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 د. أمين مالك بدري ... يقرأ احوال السودان عبر زيارة ميدانية فاحصة ... نجاح أكثر وقبح أقل
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د. أمين مالك ... سليل خصب من أسرة بدري, المعروفة للسودان بتاريخها المتصل بالمنافحة لتعليم أهل السودان, وتفعيل المعرفة فى عقولهم , حتي صارت مبادرة تلك العائلة { البدرية } من الروافع الناجزة لتاريخ التعليم في السودان ... وإن توليت عرضا هذا المدخل, لكنه يضيف لصاحب المقال وزنه العلمي ويدغمه فى سياقه التاريخي الحري بالإعتبار...بل ربما هي مناسبة لتحية وتعظيم كل من غرس بذرة للعلم ومن رعى حوضا للوعي, فما أنهك قوى السودان غير التخلف وما عاق طريقه غير الجهل ... فلنتتسع للمعرفة وتسديد الخطى.
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Re: د. أمين مالك بدري ... يقرأ احوال السودان عبر زيارة ميدانية فاحصة ... نجاح أكثر وقبح أقل (Re: HAYDER GASIM)
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New Impressions from my visit to Sudan in 2008:
More Good, Less Bad and Some Ugly
By Amin Malik, Ph.D.,
[email protected]
Toronto, Canada.
Introduction:
I am writing these impressions after my visit to Sudan during the period September – October 2008, during which I had the opportunity, in addition to my stay in Khartoum, to visit the Blue Nile State for few days. The new impressions are meant to update the impressions I wrote in the article that I shared with group two years ago, when I visited Sudan after an absence of more than five years. As the case of the previous write-up, I still feel that I have the advantage of the external evaluator and the merit of relative objectivity, and that the thoughts reflected here are not meant to be scientific, though they draw from a mixture of methods. Again, I am sharing my new impressions with friends and fellow Sudanese who are still wondering “Is there change in Sudan?”, and my be asking another question: “Is Sudan progressing?”. You may share these new impressions with other friends and fellow Sudanese, and I certainly welcome any comments or suggestions you may have on them.
Methodology:
A combination of methods were used:
• Direct observation- just watching with a skillful eye
• Talking and listening to key informants – including relatives, friends, people in influential positions (politicians, senior government officials, national UN and NGO staff) and people who are not related to me (taxi drivers, security guards in government offices, government staff, etc.
• Secondary information: reviewing statistics from international development agencies like the UN, The World Bank, reading newspapers, watching TV, and listening to the numerous radio stations whenever possible.
• Testing the system by doing actual business in government offices and private facilities.
I have again used the above methods to evaluate the progress made since my last visit to Sudan two years ago and will keep avoiding falling in the trap of comparing Sudan to North America – as any comparison would not be fair. What I will adopt is comparing the current situation with the past, and with the potential – what it could have been achieved, taking all aspects of change into consideration (including the conflict in Darfur, the issue with the ICC and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the conflict in the South, and the impact of the oil revenues).
The Findings:
The Good: More Good:
Sudan is certainly sustaining the process of modernization that I reported in my previous article two years ago: a structural socio-economic change from a traditional to a modern economy is under way. This change was facilitated by the significant increase in its national revenue generated from the oil exports and was enhanced by the peace agreement that ended the civil war in the South, which resulted in a continued reduction in military expenditures.
Although the type of economic growth taking place still exhibits the symptoms of oil-exporting countries, there are some indications of economic development. (Oil producing countries are characterized by high financial revenues coupled with lack of social development – including achievements in the arenas of human rights, democracy and equality in wealth distribution). Developing countries are generally characterized by structural flaws in their economies: a large agricultural sector (based on peasant farming, fishery or nomadic herding) coupled with a small industrial sector, specially the manufacturing sub-sector. If no serious development activities take place, oil-producing developing countries, like Sudan, usually end up utilizing the financial surplus generated by the oil revenues in non-productive economic activities, like the case of the Gulf States.
However, Sudan seems to be progressing relatively well so far. According to the UNDP Human Development Report (2007/08), Sudan’s Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.526 based on 2005 data, which ranked it as number 147 out of the 177 countries included in the report. The HDI is a measure that combines economic growth indicators (Like the GDP) with social development indicators. Although the report classified Sudan in the Middle Human Development category, which is a positive step in itself as we used to be located in the lowest category, this score was lower than the average HDI for developing countries, which was 0.691. Countries like Bangladesh, Congo and Haiti were ranked above Sudan using that measure. Data on social development indicators in that report like commitment of GDP share to health and education place Sudan on the same category of Middle Human Development, which indicates some progress.
Moreover, and as discussed earlier, measures of economic growth clearly indicate the jump in this category of indicators as a result of oil revenues: the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Sudan is estimated at US $27.5 billion (GDP) and the GDP per capita at US $760 in the report, which maintains Sudan’s level at the middle income category. Updates from other sources, including the IMF, the World Bank and the CIA, shows that the GDP has doubled within two years in 2007, with the estimates ranging from 45 to 50 billion dollars. What an increase in two years!
