Djibouti leads the African house By Khalid Hassan Yusuf

11:46 AM March, 03 2025

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Within the framework of the 38th Summit for the heads of Africa held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, the African Union announced on February 15, 2025, the victory of the candidate of the Republic of Djibouti and its foreign minister, Mr. Mahmoud Ali Youssef, to the presidency of the African Union Commission, after the loss of his Kenyan rival Raila Odinga, and he had held the position of Prime Minister of the Republic Kenya Previously, which was exposed to several successive political defeats during previous years.

While his djibouti rival had occupied an ancient experience in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which helped him to accumulate political and diplomatic work experience over the past decades, which enabled him to weave an external network of relations that contributed to his election as president of the African Union.

While the candidate of Madagascar Richard Randriamandrato a withdrew from the electoral battle in favor of the candidates of Djibouti and Kenya, due to his inability to keep pace with the competitive race, and in the end, the voices of his supporters moved in favor of the Djibouti candidate, which imposed on the Kenya candidate not to compete in the sixth round that Mr. Mahmoud Ali Youssef fought alone.

There are six African countries whose membership in the African Union has been frozen, against the backdrop of the military coups in which they took place, which are Sudan, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, the majority of which are Francophone countries and some are fighting a political struggle with France, against the background of their liberation from their grip. Political and economic in recent years.

The custom in the context of the African Union requires that the presidency be recycled between geographical groups ranging from north, west, south, east, and central Africa, and that one of these groups competes with each other to assume the position.
Regarding the current session, East African countries, which were very immersed in the report of the future of the position, are Madagascar, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, and Ethiopia, while Sudan's membership has been frozen.

It seems that Tanzania had abdicated months away from candidacy for Kenya, while Somalia, in turn, had abdicated his candidacy for Djibouti, while Madagascar was involved in the presidential candidacy race effectively and was one of the three countries that fought the competition.

Djibouti went to obtain the support of two geographical blocs in Africa, one of which is the Arab countries located on the continent, and the second group ranges between the African Francophone countries, which represents Djibouti, including the bloc of countries located in the southern region of Africa, as these blocs are combined as influencing forces within the framework of the organization Regionalism African.

While Algerian diplomacy Salma Malika Haddadi held the position of Vice -President of the African Commission, which resulted in two states of members of the League of Arab States - to the African Union - which will serve Arab issues and joint rapprochement between the two parties, during the next perspective.

In turn, the reality of political and military conflicts on the continent had a role in the results of the vote, as a group of countries led by South Africa worked by contributing to the overthrow of the Kenyan candidate, against the background of that his country supported Rwanda's position in the context of its conflict with the Congo.

While Ethiopia stood strongly to support the Kenyan candidate, Raila Odinga, in order to hinder Djibouti's candidate Mahmoud Ali Youssef, although there are great common interests between the two countries, whether economic, security, political and a common geographical neighborhood, instead that the Afriya nationalism and which Mr. Youssef and the resident of Djibouti and Eritrea belong , The majority The overwhelming of it is in Ethiopia.

Djibouti had made a settlement offer through an initiative presented by its Foreign Minister, Mr. Mahmoud Youssef, and ruled that it would be granted the port of Tajura as an investment port for Ethiopia, in order to defuse its political crisis with Somalia,
This is after the issuance of Addis Ababa's statements to undermine the sovereignty of this country, but the latter implicitly rejected the Djiboutian initiative and did not comment on it, which confirmed that it seeks to reach the marine military arrival to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

A political tension was also made between Djibouti and Edis Ababa during the past weeks after the Djibouti Air Force bombed groups of the Afriya opposition within the Ethiopian border, which hit armed militias and a number of civilians, in light of the Afar opposition taking the Ethiopian lands as a starting base to attack Djibouti.

Ahmed Riyalay, a political and economic analyst for African affairs, mentioned the Karamara TV network
“Somalia voted in favor of Djibouti in the competition and previously withdrew his candidate, Mrs. Fawzia Youssef Haji Adam, who previously worked as an external minister, against the background of her political sympathy for the separatist Canton in Somalia, from which she descends.” (1)

However, it is likely that this is not a direct cause of the Somali position on its previous candidate, because Mogadishu was not originally obligated to adopt its nomination, while the direct reason is that the reality of solidarity between Mogadishu and Djibouti to face external accounts, and its previous mobilization to support the separatist canton did not prevent it from appointing it As an external minister of Somalia formerly.

The African Union has a major role in the process of Somali affairs, in light of the presence of its forces there and its great impact on the political and security files of this country, when the support of a Djibouti candidate by Mogadishu came to find an external party that understands the interests of Somalia, especially in light of the existence of firm relations between them, and in the shadow of participation Welcome to the Djiboutian forces located inSomalia is under the framework of African peacekeeping forces.

Somalia is in his interest the loss of Kenyan politician Udinga, as he is a targeted figure for the unity and sovereignty of Somalia, due to his sympathy for the separation project in Hargeisa, and of course this matter is a direct reason for Somalia's support for its Djibouti neighbor in his efforts to head the African Union, especially since the indicators issued by Kenya and its candidate are hostile.

Initially, Djibouti won the African House terrace, dependent on him to support stability in Africa in general, and in particular in the Horn of Africa, especially since it also presides over the organization of creation, and therefore bearing its responsibility will come in light of a consistent context on the various regional paths that they lead, and in the reality of economic challenges And political and security List in Africa, including cases of political instability in its direct vicinity in Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Republic of Sudan.

In isolation from the conflicts and these African regional blocs, the President of the African Union Commission falls upon him many responsibilities related to the stability and future of the continent, and the nature of relations between its countries by returning to the African Union Charter, and that amount of tasks represents a major challenge for the commission and its president during the forefront.

In this context, the dissatisfaction issued by the Chairman of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssef, came several days after he assumed the position, regarding Kenya's policy towards Sudan and the blatant Nairobi intervened in order to destabilize this country, when the Sudanese opposition was hosted and supported, which declared a parallel government, which represents As an indicator of Kenya's endeavor to undermine Sudan's unity and sovereignty and destabilizing its stability and security.
And the follower of the positions of the former Djibouti Foreign Minister, realizes his standing alongside Arab issues, including the Palestinian issue, and there is no doubt that it will be issued to the African House, he will represent as a fair pillar of Arab issues, including the conflict over the Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Ethiopia.

He also relies on him to help find a political settlement between his country, Djibouti, and its neighbor, Aritrea, regarding the lands they are fighting, and his previous position gives him wide knowledge of hot files in the Horn of Africa and Africa in general, while the unreasonable member states of the African Union with their financial dues is greaterA challenge facing his work.

By Khalid Hassan Yusuf

1- Source: Ahmed Riyalay, a political and economic analyst for African affairs, published 15 feb 2025, a meeting with Karamara TV.

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