There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis

There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis


07-19-2006, 12:47 PM


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Post: #1
Title: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Andrew Athooch
Date: 07-19-2006, 12:47 PM
Parent: #0




Sudan Today
A Truth and Transparency Dossier
Issue No.1, July, 2006



The people of Southern Sudan must now live with the fact that there will be no referendum on unity or separation by January 9th, 2011.
This hypothesis is based on two veritable facts: One, the road to referendum is rough and tough and takes only a visionary leader on the helm to chart the way. This kind of leadership is terribly lacking in the SPLM at the moment. Two, it is now common knowledge that the late SPLM leader Dr.John Garang was slain by a Power and Money cartel.
In other words, those who saw him as a threat to their power ; those who wanted his power; along with killers on call for money, teamed up together to end his life, and with him- the Comprehensive Peace Agreement - the CPA. Now that Phase One of the plan- the slaying of John Garang- has been achieved, the cartel is vigorously ripping the SPLM apart as part of Phase Two, aimed at destroying the CPA in a systematic but astute manner.
In this first issue of Sudan Today, the modus operandi of the cartel will be uncovered for the benefit of the Sudanese people in general and Southern Sudanese in particular.

Multi-pronged strategy

After the successful removal of John Garang from the political scene, the immediate anathema that the cartel had to deal with was Garang’s dual legacy: the CPA ; and the immense popularity that the SPLM had created in the North and South. To deal with this anathema, a multi-faceted strategy was developed to contain the SPLM by:

a- ensuring that the movement does not play a role at the national level, Dar Fur being the case in point.
b- dispiriting, and if necessary, physically eliminating hardcore elements within the SPLM.
c- ensuring that the South is steeped in corruption, instability and misrule
d- stalling the CPA so that its main provisions are not implemented.


The above strategy is being strappingly implemented in Juba and Khartoum, thanks to the dissolute tools of Power and Money. In Khartoum, it is being executed by a trio of hired-guns Messrs Telar Ring Takpiny Deng, Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Lam Akol , Minister of Foreign Affairs and Major General Mohammed Ahmed Ibrahim Aradeib, a bloody intelligence officer now masquerading as an SPLA General and a close friend of First Vice President Salva Kiir Mayardit. General Aradeib is currently a commissioner in Khartoum State on SPLM ticket. Each of these hired-guns has been assigned a carefully designed role. Sudan Today will shed light on roles of two of these hired guns, leaving the third goon for the next issues.

Telar Deng

Telar’s sundry role involves dwarfing the SPLM into a regional movement concerned only with the South. In this context, the new political theory that is being promoted to replace the two-decade old SPLM policy goes as follows:
Since the South will vote on separation after the interim period, there is no need for the SPLM to engage in any political confrontation with the National Congress Party (NCP). The SPLM should therefore rubberstamp NCP policies at the national level and should not even contemplate working with other political parties in the North.
This was precisely why Telar was overzealous in his destruction of the SPLM’s Northern sector. He used his power in the office of the First Vice President to mete out a mean treatment on the head of the Northern Sector, Commander Abdul Aziz Adam El Hilu until Abdul Aziz was so disgruntled to quit the SPLM. Even as SPLM colleagues struggled to persuade him to return from America, Telar went to the media to spoil their efforts by announcing that El Hilu had quit the SPLM.
The removal of such a strong leader, representing an entire constituency of the Nuba Mountains from the SPLM, was a victory to the NCP.
This success raised Telar’s stakes in the NCP eyes as a trustworthy minion. After he kicked Abdul Aziz out of the movement, Telar then turned viciously to the Northern sector and succeeded to destroy the sector completely. Cash-strapped, the activities of the sector, including organization and political recruitment, came to a standstill. Telar further finished the chapter off by deliberately embarking on abusive North-South discourse to alienate and eventually expel Northern Sudanese from the movement. His strategy proved successful as Northern Sudanese began resigning en mass. First, it was Abdul Aziz, then Dr. Al Wathiq Kameir, Col. Waleed Hamid and many others. The medani office of the SPLM is now closed as thousands of members renounced their membership.
To millions of Northern Sudanese who had long cherished SPLM objectives, the movement has now turned into a Southern Sudanese party. This is the perfect image of the SPLM that the NCP has always wanted to present to the Sudanese people. The NCP has always wanted to isolate Salva from the national scene and reduce him into a small Southern Sudanese leader. A small but important illustration of this point could be seen in an episode that occurred on Saturday July 15th. A top NCP official said as he teased an SPLM friend:
Why didn’t you to go to the airport to receive your President (meaning Salva)?.
“And why didn’t Ali Osman go to receive him?”, replied the SPLM official.
No, replied the NCP official, adding:
“Sheikh Ali cannot go to receive Salva as long as Telar can do the job!


