From Hargeisa to Bab al‑Mandab: Strategic Recognition of Somaliland – A Useful Step Toward Rebalanc

02:26 AM December, 26 2025

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احمد التيجاني سيد احمد-ايطاليا
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From Hargeisa to Bab al‑Mandab:
Strategic Recognition of Somaliland – A Useful Step Toward Rebalancing the Horn of Africa

Dr. Ahmed Eltigani SIDAHMED
26 December 2025. Rome – Italy

Introduction

This article is an independent political analysis that builds on a previous article of mine published on SudaneseOnline on 21 November 2024, in which I examined Somaliland as a model of state‑building in the Horn of Africa and the defeat of Islamist movements through institutions rather than violence.
The reference article can be accessed here:
https://sudaneseonline.com/cgi-bin/sdb/2bb.cgi؟seq=msgandboard=505andmsg=1732230344andrn=1

This analysis also draws on today’s news regarding the recognition of Somaliland, treating it as a pivotal political development signaling a shift in power balances in the Horn of Africa.

I write from a clear political position. I consider this recognition to be strategic, appropriate, and beneficial—not only for Somaliland, but for rebalancing the Horn of Africa, curbing armed Islamist expansion, and reducing the long‑term cost of instability borne by the peoples of the region.

Why This Recognition؟ Why Now؟ (Expanded Explanation)

For readers less familiar with the history of the Horn of Africa, the recognition of Somaliland may appear sudden or unexpected. In reality, it does not create a new reality; rather, it acknowledges one that has existed for more than three decades. Somaliland declared its separation from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of the central state, and since then has performed most core state functions without formal international recognition.

Throughout this long period, Somaliland did not descend into civil war, state collapse, or domination by extremist groups. Instead, it built local governance institutions based on social consensus, periodic elections, peaceful transfers of power, and relative respect for the rule of law within limited means. This steady, cumulative path distinguishes Somaliland from much of its regional environment.

The distinction between Somaliland and southern Somalia is therefore fundamental. Southern Somalia has remained trapped in state collapse, the rise of Al‑Shabaab, and internationalized conflict, becoming a persistent regional security threat. Somaliland, by contrast, managed to contain these dynamics, secure its territory, and prevent it from becoming a sanctuary for terrorism, despite limited resources and the absence of recognition.

From this perspective, recognition should not be read as ideological alignment or a narrow political alliance. Rather, it reflects a strategic assessment of stability and governing capacity. At a time when Bab al‑Mandab and the Red Sea have become matters of global security, entities capable of ensuring minimum order and security inevitably attract growing international attention, regardless of unresolved legal debates over recognition.

The international shift from defending collapsed maps to engaging with stable political realities is not new in international relations. Somaliland represents a case of quiet state‑building that waited patiently and is now gradually entering the realm of realpolitik.

Explanatory Box | For the Non‑Specialist Reader

• Somaliland has existed as a functioning political entity since 1991.
• It has a government, parliament, elections, and relatively stable internal security.
• It is fundamentally different from southern Somalia, which has suffered from terrorism and state failure.
• Current recognition acknowledges a long‑standing reality rather than creating a new one.
• The core logic of recognition is stability, not slogans.

Political Conclusion

This expanded explanation is deliberate. Debate over Somaliland is often reduced to headlines, while the moment demands deeper clarification. Strategic recognition of Somaliland is not a political reward, but a logical outcome of a long process of state‑building outside the frameworks of political Islam and militarization.

References

1) Ahmed Eltigani Sidahmed, “Somaliland: Hope for Developing the Horn of Africa and Defeating Islamist Movements,” SudaneseOnline, 21 November 2024.
2) “Israeli Recognition of Somaliland Ignites a Race for Influence in the Horn of Africa,” Al‑Tanwir, 26 December 2025.

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