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 Sudan’s Threats of Instability
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08:16 AM May, 15 2018 سودانيز اون لاين
ghariba-القاهرة - جمهورية مصر العربية
مكتبتى
رابط مختصرSudan’s Threats of InstabilityNow Sudan is on the cross-roads of stability and chaos. Three elements put Sudan in this precarious juncture. Once David Russell said: “The hardest thing to learn in life is which bridge to cross and which to burn”. Each one of the three elements has two bridges – one to cross and the other to burn.1. The Economic Collapse:It is clear that Sudan is now on the verge of slipping into a total economic collapse. David Meyer, analyst and writer wrote an article about the economic collapse.Excerpts:“History has shown that economic collapse will essentially happen in five stages:Stage 1: Everything is good and the economy is thriving. Goods are cheap and readily available. That nation’s infrastructure is solidly intact. However, the idea that everyone is entitled to have what others have earned now permeates society. Redistribution of wealth policies are implemented and quietly woven into the fabric of society. Unchecked and under the guise of fairness and equality, these policies slowly decrease productivity and increase dependency on entitled and welfare programmes.Stage 2: The Slipping Slope:The economy goes into a slow but steadily increasing decline. Unemployment is on the rise. Ever increasing number of people receives government assistance in one form or another. People are paid not to work. Government spending has increased dramatically. The prices of commodities rise to levels unheard of just a few years earlier. Inflation reaches double digit.Stage 3: It is Going to Get Worse:The total collapse of the economy begins after a significant and prolonged decline. The government implements price controls. Shortages on essential goods become widespread. Middle class dissolves into the lower class. The government begins to print currency to pay its bills and support the tens of millions on public assistance. Inflation increase even more and unemployment exceeded 25%. Banks and businesses fail at ever increasing rates. Nobody seems to have any money. Many are now poor. Labour unions instigate strikes, civil unrest and large scale riots. Government services are interrupted. Local and national infrastructure is in decay. Violent gangs begin to appear. The government begins confiscation of firearms from law abiding citizens. Violence is everywhere. Cities and urban areas become very dangerous places to live in. At this stage the country seems pretty much beyond the point of no return. However, things can still be reversed eve at this stage, if the right person at the top really believes in basic fundamental concepts of freedom, independence, liberty, and individual rights and is not afraid to do what is necessary to reverse the current trend. He will be vilified and hated because of his attitude toward personal responsibility, cutting entitlements and ending welfare programmes. Of course, if the right person was in power and did what need to be done, none of this would have happened in the first place.Stage 4: The Grab for PowerThe collapse can transition to this stage at any time after stage 3. Most of the middle class have lost everything. The nation’s infrastructure has been seriously neglected, foreign currency becomes dear and rare, and inflation is out of control. Now the economy collapses. There is a rush for everything and shelves go empty is a matter of hours. Society falls into chaos; violent gangs takeover control of streets. The government issues restrictive measures in an attempt to control the eonoy. Everything is in short supply and heavily rationed. Food and gasoline is very expensive and there are very long lines to get them. The situation gets worse .. much worse.Step 5: Freedom, Liberty and Independence Are LostThe government implements Martial Law, fighting between civilians and government forces break out nationwide. Severe poverty and starvation become common sight. The government offers marginally acceptable food, water and shelter in exchange for your freedom, liberty, and independence. Democracy ends and a socialist form of government takes over under the guise of fixing society’s problems with false promise that peace and prosperity will return. A totalitarian regime assumes power and the individual freedom and liberties once enjoyed are completely eliminated.Projecting the above five stges to our situation, I believe we are in stage 3 which according to David Meyer can only be reversed by a strong top man who is not afraid of taking hard corrective decision. In my opinion those are:a. Rejecting the 2018 budget and replacing it with a crash-emergency one which reduces expenditure by 50% especially that of governance, subsidies, peace and security.b. Nullify all of the decrees of the Central Bank of Sudan which restricted imports, exports and the free dealing in foreign currency.c. Ruthlessly fighting corruption and taking corrupts to high summary military courts.2. Withdrawing Troops from Yemen:This will be a grave mistake which will aggravate the economic deterioration. In the first place it will defeat the high values and objectives of contributing in the efforts of restoration off the legitimate rule in Yemen. Secondly it will cause an irreversible crack in our long and historical relations with KSA and the UAE.3. The this element is the right stance of Sudan between two axes at logger-#########. KAS, UAE, Egypt and USA is the right option. Once we genuinely and credibly lean to it, the economic collapse will be reversed. The other axis of Iran, Qatar and Turkey is under heavy fire from first axis and all European countries. They are all busy locked in protecting their countries from embargoes and sanctions. Russia is economically unfit to support us. Iran is back under US economic sanctions.Those were the three elements threatening the stability, solidarity and peace in Sudan.
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(عدل بواسطة ghariba on 05-15-2018, 08:32 AM)
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ghariba
Kostawi
Hassan Makkawi
فيس بوك
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