True, it was Telar and a handful of SPLM ministers who were at the airport on Saturday 15th when Salva arrived from Juba. There was no single NCP minister to receive Salva. This was a perfect example of how Telar has reduced the office of the First Vice President of Sudan into a mockery.
In the eyes of Jallaba-minded NCP officials, the First Vice President Salva who was received by Telar as he stepped out of his jet in the evening of July 15th 2006, was nothing less than a 21st century archetype of the disdained and Southern Sudanese chief of 1940s.
The big questions that must now be asked are:
Now that the SPLM has failed in the North, who will benefit from this failure?. Can the CPA be implemented better if the SPLM is active only in the South? Or when it is active in both the South and North? If the national scene is not important as the hired guns would have us believe, then, what are the SPLM ministers doing the Government of National Unity in Khartoum? Why not stay only in the South?

Another dangerous role assigned to Telar by the cartel, is to mislead the First Vice President Salva into signing every document given by the NCP. Examples are many, but the most visible is the example of the Oil Commission which has successfully been paralyzed by Telar.

As will be recalled, the SPLM leadership consoled itself and the public opinion when they lost the Ministry of Energy to the NCP by telling the people that the Ministry itself was no longer important since most of its powers will be given to the Oil Commission in which the SPLM would be well-represented. This turned out to be big lie. What happened later was that the Cartel asked the Energy Minister Awad Al Jazz to write by-laws for the Oil Commission. When Al Jazz wrote the laws, he appointed himself, by virtue of his office, as the rapporteur of the commission and retained most powers for himself. The commission was thus left without powers as stipulated in the CPA. Naturally, the SPLM rejected these by-laws and a meeting that ended acrimoniously. Later on, the cartel employed the trick that they know best: Awad Al Jazz passed the document to their hired-gun in Salva’s office. Telar, hold your breath, did not throw these laws into dustbin as any patriotic Southern Sudanese should have done. Instead, he gave the document to Salva to sign, which he did! Poor Salva, according to Telar’s own admissions to friends, does not bother to read any document containing more than two paragraphs. Thus, Salva did not know that he had signed away billions of dollars in oil money to Awad Al Jazz.
But to his credit, he later retracted his signature after meeting President Bashir. This single document was retracted, but what about other documents worth millions of dollars that Telar had fooled him into signing?
Until this day, the oil commission is totally paralyzed and SPLM officials , and of course the people of Southern Sudan, will never know anything about oil contracts as long as Telar is in Salva's office.
One final question that should be asked is: It is well known that General Salah Gosh of the State Security calls Telar on the phone daily, some times twice a day. What do they discuss?



General Mohammed Ibrahim Aradeib

If Telar is merely a hired-gun and a minion used by the cartel, General Aradeib is a more dangerous figure who emerged from obscurity into the SPLA affairs. Aradeib who graduated from the Sudan Military College in 1970, batch 22, was dismissed from the army in 1972. Since then, he made a career in the murky world of espionage and dirty money. Like Telar and Lam, he has been assigned a specific two-fold role. Firstly, to gain access to highly classified information about the SPLA which the cartel can use in the future to deal a final but deadly blow to the SPLM/A. Secondly, to run a corruption syndicate that will involve everybody in the SPLM including the Vice President Salva himself. The reason of getting everybody involved in this corruption syndicate is part of the efforts by the cartel to disgrace and distract SPLM officials from the main issues of contention with the NCP.

