فاينانشال تايمز: شكوك في التزام الصين باقراض جنوب السودان ال 8 مليار

Quote: South Sudan has yet to secure financing to make up for lost oil revenues, according to officials and diplomats, who say that only a fraction of a reported “$8bn loan” from China has been agreed. South Sudan officials initially said Salva Kiir, president, secured the loan towards infrastructure during a trip to Beijing earlier this month. Such a sum would have put the south in a stronger position as it resumes negotiations with neighbouring Sudan over a range of thorny issues left unresolved when the two countries split last July after decades of civil war. But it now appears the true figure is much smaller and nowhere near enough to make up for revenues lost from oil. Production was halted when talks with Khartoum over transit and pipeline fees broke down in February. Subsequent fighting between Sudan and South Sudan led the UN Security Council to threaten both sides with sanctions unless they resumed talks by this Wednesday. South Sudan had relied on oil for about 98 per cent of state revenues, and the north for just over 40 per cent. Both states are at increasing risk of collapse unless they strike a deal over security and oil. “At the moment what has been concluded and signed is in the region of $170 [million],” said Kornelio Koriom Mayik, South Sudan’s central bank governor, of the Chinese financing. Some officials in Juba, the south’s capital, had hoped China would help build a pipeline through east Africa that would allow them to avoid paying for the use of existing Chinese-built infrastructure in Sudan. But Mr Mayik said: “The Chinese didn’t agree to build a new pipeline; they said ‘we built one [in the north already]; you use it’.” Western diplomats believe the smaller sums on offer from China are towards a new embassy in Beijing and a $150m preferred supplier credit agreement to revamp the airport in Juba. “The $8 billion figure seems to have referred to the potential worth of South Sudan and China’s relationship in 10 years’ time, should oil get going again,” said a western diplomat, describing the sum as “an initial wow-factor for the domestic audience”. Chinese officials have not elaborated. Beijing, which has multibillion-dollar investments on both sides of the border, has been at the heart of diplomatic efforts to get the two countries back to the negotiating table. “China fully understands South Sudan as a new country is facing many difficulties and challenges and is willing to offer whatever help China could offer to the South,” the Chinese foreign ministry told the FT, avoiding detailed questions about the loan. It added that it wanted “more powerful, reputable Chinese companies” to invest in the South. As well as the Chinese money, South Sudan has secured a $100m credit line from Qatar National Bank and is discussing a further $500m deal with “a bank in the Gulf” says Mr Mayik. But inflation in Juba is already rising, fuel is in short supply and the local currency is depreciating on the black market. “A lot of foreign businesses are weighing up leaving,” says an international businessman based in Juba, complaining that the government has raised taxes to an “unacceptable level” after the oil was shut down. “We are importing nearly everything and we are only drawing on reserves, so of course we have some difficulties,” says Mr Mayik. “On my calculations unless there are shocks we can go for another seven months without oil,” he said, using foreign reserves “in the region of $1.5bn”. Sudan, too, is under growing economic pressure. The finance ministry says the oil stoppage has created a $2.4bn hole in state finances, sending exports down 83 per cent and annual inflation to 28.6 per cent in April. Ministers have given up a month of wages to fund the war effort.