Abdul Nabi Shaheen, Riyadhl/To statehood in southern Sudan

To statehood in southern Sudan
Observers worry about security and stability during this critical period
By Abdul Nabi Shaheen, Riyadh CorrespondentPublished: 00:00 January 4, 2011Reader comments (0)
In Juba, the regional capital of southern Sudan, people rally in October in support of the upcoming independence referendum, scheduled for Sunday. The south is widely expected to vote to break from the north. Experts say the vote is the result of 50 years of fighting by southern secessionist groups. Image Credit: Washington PostImage 1 of 512345
The secession of Southern Sudan from its North has become a reality. It is only a matter of time before the separation will be announced following a January 9 referendum after the Naivasha peace agreement was signed in 2005.
The split of southern Sudan would be epic for Sudan's modern history as it is the largest country in Africa and the Middle East.
Sudanese and international observers are worried about security and stability during this critical period, as tensions ahead of referendum simmer.
Gulf News accompanied Dr Riek Machar, Vice-President of the Government of southern Sudan and Vice-Chairman of Sudan's Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) on a tour of voter registration centres. Machar, who is among the key architects of South Sudan's revolution, said the referendum was a result of 50 years of fighting by southern secessionist groups.
Gulf News visited the villages of Waat, Maloot and Fuyam where there is no electricity or cell phone reception. The attitude in this village is clear — the people long for separation.
All the songs and dances of the villagers expressed the desire for separation. However, an Arab diplomat in Juba said this was due to the presence of such an important separatist leader like Machar in the gatherings. Gulf News learnt from senior officials that Machar will know who has voted for unity and who has voted for separation, and that there is clear intimidation on the people to vote for the latter.
There are some southern intellects who believe in unity. They believe the split of Sudan and the Naivasha agreement is a US design. Political experts believe there are Zionist and US plots working to divide Arab countries like Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt.
They described the partition plan as a new "Sykes-Picot" which not only targets Sudan but extends to other Arab countries in the region.
To support their claim, they cite an Israeli document released in 1982 saying that France and Britain had committed a mistake in 1916 by dividing the Arabs into only 22 countries and should have been further divided to 50 or 60 countries.
Shoul Peter, a southern lawyer and intellectual explained that there was an Israeli study released in 2004 by the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies, under the title Israel and the Liberation Movement of southern Sudan: Starting Point and Start-up Phase, prepared by Brigadier Moshe Fraji (Ret.).
The study revealed Israel's role in supporting rebel movements in southern Sudan and encouraging separatist trends.
The study noted that the Sudan is currently not considered a threat to Israel, but as a potential threat in the future.
Repercussions of a split
Dr Simon Makwaj, a Southern academic told Gulf News political instability will increase following the split. "Sudan's government stands to lose more than half of its oil revenues which accounts for 80 per cent of the total revenue and 60 per cent of the federal budget," he explained.
Machar disagrees. "I don't think there is any reason for war as post-secession issues such as border demarcation can be solved peacefully. I don't think war is in the interest of both sides. Both the North and the South rely on oil so they will try to safeguard it," he explained. As for Israeli relations with South Sudan, Machar said that opening an embassy was not a crime, but Israel has not asked for one so far. Rebel groups in southern Sudan have historically had contacts with Israel, some dating as far back as the 1960s.
General Jospeh Lagu, leader of Anya-Nya, a military rebellion movement which waged a war against the Sudanese government in the 1960s admits in his latest book that Israel has supplied his movement with weapons and military equipment and training.
Southern Sudan occupies an area of some 70,000 square kilometres, or 28 per cent of Sudan's 2.5 million square kilometres. It shares borders with five countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Congo and Central Africa.
For southerners the key challenge of separation is making sure the people benefit from it, as many live without electricity, water, medical or educational access. "Separation means oil revenues would go solely to the South and could assist in building infrastructure and providing services to its citizens," Machar said.
A fuse in a powder keg
The oil-rich Abyei located in the western state of Kordofan has been at the heart of Sudan's conflict as both the North and South believe this region belongs to them.
After the second Sudan-ese civil war, the 2004 Protocol on the Resolution of the Abyei conflict in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) established that Abyei would have special administrative status. Oil revenues were then divided between Ngok Dinka and Messiria regions and Sudan's government.
The referendum is further complicated due to the status of this area and will prove to be the most contentious issue to resolve.
After much squabbling and renewed clashes in 2008, the main parties agreed to refer the dispute to The Hague international court. It is still unclear who among the residents of Abyei have the right to vote in the referendum.
Interview
In tomorrow's edition with Dr Riek Machar. Vice-President of the Government of South Sudan and Vice-Chairman of Sudan's Peoples Liberation Movement


To statehood in southern Sudan

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