The outcomes of economic development, as a result of the economic growth discussed above, are mainly generated by three sectors that are leading the process:
1. The oil exploration sector and the medium scale and small scale industries and services linked to it
2. The tele-communications sector
3. The construction sector
The link between these three sectors is obvious: oil revenues are mainly used to re-build the infrastructures of the country: bridges, dams, highways, hospitals, schools, universities and within-city roads. That is, the oil sector is providing direct support to the construction sector. The tele-communications sector, on the other hand, is providing support to all sectors of the economy and is making benefit of the virgin demand. These three sectors provide significant employment opportunities as well as dealership contracts that resulted in significant improvement in the lives of the people who are directly, or indirectly, involved in these sectors. During my visit to the Blue Nile State, it was common to see villagers making calls using their cell phones.
Nevertheless, agriculture (both farming and livestock) remains to be the true wealth of Sudan. The building of the Morwi dam and the increase of the capacity of Elrosairis dam will enable the irrigation of millions of farm land, as well the generation of electric power that could be used for farming purposes. This will be the first step towards lifting the Sudanese giant. The wealth generated by agriculture could have more equitable distribution of wealth and would enable the establishment of industrial development that will generate true addition to the value of agricultural products, starting with forward linkage industries like food processing, and backward linkages like fertilizer industry.
Other significant development and infrastructure projects being implemented include the White Nile Sugar Project, the new international airport, and the various bridges being built in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan. There were four bridges in Khartoum in 1999; there will be about nine by the end of this year. The two old bridges in Khartoum have been renovated. During my visit to the Blue Nile State, I have also seen two bridges almost completed: one linking Alhasahisa with Rufaa and the other linking Singa with the eastern bank of the Blue Nile river. Both bridges will have positive impact on the local economies. More bridges and highways are being, or have already been, built in the northern states, linking them to the capital and port cities.
The Services sector of the economy is also transforming. More linkages to international markets are being established through dealership and contractual relations with international companies and more advanced methods of business management are being used.
Khartoum continued its renovation into a pretty city. More roads are being opened, old roads were widened and enhanced road lightening, high-rise buildings continued to be built that are comparable to international standards and good quality hotels and restaurants that offer international food choice. Archaic buildings that used to be residence of police soldiers in excellent locations were demolished and plans for their development are under way.
Airport staff were more friendly and professional than they used to be, while the airport itself is not yet to international standards, though some improvements are obvious.
Abundance: everything is available, whatsoever you are looking for starting from your choice of grocery to renting an SUV. The cost of public transport is still low compared to what it used to be and to international standards.
Availability of employment, especially for people with professional skills, international experience and a good command of English, is the norm. Salaries for such categories continued its improvement and are comparable to international levels. Even government employees have their ways of enhancing their compensation through incentives and using other methods, especially for activities and duties they perform that are not explicitly included in their job descriptions.
As in my previous visit, the sense of belonging, the warmth, and the reduced stress is amazing: “nothing is like being home.” Meeting and enjoying the company of relatives and friends provides a sense of satisfaction and happiness that may not be measured or valued. Everything tastes different: the water, the milk, the meat, even the junk food tastes well, the fruits and vegetables taste superbly and the air is fresh, even the mosquito bites don’t cause Malaria anymore, as stated publicly by the Health Minister during my visit!
Less bad:
Life expenses in Khartoum continued to rise at astronomical rates. Last July, the monthly inflation rate was estimated at 20%. High prices go from necessities like food, electric power, medical care and gasoline. If the salaries of limited-income people are contrasted to these expenses, I wonder how this category of people survive. People continue to be working longer hours, and sometimes more than one job, to compensate for the deficit. The middle-class is still squeezed between the limited income and the rising cost of living and hence has little time to think of or even discuss politics. No one is talking politics any more in Khartoum: people either talk about business or about the education expenses of their children. This brings us to the major issue of the sustained deterioration of public school system.
No exception, all the people I talked to are still sending their children to private schools or to special elite secondary schools (Namoozagias), which receive special support from the government as well as from the parents. The students who go to the latter schools are the ones with the highest academic scores in the public system. The cost of sending a child to a private school is escalating, and it is certainly one of the most significant expenditure items incurred by families – it is in the millions! Families move to Khartoum from other cities in Sudan just to achieve the purpose of sending their children to good private schools or to good universities.