Aradeib first pocked his nose into the SPLA affairs in 2003, after years of spying on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Asmara.
According to a retired military intelligence Brigadier, Aradeib was implanted by the Sudan Military Intelligence within the opposition Sudan Alliance Forces (SAF) under the command of Brigadier Abdul Aziz Khalid.
As a member of SAF, Aradeib studied the weakness of the organization thoroughly and quickly succeeded in passing sensitive intelligence to the Armed Forces, resulting in a series of defeats to SAF forces in Eastern Sudan. He also fostered differences within SAF and finally succeeded in rattling the organization. His spying skills were crowned with the arrest and deportation of Abdul Aziz Khalid while visiting the UAE in 2004.
After the success of his mission in Asmara, he was ordered to work on SPLM issues in coordination with Ambassador Saraj El Din Hamid, then Sudanese ambassador to Uganda.
A military intelligence source told Sudan Today that it was no coincidence that Aradeib was chosen to work with Sir El Edin Hamed, one of the security personnel of the National Islamic Front, who were sent to the Foreign Ministry in early 1990s. Siraj El Din is famously known as the facilitator of the terrorist organization of the blind Egyptian cleric Omar Abdul Rahman who attempted to bomb the World Trade Centre in 1993. He fled New York after the FBI foiled the attempt. The FBI found evidence that Hamed had supplied the terrorists with vehicles carrying diplomatic plates to smuggle bombs into the Word Trade Centre.
His close friendship with Aradeib was therefore an espionage relationship. This was evident in his numerous visits to Southern Sudan during 2003/4. It was during this period that he made personnel friendship with Commander Salva Kiir, who was then in Yei. Aradeib himself brags publicly that he used to help Salva with cash when he was hard up in Yei from 2003 until 2005. In all fairness to Salva, he did innocently accept Aradeib's cash, not knowing that it was dirty money coming from the Sudanese embassy in Kampala. Aradeib also dished out some two millions dollars to some people around commander Salva to facilitate the famous Garang-Salva crisis in 2004 which was successfully resolved in Rumbek in December of that year. Sudan Today will reveal the names when the time comes.

Corruption syndicate

Apart from his main job of gathering sensitive intelligence about the SPLM/A, General Aradeib is currently running a corruption syndicate in Khartoum as part of the grand strategy to embroil SPLM officials in corruption scams and thereby tarnish their public image and also deflect their attention from main issues of the CPA. Here are a few examples to substantiate this fact.
In April this year, Aradeib persuaded Salva to buy a plot of land to build a house for himself in Khartoum. After securing the approval of his friend Salva, Aradeib approached a wealthy businessman in Khartoum II who owned a plot near his residence in the area. The businessman asked for 1.8 million dollar for his plot but Aradeib in turn asked him to top up the price to 3.8 millions. The stunned businessman topped up the deal to 3.8 million and made an initial written offer. As Aradeib took the offer, he asked the man to pay him some 25,000 dollars for “people in Salva’s office to speed up the deal”.
The man paid the cash. Unfortunately for the burglarized businessman, Salva rejected the offer and asked Aradeib to get a lesser offer. As Aradeib went widely about in search of the plot, the entire Khartoum’s real-estate business community heard the news of the deal. Everybody began chasing the big bonanza. It was the talk of the town and Aradeib did not even bother to protect the name of his good friend. He eventually found a 2-million dollar offer which Salva accepted. However, Aradeib did not pay back the 25,000 dollar which he took from the businessman. Naturally, the burgled man ran after his money as Aradeib continued to doge him until Sudan Today picked up his story. Even as a house is being currently built for Vice President Salva, Aradeib continues to inflate bills and the by the time the house is completed, millions of dollars will have been fleeced. Reliable sources in the Khartoum real-estate community have revealed that it was Aradeib who bought the plots of lands for Dr. Justin Yac and Telar Ring in the affluent neighborhood of Riyadh. Justin’s plot was bought for one million dollars while Telar’s 2000-square meter plot was bought for 800,000 dollars. Sudan Today will provide the documents as soon as they become available. Aradeib has also recruited a handful of associates to hang around the offices of SPLM Federal Ministers to perform various duties including asking commissions from investors in the name of these ministers.
One question that every Southern Sudanese should put to First Vice President Salva is: Does he really need to be associated with people like this? The vast majority of Southern Sudanese respect Salva as a true product of the SPLA. Now that he is holding a big position in the country, why does he want to destroy his own image by associating himself with security agents and thieves like Aradeib?


