| 09-13-2009, 11:33 AM |
محمد فرح
 محمد فرح
Registered: 09-14-2006
Total Posts: 9222
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 An American report says :(8) millions in south , with 50% of them have 3 millions piese of weapons
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An American report says population in south Sudan (8) millions, with 50% of them possessing arms which amount to (3) million pieses.
South Sudan, a scene of coming civil war
Some observer are of the opinion that the current conflict in south sudan over tribal boundaries and grazing arwas sets the scene for a civil war which will not only affect south sudan , but will also impact its neighbours.
According to jizeera website, more than (314) people were killed in tribal clashes, with more than (225) injured in others between the Dinka and the Murle, let alone other casualties in other areas. At aforum held by juba university center for pease studies, Dr. Akok, an academiciane argued that since the colonial era south Sudan has been divided into herdsmen and farmers who used to rule themselves .
Dr Akok links the advent of SPLM with the spread of arms , attributing the latter to three reasons namely, what has been known as southerner struggle for their right, or defending the tribe or personal property. Or, settlement of scores with individuals or the government.
The southern academician states that conflict erupted over ownership of grazing areas, boundaries or
ng. He notes that aconflict like the recent one between Mandari and Baria was not known befor, and that inter-tribal conflict are claiming daily lives now.
He blames that on the prevailing state of carelessness and the spread of arms. Situation, the restrain on movement of people and trade will hamper development efforts and negatively affect the social, economical and political activities in south Sudan
South sudan on a gunpowder barrel
The Arabic languagh newspaper, AL- sharg Al-Awsat quoted on july 10th a report by an American institute on the spread of arms among south Sudan tribes.
The report said both go SS and UN forcws failed to disarm south sudan tribes, warning against the consequences of that on security in the region, particularly that election will be held next year, to be followed by referendum in the year after.
A similar reported was issued by human Rright watch. However,the independent center report was more pessimistic, casting doubt on GoSS and UN ability to disarm tribes. The report was critical of the disarmament policy which involved raping,
ng rendering lives of citizens more worse. The report described as ‘stupid’ GoSS and UN for describing that that policy was ‘successes. “Even if the tribes were disarmed, there is no evidence that shows this will help to maintain security “the report says.Adding tribal leaders will not surrender their arms unless they were convinced that the GoSS would protect them. It seems that the report was right as the disarmament operation are faced with several difficulties such as tribal irresponsive to these programmes, feeling of insecurity and GoSS weaknes to maintain security especially that the LRA presence in south has become a security threat.
Joseph Garang, a member of south sudan democratic Coalition expects that conflicts will continue under the presence of armed militias, adding that even ordinary citizens now possess arms, and hence control of clashes will be difficult. Kortello, the political secretary of greater equatoria at NCP says he argued withGarang, adding that the ordinary citizens cannot differentiate between civilians and military personal .
Kortello notes that the war in south sudan was led by militias before the siging of the CPA and that tribal wars have opened the door for flow of arms across the border extending from Ethiopia to republic of central Africa. He argues that possession of arms is on the increase due to GoSS failure to protect citizens, as well as not brining to justice anyone on charge of abuse of arms .
Jamal AL-Sarraj, spokesperson for SPLM-DC is in agreement with what kortello belief that the possession or arms for self-protection was responsible for security violations while GoSS was unable to check violations and spread security.
“The flow of arms always comesthrough Kenyan border because they are open and Kenyan frontiers guards reseve bribes” he was quoted as saying. Smuggline of arms and money were often disguised as dead bodies coffins, he added.
A report on arms spread attributed the phenomwnon to GoSS task of mechanisms to collect arms and payment of compenstations to the disarmed.
SPLA, Adversary and Referee:
No one can dismiss the involvement of SPLA in the bloody course of CPA. In fact SPLA was always a pasrty to these incidents, not only putting them under control, but also attacking citizens possession of arms was necessary for their protection against SPLA.
Following the signing of the CPA,a large number of SPLA fighter were disbanded as redundant or physically handicapped without receiving remunerations.
Under the circumstance, they took up arms and attacked tribes to earn a living.
Joseph Garang draws attention to the fact that SPLA has not yet acquired the character of a regular army, citing as example the militia of paolino matip which is still keeping its arms.
Likewise, according to him, the mundari tribe kept its arms and refused to join SPLA or the Sudanese Armed forces. Dr.Gai, A presidential Advisor, last my told Sudanese On line that south sudan hass been engulfed in problems, noting the recent intense dealing with these problems.
He blames the current conflict on failure to pay army salaries, maladministration of the military institution and the cpllapse of the latter, he added that SPLA was involved in setting of scores among southerners themselves.
Due to the internal conflicts within SPLA, salvakiir has entered big sudan changes to the chief-of-staff establishment, but till now SPLA has remained a security threat to civilians in south sudan . As a result, observers believ that this situation could develop into a civil war in south sudan, with SPLA being a party to that war. On the other hand, it is believed that the economic conditions south Sudan is passing through could trigger SPLA muting against GoSS as happened before when they closed juba- yei road in protest of non-payment of their salaries .
Observers also maintain that the broke-away of some leading figures took a political dimension, while the army mutiny – if it happened – will be grave for it would take amilitary character.
International community position on violence in south sudan
In a statement UNSG Representative to sudan said the number of southerners killed in tribal clash in south sudan was more than those killed in Darfur .
Following vissito Upper Nile and jonglei states last june, the representative said the clashes that took place there claimed hundreds of lives, and left thousands of people displaced .
He affirmed that UNMIS has deployed (12) troops and police in Agok and Bibor, in addition to providing humanitarian aid.
As a result of this statement, GoSS said UN was not mandated to contain conflict in south sudan .
That concern about the situation in south sudan as not confined to UNSG representative. The UN human Rights Council Rapporteur, Sima Samara also stated that the situation there was deteriorating civilians. Samar demanded international community to show more concern about south sudan .
On his part, WFP representative argues that violence in south sudan would hamper relief delivery, citing the attack on a relief river convoy by nuer armed groups last june . As a result of that attack, (19) thousand displaced were deparived of relief assistance, while (400) SPLA personal sc0uting the boats were killed.
In his turn , UN coordinater for south sudan , has stressed the necessity containing violence in south sudan before the election and the referendum to creat the climate favourable for them .
He expressed readiness to give support to the parties concerned to achieve that . He further attributed the increase of violence in south sudan to yhe after – affects of war, spread of arms and inter – tribal conflict over vital living resources . In addition to the vulnerability of the judiciary system and lack of infrastructure .
He further pointed out that the current cycle of violence hampers the voluntary return of IDPs and refugees, referring to the negative impact the recent jonglei incidents have on that return .
Condition in south sudan worse than ever:
Observer of mutiny in 1955, might have noticed that condition there were never worse than they are now. The current scene now is fire with all components of civil war. Arms are spread in large quantities, conflicts are continued. GoSS is weak, with SPLA likely to mutiny against it as a result of the hard circumstances it is passing through.
Under yhe circumstances, the southern political forces should be alarmed in order to intervene to intervene to pick up the pieces in the aftermath of SPLM failure to navigate south sudan in the right course.
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