The Renaissance Dam is a Whirlwind in a Cup and no Reason for Negotiations

11:59 PM March, 05 2021

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The Nile River Basin consists of 10 sub-basins, respectively, from south to north: 1- Lake Victoria, 2- Lake Albert, 3- Nile Victoria, Lake Kyoga, 4- Bahr el Ghazal, 5- Bahr el Jabal, 6- Baro Akobo Sobat, 7- The White Nile, 8- The Blue Nile, 9 - Takazi, Atbara and 10- The Final Main Nile. And each of the subsidiary basins contributes to flows that aggregate in the final main Nile basin in northern Sudan and Egypt that begins in Khartoum and ends in the Mediterranean.

The Blue Nile is the largest contributor to the flow of the Nile River. From 1915 to 2014, the average annual river flow at the Deem station was about 50 BCM when the Blue Nile enters Sudan. Including the contributions of the Dinder and Rahad rivers to the Blue Nile, inside Sudanese territory and before its arrival in Khartoum, it is about 4 BCM. Therefore, the contribution of the Blue Nile at the site of the Renaissance Dam represents about 55 percent of the combined flows of all tributaries of the Nile when the main Nile enters Egypt, and the rest of the other branch flows contribute 42 BCM.

The White Nile at Khartoum brings 28.5 BCM and the Blue Nile brings 50 BCM, and after Khartoum brings the Rahad and Dinder rivers 4 BCM, then the Atbara River brings 12 BCM, and the Nile River is exposed to losses before entering Egypt, its total of 10.5 BCM, the net of what enters Egypt becomes 84 BCM, and if Ethiopia stops the Blue Nile completely, which means a war with Sudan, and this is totally impossible. The net amount that enters Egypt will remain 34 BCM of the Nile water

The Blue Nile is very seasonal, with nearly 70 percent of its flow occurring in just 4 months (peak flows were recorded between July and September). The reservoir volume of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is 74 BCM, which is about 1.5 times the average annual flow (50 BCM) of the Blue Nile on the Sudanese-Egyptian border.

The storage capacity of Lake Nasser is 167 BCM and the dead storage capacity is 32 BCM. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water in Egypt, with a share of 61.35 billion m3 in 2016/2017, which represents 76.7% of total drinking water uses, reaching 10.75 billion m3, which represents 13.4% of total uses, and the remaining water uses amounted to 7.9 billion m3 with a ratio. 9.9%.

The Egyptian Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics indicated that the Nile River is the main resource for water in Egypt, with its share of it amounting to 55.5 billion m3, which represents 69.4% of the total water resources in 2016/2017. Recycled desalinated sea water by about 24.5 billion m3 in 2016/2017 compared to 20.75 billion m3 in 2015/2016, an increase of 18.1%.

I do not think that Egypt is concerned with any dam on the Nile as long as it has sufficient reserves in the High Dam Lake. However, as soon as the reserve in Lake Nasser becomes critical, Egypt will warn any country of any hostile obstruction to the Nile River and will take immediate measures to remove intended threats to Egypt's water security.

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