CPA no longer a priority

The experience of the last 11 months in office has shown that First Vice President Salva has invariably ceased to be an effective player at the national scene. We have shown through just two examples how Kiir is effectively disabled by the cartel through his own aides. The role of Lam Akol and other hired-guns will be dwelt on in later issues of Sudan Today. However, the fact that the people of Southern Sudan must know is that there is no to follow up for the implementation of the CPA. There can be no CPA without a day-to-day follow up of its core issues such as democracy, civil liberties, formation of Abyei administration etc.
The NCP is currently refusing to hear anything about Oil Commission. It has already killed the Border Commission by denying it any funds. By killing the Border Commission, the border between the South and North will never be demarcated and therefore Oil revenues will never be divided fairly as the North claims some of the currently productive Oil fields in the South. Elections in 2009 will not be held in disputed areas. Consequently, referendum on self-determination will be postponed because borders will not have been demarcated.
In Juba, Kiir is equally held hostage to the voracious greed for money by the notorious corruption syndicate led the Tsar Justin Yac and his corruption lords Arthur Akwien and Isaac Makur. The Modus operandi of this syndicate who have thus far fleeced over 200 million dollars will be dealt with in the next issues.
In conclusion of this issue, Sudan Today would like its readers to ponder on the following questions as they digest the credibility of the information contained in this dossier:
Why does First Vice President Salva Kiir surround himself with several hired-guns who are clearly undermining his own leadership? Doesn’t he want to succeed as a leader? Is he really innocent or does he know exactly what is happening?. What does he want to do with the CPA? Why does he allow corruption syndicates to stash away millions of dollars from the coffers of Southern Sudan while he looks on? Does he believe in the Bona-Justin-Lam theory that Southerners should withdraw from the national political scene, standby idly and wait until the referendum comes in 2011?
Well, judging from the thorough investigation that Sudan Today has made, the Bonas , the Justins and Lams will not be among mourners in 2011 when undertakers carry the putrid corpse of Southern Sudanese hopes for self-determination. From what we know of their connections with cartel in Khartoum, they will not shed tears for the betrayed South Sudan because they have never been genuine patriotic Southern Sudanese nationalists of the stature of Ali Batalla , Aggrey Jadden , Saturino Lupe and many others. These heroes were psychologically divorced from the North and did not even fancy the idea of living in Khartoum, let alone building palaces for millions of dollars stolen from petro-money of the impoverished people of Southern Sudan.
To the Bonas, Telars, Lams, Justins, the struggle was all about Power and Money. Forget about the CPA or Self-determination.
Since Garang was killed, can anyone recall the last time Bona Malawal, Justin Yac, Lam Akol, Arthur Akwien or any of the present syndicates that have taken over the affairs of Southern Sudan, made a strongly-worded public statement about self-determination and separation of South Sudan?















,


Post: #2
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: بكرى ابوبكر
Date: 07-19-2006, 01:14 PM
Parent: #1

المقال ده مهم اتمنى ان يقوم زميل-ة بترجمته

Post: #3
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Mustafa Mahmoud
Date: 07-19-2006, 01:21 PM
Parent: #2

dear bakri
why do not you put it as a heading up the board ?
dr mustafa mahmoud

Post: #4
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Rihab Khalifa
Date: 07-19-2006, 01:49 PM
Parent: #1

Dear Andrew

To start with, thanks a lot for a careful reading to the political climate over the issues discussed - can I safely assume that you are the writer of the article?

I might agree or disagree on a few pointers, here and there, and might question some of your arguments, but the facts remain that, political interests, from internal and external parties have always had a big say in nations's destinys, and Sudan is no exception to that..I have no political affiliation, except to allah and Sudan, but really appreciate such well crafted discussions

regards,

Rihab

Post: #5
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Mustafa Mahmoud
Date: 07-19-2006, 03:59 PM
Parent: #4

thank you dear bakri for acknowledging my request to put the post up the board
dr mustafa mahmoud

Post: #6
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Mustafa Mahmoud
Date: 07-19-2006, 04:12 PM
Parent: #5

dear Andrew
the points and the allegations you raised in this article are very serious and if proofed true could mean a lot to the issue of the new Sudan we dreamed about.
i think before we go any further discussion we expect a denial or a refute from those concerned in the spla and splm
what dr garang has achieved is too big to be sacrified for the sake of a house or a peice of land in khartoum
the Islamic front ingaz mafia gang will do every thing possible to stain all those who are not with them
character assassination is a well known method of this islamist mafia corrupt gang
i will be very grateful if any one from the splm or spla could respond to your post as their silence is not in their favour here because you raised very serious fundamental issues
thank you very much for sharing your thoughts with us
i will be back if there is an explanation from the splm or spla as iam a great supporter of the new Sudan dr garang worked for until he was assassinated by the force of evil.

dr mustafa Mahmoud

Post: #7
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: esam gabralla
Date: 07-19-2006, 04:25 PM
Parent: #1

المقال ده مهم جدا جدا
وين عادل عثمان يترجمو؟

سؤال: من هو Andrew Athooch كاتب التحليل؟

الى عودة

Post: #8
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: shahto
Date: 07-19-2006, 05:35 PM
Parent: #7

انه احد رجالات السودان
المحبين للوطن و القابضين علي الجمر كا الكثيرين
نعم هذا المقال مهدي لاعضاء الحركة قبل نيفاشا و بعد نفاشا

و اعود لكم قريبا المهم المقال في محله و نحن في واشنطن هذه الايام

Post: #9
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Nasr
Date: 07-19-2006, 06:17 PM
Parent: #1

Very dangerous. Should be read and discussed. Does it indicate that there is a fierce struggle within the ranks of SPLA?