What is happening here is a consequence a World-Bank approach to development, which postpones (or even neglects) the reduction of negative social impact of structural adjustment policies on the majority of people who do not get the direct benefits of the economic growth and development that are taking place. This is particularly significant when the government’s lack of a clear political program that could mitigate the negative impact of socio-economic change on the majority of the population is considered. What is being offered through the Islamic Zakat system is certainly not covering all the needy segments of the society. Although I have seen on the Madani highway some vision and mission statements for the government hanging on large banners, there is no translation to these statements into policies that show that the strategic direction and priorities are being addressed seriously.
Unless mitigating measures are introduced, this type of development would ultimately result in social polarization of people, especially the middle class, into two categories: the one that benefits from the situation, which is a smaller segment, and the vast majority that would continue to be impoverished, alienated and would be subjected to various social risks including resorting to violent political protests, crime, unemployment, illiteracy, domestic violence, chronic health problems and child abuse/neglect. The social cost of exclusion and oppression is high and the incidents that accompanied the death of John Garang are just an example.
The political crisis is far from being resolved. The follow-up to the peace agreement that ended the war in the south is not generating any hope for unity. It is still imperative that the South will choose independence. Very little is being done to promote unity.
The Darfur crisis is mounting and the Abuja Agreement, that was signed two years ago with one faction, has created no improvement to the situation. The UN-led forces that replaced the African Union’s one is not making a difference. The international community has not done any effort for two years to bring the government and the rebels to the negotiation table. It is only in October 2008 that a serious effort was initiated. The ICC prosecutor’s request to indict President Bashir complicates the issue further and gives both sides (The government and the international community) a card to use for pressuring the other. The Government threatens to kick the UN forces out of Darfur if the indictment is issued, while the international community would only suspend any arrest warrant if some true progress is achieved in Darfur. While this demagogic debate is ongoing, the fighting is continuing and the innocent people of Darfur remain to suffer.
The attack of Omdurman by the Justice and Equality Movement of Darfur (JEM), and before that the events that followed the death of John Garang, added a new dimension to the Sudanese problems. The people I talked to in Khartoum are certainly not sympathetic to the Darfur cause, or even that of the South, the way they used to be after the occurrence of these two events. The language is more painful and people are becoming more radical in their views, feeling that they have been terrorized for no reason. This weakens further the sense of national unity.
Any hope of an improvement lies in the ability of the current regime to modify itself into a democratic one, using internal and external forces as driving forces. Internal opposition and the international community could play a very positive role in transforming Sudan into a democratic country. No one is currently calling for the eradication of the regime. Instead, the call is for developing the regime into a better one. The first step will be the forthcoming election, which will reflect whether the political field has changed during the 20 years of the various faces of the Ingaz regime. People should not rush the change. If you just recall history, you would realize that all South European countries (from Portugal to Turkey), with the exception of France, were ruled by totalitarian and/or military regimes up to the 1970’s. History tells us that people will always rise against totalitarian regimes. The ways they do that is different.
Less ugly:
People are better adjusting to the modernization process taking place in Sudan and the changes in life style that come with it. When I visited two years ago, I noticed that the change has impacted the Sudanese way of life. It seems like people are now more used to their new way of life. While people are still working longer hours, more time is devoted to social life and obligations.
The ugliest part of my visit was the driving. Heavy traffic continues to be a true nightmare in Khartoum. A friend of mine described it few years ago as a “Calcutta in the making” By now, it is certainly Calcutta-West for Omdurman, Calcutta-North for Khartoum-North (Bahari) and Calcutta-South for Khartoum! Although the new bridges eased the traffic in certain areas, traffic was diverted to other areas resulting in very heavy traffic in subsidiary streets that used to be good by-paths, like the Abroaf street along the river Nile. The style of driving is reflective of selfishness and aggression. There is a silent driving code: the large micro-bus (Hafla) goes first, the rest follows!
Part of the traffic congestion is created as a result of poor planning. It does not need a genius to figure out that extending the new Mak Nimir bridge for few meters over the University Street would be a good idea. Other errors in road design are obvious: how do you expect the traffic to flow in a four-way junction without a traffic light? How do you expect drivers to move from the slow lane of the express section of the highway to the fast lane of the collector section, or vise versa, in Africa Street near the airport, without an accident or without obstructing the flow of traffic?! Such flaws could have been avoided.
Conclusion:
Sudan is certainly a giant waiting for its turn to rise. The giant cannot yet rise a result of political ineffectiveness and lack of true leadership. As Dr Alboni stated in a column he wrote few days before the Eid, “We are entering a period of political “Kham Ramad”, after which the giant would either rise or will be destructed”. Lets all hope that it will rise. The indicators of economic growth and development, presented in this article, are encouraging and could only benefit us all if we have a political program, or at least stability, that would support it. I will conclude by violating a principle I stated for my self earlier in this article by avoiding comparison to North America, but I will do it any way. Over the 10 years I have been living in North America, I have seen all leaders of Canadian political parties, at all levels of governance, been replaces peacefully and institutionally. Lets hope the same may happen in the Sudan.
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HAYDER GASIM
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست