Sudan: No Sanctions Equal Small Victory for Khartoum

Summary

The White House has passed on the opportunity to levy new sanctions against Sudan -- creating an opportunity for the government in Khartoum to strengthen its position in peace negotiations with southern rebels.

Analysis

U.S. President George W. Bush on April 22 declined to impose sanctions against Sudan, saying the government had shown good faith in trying to negotiate a peace deal with southern rebels. Under the Sudan Peace Act, signed in October 2002, Bush has the authority to levy harsh sanctions against Khartoum and to increase financial assistance to rebels if peace talks were not advancing. The act comes up for review every six months.

The administration's decision to hold off on sanctions is a victory for the government in Khartoum: It shows Washington's satisfaction with the peace talks and, more important, its satisfaction with the level of cooperation that Khartoum is providing against Islamist militants and their organizations. Despite Sudan's opposition to the U.S. war in Iraq, Washington wants to maintain working ties with the government there. Khartoum will use the next six months to strengthen its own negotiating position regarding both the rebels in the south and with Washington.

Relations between the United States and Sudan have been tense at the best of times over the last decade. Washington already has levied economic and political sanctions against Khartoum for supporting militant groups -- including at one time providing sanctuary to Osama bin Laden. Several U.S. charities also provide humanitarian aid and assistance to rebels in southern Sudan in their war against the government.

Northern Sudan, the seat of government, is a predominantly Arab Muslim region, while the rebels in the south are largely Christian-Animist tribes. The rebel groups, led by the Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) want to secede from the Muslim north. However, the rebels and the government signed the Machokos Protocol in July 2002 -- a document that calls for the cessation of hostilities in exchange for an exemption from Islamic Sharia law for southern Sudan. The cease-fire would pave the way for a referendum on independence in 2008.

For Sudan, the peace talks are a welcome means of ending the nearly 20-year-old civil war. From the rebels' standpoint, U.S. intervention has given them a chance to enter into negotiations from a position of strength. Both sides still accuse the other of cease-fire violations and neither wants to make concessions to the other -- but at the same time, the talks allow both to rebuild their energies without losing advantages on the battlefield.

Even with the U.S. pressure to reach a peace deal, talks continue to drag on, with regular meetings between representatives from both sides. The recent talks between Sudanese President Omar al Bashir and rebel leader John Garang were meant to be perceived as a substantive effort toward ending the war.

That effort is part of the reason why the White House has decided not to impose additional sanctions against Khartoum. The government in Sudan, however, is in no hurry to finalize a peace deal: As long as Washington perceives that it is working in good faith toward that end, Khartoum also will be looking to find ways to weaken the rebels' position and reduce U.S. influence over Sudan's internal affairs.
Source: Stratfor news service