Post: #10
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: محمد النعمان
Date: 07-19-2006, 09:40 PM
Parent: #9


This is, in fact, one of the most well-crafted articles I have ever read regarding the SPLM’s current
political status. It successfully points out the overall retrogressive strategy the SPLM’s current leadership is appearing to be silently fostering.
However, it also appears that the issue in question here is the fact that the SPLM has been hijacked by a corrupt South Sudanese Nationalists. The article seems tending to support “good” S. Sudanese Nationalists against corrupt S. Sudanese Nationalists.
The writer has raised the following question in regard to the First Vice President Salva Kiir

Quote: Does he believe in the Bona-Justin-Lam theory that Southerners should withdraw from the national political scene, standby idly and wait until the referendum comes in 2011?
Well, judging from the thorough investigation that Sudan Today has made, the Bonas , the Justins and Lams will not be among mourners in 2011 when undertakers carry the putrid corpse of Southern Sudanese hopes for self-determination. From what we know of their connections with cartel in Khartoum, they will not shed tears for the betrayed South Sudan because they have never been genuine patriotic Southern Sudanese nationalists

The article seems to have failed to level the stage for a broader question as to see whether the great SPLM has been actually hijacked by S. Sudanese Nationalists (regardless of their corruption) and been veered away from its historical Unionist discourse, a discourse that has been elegantly manufactured, persistently promoted and strongly fought for by the late Dr. Garang.
For me, a person who would be ideologically classified as a Northerner but has, nevertheless, managed to stay as a Sudanese who has been supporting the call for a New Sudan, I find the idea of praising the patriotism of a Southerner on the mere basis of their ability to psychologically be divorced from the North is rather troubling, if not insulting.
Quote: These heroes were psychologically divorced from the North and did not even fancy the idea of living in Khartoum, let alone building palaces for millions of dollars stolen from petro-money of the impoverished people of Southern Sudan
In between those who could venture to buy a two-million-dollar residential lot in Khartoum with corrupt monies and those who don’t even fancy the idea of living in Khartoum, there is this forgotten Sudanese who belongs to Khartoum as well as to Juba, Port Sudan and Al Fashir without ever giving up on the great vision for a New Sudan as it has been conceptualized by the great Dr. Garang.
There is a battle that has to be fought, correct.
For me, the historically decisive battle is not the one between a corrupt and a non-corrupt S.S. Nationalists who equally endeavor to establish, by the end of the day, their separate State in the South. The productive struggle is to be directed to strengthening the Unionist wing inside this fruits-bearing movement. A unionist SPLM, almost by definition, is more capable of defeating the traditionally corrupt Sudanese politician, be it in the North or in the South, in the East or in the West.
To be a Nationalist, per se, is not a political, ideological or social virtue.
Within the realities of the class- society, nationalistic tendency could be an ideological stance that would prescribe corruption as an essential element in its very structure.

Mohamed Elnuman

P. S. I am sorry for not being able to left align this text


Post: #11
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: بكرى ابوبكر
Date: 07-19-2006, 10:02 PM
Parent: #10


Dear My friend Mohamed Elnumand

Quote: P. S. I am sorry for not being able to left align this text

I try to help!!!!!
and thanks for your greet Analysis

Post: #12
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: محمد النعمان
Date: 07-19-2006, 10:42 PM
Parent: #11

Dear friend Bakri

Thanks for the attempt
It seems that it didn't work, all the way, for you either
I wonder if there is any user's friendly way to address this text alignment issue

Congratulation on Manar's arrival and my sicere greetings to Hala

P. S. Now after your intervention, I could say, Bart Simpson's style: didn't do it
if it appears that one of my ideas is questionable or out of line

Post: #13
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Bashasha
Date: 07-20-2006, 00:00 AM
Parent: #1

.*.

Post: #14
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: بكرى ابوبكر
Date: 07-20-2006, 00:09 AM
Parent: #13

Quote: Congratulation on Manar's arrival and my sicere greetings to Hala

P. S. Now after your intervention, I could say, Bart Simpson's style: didn't do it
if it appears that one of my ideas is questionable or out of line

الصديق العزيز محمد النعمان
شكرا ليك
و يا شباب انا قمت بالتعديل مداخلة حبيبنا النعمان بهدف ان تقرا من اليسار كما يقرا بالانجليزية
وشكرا

Post: #15
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: عصام أحمد
Date: 07-20-2006, 00:17 AM
Parent: #14


شكرا Andrew Athooch

وكمان شكرا يا حبيب

Post: #16
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: hala alahmadi
Date: 07-20-2006, 06:24 AM
Parent: #1

Quote: The NCP is currently refusing to hear anything about Oil Commission. It has already killed the Border Commission by denying it any funds. By killing the Border Commission, the border between the South and North will never be demarcated and therefore Oil revenues will never be divided fairly as the North claims some of the currently productive Oil fields in the South. Elections in 2009 will not be held in disputed areas. Consequently, referendum on self-determination will be postponed because borders will not have been demarcated.



Quote: In conclusion of this issue, Sudan Today would like its readers to ponder on the following questions as they digest the credibility of the information contained in this dossier:
Why does First Vice President Salva Kiir surround himself with several hired-guns who are clearly undermining his own leadership? Doesn’t he want to succeed as a leader? Is he really innocent or does he know exactly what is happening?. What does he want to do with the CPA? Why does he allow corruption syndicates to stash away millions of dollars from the coffers of Southern Sudan while he looks on? Does he believe in the Bona-Justin-Lam theory that Southerners should withdraw from the national political scene, standby idly and wait until the referendum comes in 2011?


What a mess !!!!!

Post: #17
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Nasr
Date: 07-20-2006, 01:41 PM
Parent: #1

I don't want to see Sudan going back to war. The major reason of this contribution is to help foster peace, and deter war in Sudan.

The first impression I got from this post is that SPLA didn't elect its ministers. Hence the question is how is SPLA functioning? Who elected those three "hired guns" to represent SPLA?

I agree on the post's pointing out to the strategies of corrupting the leadership. I guess this is a very dangerous thing. If the sacrifices of millions of people through the longest civil war in recent history will lead to this, then I will say, what a tragedy.

But the other important issue here is this: The different factions in the North and in the South should declare, are they with unified Sudan? or are they working for separation?

I got to say this because of the conflicting messages I got from reading this post. On the one side the writer is claiming that Northerner "and I came to know that they are too many of them in the movement" are defecting, and on the other side criticizing the southern leaders who want to live in the North??? So, was it
expected from the Northerners in SPLA to leave the North and live in the South? Or could it be that the Northerners are defecting, because in a way they are unionists, and they came to discover that SPLA is not unionist as they thought???? Particularly after the death of John Garang, who was, as I think, and adamant unionist?

For me, I will say keep war away, take peace even if leads to the separation of the South. And of course I will prefer peace in a unified democratic Sudan

Post: #18
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Elmoiz Abunura
Date: 07-20-2006, 05:44 PM
Parent: #1

Dear Friends
Very intriguing article. As a former senior economist at the defunct General Petroleum corporation ( GPC), from my following to the negotiations between the two ruling partners regarding the Oil Commission, and oil contracts, I concour with the writer information about the oil commission. Itis also safe to say that there is no accountability, or transpareny when it comes to oil revenues whether in the central government, or in the government of Southern Sudan
I wonder if somebody can shed more lights about the political, and military history of Major General Mohamed Ahmed Ibrahim Aradeib
Regards

Post: #19
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-21-2006, 11:58 AM
Parent: #18


Dear Bakri,
I recently read a book with the title that bears the words "Economic Hitmen." The book deals with the exact issue that the writer of the article alludes to. It deals with how the powers that be, including arm dealers, oilmen, politicians, intelligence agencies, and corporate entities of different grains, team up to form a cartel that lethally attacks any emerging power that threatens it. The writer himself was part of such a cartel, knowingly at times, and unknowingly at other. He was brutally honest when he described his own, indirect, role in impoverishing millions upon millions of people and the annihilation of many more millions. He showed how cooking the books of economic policy and fake intellectualism can lead to utter destruction.

He further gave very pertinent examples of leaders killed by mysterious plain accidents. Omer Trudu, slain president of Panama, for instance, was killed in a mysterious plane crash, just like the one in which our beloved martyr Dr. Garang was killed. He went on to give several examples of plane crashes that mimicked that one, and the ones it mimicked. This makes the killing of Dr. Garang fall into this pattern of mysterious crashes, if current or future investigations prove that it was, indeed, an assassination that looked like an accident.

In my judgment, it is not unlikely that a cartel of the sort mentioned in the article is responsible for the killing of our slain leader. I think it is reasonable to assume that some pockets in the Sudan intelligence agencies may have been involved. When you think about it, oil, arms dealing, corporate interests, the potential for building new armies and new economic bases in a divided Sudan, all make a very good recipe for conspiracy.

