مصر ترجع الي دولة الجنرال الواحد مقال من ال BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23780839

The July coup: From 2013 to 1954?

The July 2013 coup could lead Egypt into several bleak scenarios.


They are not certain, but the future of Egypt's democracy is certainly in danger.

When elected institutions are removed by military force, past patterns show that the outcome is almost never favourable to democracy: outright military dictatorship, military-domination of politics with a civilian facade, civil war, civil unrest or a mix of all of the above.

A few highlights include Spain in 1936, Iran in 1953, Chile in 1973, Turkey in 1980, Sudan in 1989, and Algeria in 1992.

The July coup is a backward step for democratic civilian-military relations.

Even more worrying are its regional implications.

The message sent by the coup to Libya, Syria, Yemen and beyond is that of militarising politics: only arms guarantee political rights, not the constitution, not democratic institutions and certainly not votes.

In the end, what remains certain is that no democratic transition is complete without targeting abuse, eradicating torture, ending exclusion, and annulling the impunity of security services, with effective and meaningful civilian control of both the armed forces and the security establishment.

This will always be the ultimate test of Egypt's democratic transition.

Dr Omar Ashour is a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics and Security Studies at the University of Exeter.

He is non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Doha Center and the author of The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements and From Good Cop to Bad Cop: The Challenge of Security Sector Reform in Egypt.

The armed versus the elected

A forward step was taken towards balancing civilian-military relations following the election of President Mohammed Morsi in 2012.

In August of that year, Mr Morsi was not only able to freeze the constitutional addendum enforced by the Scaf in June 2012, but also to purge the generals who had issued it (Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawy and his deputy, General Sami Anan).

There was a price to pay for such moves, though.
In the 2012 constitution, approved by 63.83% of Egyptian voters, civilian-military relations were far from balanced. Not only would the defence minister have to exclusively be a military officer (article 195), but also the National Defence Council (NDC) would have a majority of military commanders (article 197). This effectively gives the military a veto over any national security or sensitive foreign policy issue.

"If you add one of yours, I will add one of mine," yelled General Mamdouh Shahin, the army representative in the Constitutional Assembly, at Mohammed el-Beltagy, a now-wanted Muslim Brotherhood leader.

The latter suggested an additional civilian in the NDC, the head of the treasury committee in the parliament. His suggestion was rejected. And it was all caught on camera.