Somaliland: A Beacon of Hope for the Horn of Africa and Defeating Islamist Movements Dr. Ahmed Elt

11:06 PM November, 21 2024

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Somaliland: A Beacon of Hope for the Horn of Africa and Defeating Islamist Movements

Dr. Ahmed Eltigani Sidahmed

Introduction: A Model of Stability in a Troubled Region

@In the Horn of Africa, a region plagued by ongoing conflicts and political and security turmoil, Somaliland stands out as a unique example of stability and democracy.
*Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has made remarkable progress in building robust democratic institutions and fostering private-sector-driven economic development, despite its lack of international recognition as an independent state.
*This progress is not accidental but the result of tireless efforts to enhance good governance and invest in establishing national institutions that support democracy and lay the foundation for sustainable development.
*Nevertheless, the region as a whole remains vulnerable to threats posed by terrorism and regional conflicts that undermine its stability.

Somaliland: A Success Story in Development and Democracy

Somaliland has charted a path distinct from the rest of Somalia by establishing an elected government, a multi-party parliament, and a judicial system that operates with a significant degree of efficiency. These institutions have helped create a strong state capable of achieving progress despite immense regional challenges.

The private sector has played a pivotal role in Somaliland’s economy, from trade to telecommunications. One of the most notable economic achievements is the development of the Berbera Port, which has become a regional logistics hub thanks to international investments, such as those by DP World.

Bullet 1: Statistics

• South Somalia: Accurate and recent population statistics for South Somalia are unavailable. However, Somalia’s total population is estimated at around 15 million people.
• Somaliland: Covering approximately 137,600 square kilometers, Somaliland’s population is estimated at 3.5 million people, according to unofficial estimates.
• Somali Refugees: By the end of 2021, there were approximately 836,300 Somali refugees worldwide, including 420,000 in Kenya.

Bullet 2: A Personal Experience

*I have visited Somaliland, worked there, and interacted with many of its people, both locally and in the diaspora. It is a fully-fledged state with an elected parliament and government that has served multiple terms despite the looming threats of terrorism. I witnessed firsthand the consistent training in governance, democracy, and state-building supported by U.S. aid projects.
*The private sector is the engine of the economy, with Somalis in Somaliland running businesses of all kinds, from small banks to power stations. What struck me most was the deep connection between the diaspora and the homeland; many migrants spend their holidays in Hargeisa and the surrounding villages, passing on Somali culture to their children while building homes and schools.

Terrorism in South Somalia: A Barrier to Development

**In stark contrast to Somaliland’s relative stability, South Somalia suffers from the destructive effects of Islamist armed movements like Al-Shabaab. These groups pose a constant threat to stability, using violence and terrorism to achieve political aims, leading to the collapse of state institutions and hindering reconstruction efforts.

Impact of Terrorism on the Horn of Africa

**The ramifications of terrorism extend beyond South Somalia, affecting neighboring countries. For instance, Ethiopia and Kenya have experienced cross-border attacks by Al-Shabaab, increasing their security burdens. Terrorism is also linked to criminal networks involved in human trafficking, arms smuggling, and gold trade, undermining government control and deepening regional crises.

Somaliland and Regional Conflicts

**Despite its success in maintaining internal stability, Somaliland is not immune to the effects of regional conflicts. For example, the ongoing disputes in Sudan present a destabilizing factor for the entire Horn of Africa.
• Arms and Human Trafficking: Sudan’s conflict exacerbates trafficking networks that cross borders into the Horn of Africa, threatening Somaliland’s development and stability plans.
• Impact on Trade: Border conflicts and instability disrupt trade and maritime navigation, potentially hindering economic growth in Somaliland.

International Policies and Their Regional Impact

1. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan

• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): GERD remains a focal point of tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. International mediation could help broker an agreement that secures Egypt’s water rights while respecting Ethiopia’s sovereignty.
• Sudanese Conflict: The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) poses a significant challenge to regional stability.

2. Eritrea’s Role in Destabilization

Eritrea has often played a dual role by supporting some armed movements, further complicating regional security dynamics.

3. Iranian and Russian Influence

The presence of Iran and Russia in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa poses strategic challenges. Strengthening regional alliances with Gulf countries and Somaliland could help mitigate this influence and bolster stability.

Trump’s Potential Policies: Anticipated Changes

1. Supporting Ethiopia’s Stability

A potential Trump administration might focus on backing the peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, thereby reinforcing Ethiopia’s stability.

2. Combating Terrorism in Sudan

Trump might work to curb Islamist influence in Sudan by supporting democratic forces such as the “Taqaddum” coalition led by Dr. Abdalla Hamdok, the legitimate prime minister before the military coup. Such efforts could help counteract smuggling, financing of armed groups, and Islamist networks.

3. Promoting International Recognition for Somaliland

Reports suggest that the United States might consider recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, opening new doors for development and investment.

Conclusion: Hope for Stability and Development

**At a time when South Somalia faces challenges of terrorism and chaos, Somaliland offers an inspiring model of what can be achieved through popular and political will. With greater international support, Somaliland could become a beacon of hope for the Horn of Africa, helping address shared challenges, curb armed Islamist movements, and resolve regional conflicts.

*Achieving peace and development in the Horn of Africa—a region that has long been a hotspot for regional and international tensions—requires integrated efforts to combat terrorism, support democracy, and promote economic cooperation. Somaliland demonstrates that meaningful change is possible even under the most challenging circumstances.

Dr. Ahmed Eltigani Sidahmed
November 21, 2024, Rome, Italy

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