It no secret that Dr. Ganang's project runs against the grain of the corporate world and arms dealing, which made him, in my mind, a good target for a consortium in which Sudanese intelligence men were possibly involved. Some of these men visited Langley, VA, where the CIA is located to discuss some serious issues (multiple times and were lavishly pampered by U.S. intelligence agencies). It begs the question as to what these people were doing in Washington and Langley. What were they discussing and planning for? And whey did those meetings, roughly, coincided with the approach of the conclusion of the Sudanese peace talks?

These are all questions that should be the main focus of any possible future investigations into the killing of our beloved leader Garang.

Please visit me in the related thread below, for it deals with issues that are very pressing toddy (and that are important for celebrating the legacy and life of Dr. Garang)

نحو جمهورية سودانية ثانية: الحركة الشعبية والمؤتمر الوطني وآلام المخاض

Thanks for providing such a thoughtful reading.

Post: #20
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-21-2006, 12:02 PM
Parent: #19


Please extend my warm greetings to Andrew, and thank him on our behalf for providing a thought provoking account and a freshlly new outlook on the issue at hand.
Again, thank you!

Post: #21
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-23-2006, 06:52 AM
Parent: #20

ًًًWhat we have to fear is fear itself

Post: #22
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Mustafa Mahmoud
Date: 07-23-2006, 06:55 AM

will be very grateful if any one from the splm or spla could respond to your post as their silence is not in their favour here because you raised very serious fundamental issues
thank you very much for sharing your thoughts with us
i will be back if there is an explanation from the splm or spla as iam a great supporter of the new Sudan dr garang worked for until he was assassinated by the force of evil.

dr mustafa Mahmoud

Post: #23
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-23-2006, 12:05 PM
Parent: #22

Liberty, JUSTICE, and the pursuit of happiness

Post: #24
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Adil Isaac
Date: 07-23-2006, 04:45 PM
Parent: #23

Interesting!Many damning conclusions with little in the way of evidence or arguemnts to reach such conclusions!.One example is the so called cartel: what is the evidence that it does exist except that the writer thinks so?.Any details about the history of its memeber and how they related together in the past to form this presumed cartel-actual or circumstantial evidence is needed her.Also, any evidence that the gentlemen mentioned above are corrupt?They robbed the South of Petrol money?

These are serious allegations and if they are to be taken seriously, stronger and reliable evidence need to be presented.Otherwise, this will be yet another, Sudanese-type allegations based on nothing..ie Kalam Sakit as we say

Post: #25
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-23-2006, 06:12 PM
Parent: #24


Yes, Adil,
I agree that
Quote: stronger and reliable evidence need to be presented

Post: #26
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: hatim
Date: 07-24-2006, 03:00 AM
Parent: #25

without evidence this article means...0


Quote: Sudanese-type allegations based on nothing..ie Kalam Sakit as we say





ترجمة آلية للجزء من المقال....


الفقرة الاولى:






السودان اليوم
ملف الشفافية والحقيقة
القضية رقم 1، يوليو/تموز، 2006


شعب جنوب السودان يجب الآن أن تعيش مع الحقيقة بأنّ لن يكون هناك إستفتاء عام على الوحدة أو الإفتراق بحلول شهر يناير/كانون ثاني تاسعا، 2011.
هذه الفرضية مستندة على الحقيقتين : واحد، الطريق إلى الإستفتاء العام قاسية و فقط على زعيم يتنبأ على القيادة لتخطيط الطريق. هذا النوع من القيادة تفتقر إليه الحركة بشدة في الوقت الحاضر. إثنان، هناك معلومات عامة الآن التي زعيم SPLM الدّكتور الراحل. جون Garang ذبح من قبل محتكري المال والقوّة.
بكلمات أخرى، أولئك الذين رأوه كتهديد إلى قوّتهم؛ أولئك الذين أرادوا قوّته؛ سويّة مع القتلة تحت الطلب للمال، إنضمّ سوية لإنهاء حياته، ومعه إتّفاقية السلام الشاملة . الآن تلك المرحلة إحدى الخطط التي أنجزها قتلة جون قرنق، الإحتكار تمزّق الحركة الشعبية بشدّة كجزء من مرحلة ثانية ، إستهدف تحطيم إتفاقية السلام بإسلوب منظّم لكن فطن.
في هذه القضية الأولى للسودان اليوم، طريقة عمل الإحتكار ستكون غير مغطّاة لمنفعة الشعب السوداني عموما وسودانيي الجنوب بشكل خاص.

