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Let's run through the ways the U.S. can get through:

1. Win against Germany
The U.S. would win the group with 7 points. Fun times, but it probably won't happen. ESPN's SPI index says there's only a 14% chance of the U.S. beating the Germans.

2. Draw against Germany
A draw would send both the U.S. and Germany into the knockout round. Sometimes in this situation, the teams play for an unofficially agreed-upon draw — a "fixed draw" as they call it. There's going to be a ton of conspiracy talk this week because of this.

Conspiracy or not, the U.S. would finish 2nd in the group behind Germany (on the goal difference tiebreaker) with a draw.

3. Lose to Germany, Portugal draws Ghana
No matter what happens in USA-Germany, the Americans will go into the round of 16 if Portugal and Ghana draw. The U.S. currently has 4 points, Portugal and Ghana would each finish with just 2 points if they drew.

4. Lose to Germany, Portugal beats Ghana, U.S. advances on goal difference
The U.S. will likely get into the knockout stage with a loss if Portugal beats Ghana, as long as neither game is a blowout. In that scenario, the U.S. and Portugal would tie for 2nd place in the group with 4 points.

The tiebreaker is goal difference. Right now the U.S. has a goal difference of +1, while Portugal has a goal difference of -4 after getting destroyed 4-0 by Germany. This is good for the U.S.

As long as Portugal doesn't make up five goals on the U.S. on Thursday, the U.S. is through with a Portugal win.

5. The nightmare scenario where the U.S. loses to Germany, Ghana beats Portugal, and the U.S. can only advance on the goals-scored tiebreaker.
This is the nightmare scenario.

If Ghana and the U.S. each end up with 4 points, the goal difference tiebreaker becomes more complicated.

The U.S. currently has a goal differential of +1 while Ghana has a goal differential of -1.

In this scenario, if Ghana wins by more than one goal or the U.S. loses by more than one goal, Ghana would have a better goal differential and advance.