months of 2004 was based on a demand surge, not the inadequate output of previous shocks "and therefore is more amenable to smooth market adjustment," it says. Oil prices would be higher than average but lower than last year's peak, UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs Josi Antonio Ocampo told reporters at United Nation on the report's launch. Balances in the oil market had changed because the war in Iraq had generated a 'fear premium' that had rippled throughout the Middle-East region, but oil prices had not had a negative effect on the world economy overall. Nonetheless, "greater global economic cooperation would be needed to avoid a hard landing," with challenges ahead for many countries and their central banks, Mr Ocampo said. The US and Chinese economies are the main engines of global economic growth, with the United States stimulating manufacturing and China buying raw materials from resource-rich developing countries and pushing up their average growth by 5.5 per cent, the strongest in two decades, it says. Only six African countries grew by the 7 per cent they need to reach the millennium development goals (MDGs) of halving extreme poverty by 2015, it says. URL: http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=41220[/QUOTE]