Post: #27
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Al Sunda
Date: 07-24-2006, 05:19 AM
Parent: #26

تكملة بتصرف
استراتيجيه متعدده الفروع للتعامل مع ارث الدكتور قرنق ( اتفاقية السلام والشعبية الجارفة للحركة في الجنوب والشمال) تتمثل في :-
1) ضمان الا تلعب الحركه دورا علي الصعيد الوطني (نموذج دارفور)
2)تثبيط الهمم ،واذا لزم الامر التصفيه الجسديه لعناصر داخل الحركه.
3) ضمان انغماس (انحدار)الجنوب في الفساد وعدم الاستقرار وسوء الحكم(الفوضى)
4) تعطيل اتفاقية السلام الشامله بعدم تنفيذ بنودها الرئيسية .
يتم تنفيذ هذه الاستراتيجية في كل من الخرطوم وجوبا وذلك عبر استخدام المال والسلطة كأدوات للإفساد عبر حلف ثلاثي يتكون من
1.
2.
3.
بس الجاي ورا كلام خطير

Post: #28
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-24-2006, 11:26 AM
Parent: #27

فوق، سودانا، فوقّّ!!

Post: #29
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 07-24-2006, 02:12 PM
Parent: #28

الأخ الكريم بكري أبو بكر،

سراج الدين حامد، رجل المخابرات السوداني، كان قنصلاً عاما في البعثة الدائمة للأمم المتحدة في نيويورك. ضلع في محاولة تفجير مبني الأمم المتحدة في أوائل التسعينات. وذلك بتوفير ناقلة، تتستر بأرقام دبلوماسية، لتحمل متفجرات يتم بها تفجير المباني الضخمة للمقر الدائم للأمم المتحدة في مدينة نيويورك. وحين فشلت الخطة وافتضح الأمر، هرب الرجل. ثم عين، بعد ذلك بفترة قصيرة، سفيراً للسودان في يوغندا!! /B]

بعد حادثة سقوط طائرة قرنق، كتب ضابط أمن سوداني متقاعد، بأن جهاز المخابرات السوداني اخترق أجهزة المخابرات الأوغندية. وحسب هذا الضابط، فقد تم اختراق جهاز الرئاسةالأوغندية نفسه، حيث كان يعمل أحد الإسلامويين الأوغنديين المتعاونين مع الأسلامويين السودانيين.

والجدير بالذكر أن سراج الدين حامد هذا، أصبح ممثلاً للحكومة في اللجنة التي أجرت التحقيقات عن مقتل الدكتور الشهيد جون قرنق دي مابيور، ومقرراً لها. وكان هو أكثر من يدلي بتصريحات باسم اللجنة. وهو الذي أعلن النتيجة النهائية لتقرير اللجنة

هناك شبهات كثيرة تحوم حول نتائج التحقيقات في الحادثة التي أودت بحياة بطلنا الشهيد العظيم.

نرجو من الأعضاء الكرام في هذا المنبر، ومن القراء، والكتاب، و المحللين السياسيين، والدبلوماسيين، سابقين وحاضرين، ومن كل وطني غيور، يملك معلومات، رصينة، قابلة للتحقق، أن يمدنا بها في هذا الخيط. لعل هذا الموقع يصبح منطلقاً لتحقيق قانوني، حقيقي، غير مشوب بأهواء السلطة !!

Post: #30
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: mekki
Date: 07-25-2006, 00:21 AM
Parent: #1

إختلف مع هذا التحليل تماما...
فإن سلمنا بأن هناك جهات ما تحالفت وذبحت دكتور جون قرنق...فليس ذلك بسبب آخر غير فصل الجنوب عن الشمال...
فالراحل قرنق إتجه نحو الوحده ساعده على ذلك الترحاب الواسع الذى لقيه من جميع الفعاليات..
الذى إغتال جون قرنق-إن سلمنا أن هناك إغتيالا- هو فى المقام الأول لجوئه الى عقد تحالفات مع جهات متناقضه ومختلفه المآرب...
فكان يتحدث بلسان مع الأفارقه...
ويتحدث بلسان آخر مع الأمريكان
ويتحدث بلسان ثالث مع المعارضه الشماليه..
ويتحدث بلسان رابع مع الثوار الكوبيين وشيوعيي العالم
ويتحدث بلسان خامس مع اليهود
ويتحدث بلسان سادس مع نظام البشير وعلى عثمان
ويتحدث بلسان سابع مع الترابى والؤتمر الشعبى
ويتحدث بلسان ثامن مع الحشود الجماهيريه
وهكذا دواليه...!!

إن صحت نظرية الإغتيال...فجون قرنق هو الذى قتل نفسه!

Post: #31
Title: Re: There will be no Self-determination in 2011: Analysis
Author: Haydar Badawi Sadig
Date: 08-02-2006, 04:23 PM
Parent: #30

فوق!