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Articles and Analysies Last Updated: Dec 20, 2009 - 3:34:53 PM

Unilateral Declaration of South Sudan Independence Has Tough Consequences But…. By Dr. James Okuk

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Unilateral Declaration of South Sudan Independence Has Tough Consequences But….  

By Dr. James Okuk  

Yes, when it comes to Secession and Independence of South Sudan, I will stand behind and beside Hon. Pagan Amum and whoever desires to achieve this long-awaited goal and help them carry that heavy cross to the destined victory. This has been my stance and it will always remain my ground without any compromise or ambiguity. If the end justifies the means then be it. Yes to the fair Independence of South Sudan!!! No to the unjust unity!!!

How I wait passionately to see that “Greatest Day In My Life”: Independence, Freedom and Dignity to the People of My Very Motherland!!! Thanks a lot to Mr. Pagan Amum for coming up openly to join the die-hard separatists and abandon his declared vote for unity of the fragile Sudan. But I hope he is sincere with the new declaration of change of heart. I hope it is not out of mere frustration and fear of lost of 2010 elections!!! I hope it is not an image-saving tactic for the criticized SPLM’s undeliverable leadership!!! I hope it is not a fuel for starting a new war and creating unavoidable enemy and scape-goating for SPLM leadership failures!!! Mr. Pagan remains my brother even when he deviates at times from the interest of the South in order to please some Northerners and enjoy obsession from New Sudan Vision’s Opium.  

Please SPLM-SG; be assured that you may only lose the elections to the SPLM-DC and not to the NCP. This will mean indirectly a win to the historical SPLM/A where you are unforgettable member. The SPLM-DC emerged to save the SPLM-led government in the South from the collapse out of quadruple vices (of tribalism, corruption, insecurity and incompetence) so that the desire of the people could be given a real chance to become true. So take the pill slowly and grasp the wisdom behind Hon. Kuol Manyang Juuk when he told the SPLM supporters in the USA that they should not get panic or be angry with the emergence of the SPLM-DC because it is still their twin brother, and that it is better for the disappointed SPLM members to join the SPLM-DC than the NCP or other political parties that are anti-CPA implementation.

No doubt, we will survive and live despite the interpretation of the NCP of the Referendum for our Self-determination to be making Separation of South Sudan unattractive and too difficult to get. Don’t worry, even if they make it difficult to achieve, we will work hard to make it attractive despites the mounting obstacles. We will take it by our own laborious hands and active brains because it is our fundamental right to human dignity!!!

However, since we have tried the 'War Tactics' in the past to achieve the goal of independence of South Sudan but failed to do it promptly by military victory and liberation (as we would have wished) due to sabotage of the International Community and the Arab World, and since we have accepted to try a peaceful democratic means (Referendum) as stipulated in the CPA document, I think there is no need for hurry and rush for the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) now since this will come automatically, with patience. Why?   

First of all, we have to become totally sure that the CPA has become useless and obsolete before we take the ‘war-option’ for UDI. But who will hit the last nail on the CPA coffin so that it becomes useless to value? The SPLM or the NCP? And by what convincing justification? The only justifiable justification that will make us and our gallant army (the SPLA) support the UDI is when the NCP totally renege and block the hard-earned right of Self-determination for Southerners at its ‘right time.’ And that ‘right time’ starts with process and mechanism like the Referendum Bill, which need to be enacted into Law one year before the polling dates in 2011.

Remember that when the Sudanese MPs declared unilaterally the Independence of the Sudan inside the Parliament in Omdurman prior to 1956, the Condominium Rulers (British and Egyptian) were already packing their things from the Sudan and had no time  and preparation for war. They were already warming up for Multilateral/Bilateral Declaration of Independence (M/BDI). But the case with the NIF-controlled government is totally different now because they have already learned to enjoy South Sudan oil and will resist any weaning attempt to take their mouths out of the milk-breast. They will fight back because they are not willing to pack their things and leave the South alone to determine and rule its right destiny!  

The win or loss after the polling results should be by simple majority of the legally registered Southerners for the practice of the plebiscite as it has been practice worldwide. Any negotiations beyond this simple-majority should be made very difficult by the SPLM and all the other concerned political parties and legislators who believe in the value of CPA.

Secondly, we should make sure that we have done a good homework, and have lobbied extensively for International and Regional Communities for the support of the UDI. Has this been done? When, Where and by Who? What is the feedback and is it on our interest or on the opponent interest? It should never be forgotten that it was the International Community, the Regional Community and the Arab World who have been failing the desire for South Sudan Independence since 1955. Thus, we should learn to fear ropes in the dark after we have been bitten by such snakes in the past. We should not take them for granted!

Thirdly, we should make sure that many SPLA ranks and files may not desert the cause if the war erupted as the result of the hurried and pre-time UDI.  The UDI implies so many ‘cuts-and-leave’, like use of Old Sudan Currency, Passports, Commercial Commodities, and other privileges enjoyed today by virtue of being one country. Already a good number of the SPLA personnel have become money-oriented, money-lovers, and luxury-enjoyers. Hence it shall be difficult for them to fight gallantly without cash-pay as it used to be the case in the past. They may become cowards as they see death a head that will make them leave behind the wealth and properties they have accumulated in the country or abroad. They may run to where their properties and happy families are, leaving the poor and property-less ones behind under the smokes of bullets and missiles from the sky. Those of ‘Dr.’ Salva Kiir, Dr. Riek Machar, Mr. Wani Igga, Mr. Pagan Amum and other top SPLM/SPLA leaders shall be sending commands and directives from safer places (e.g., well-conditioned hotels abroad) to their Military Units.

Once these poor soldiers realized that they have been left alone in the hot and deadly defensive war front lines, they may also opt to desert and run away to become internally displaced or refugees in secure places inside the Sudan and in the neighboring countries. They shall be received by UNHCR and emergency NGOs in those places. While this is happening, the UN Security Council shall be wasting time and dragging its feet to come up with a tough Resolution to put peace-keeping forces between the South and North. Also Obama may hesitate to send USA Marines to the South because he shall break his promise of pleasing the Arab World. So the Southerners would have to sweat, bleed, wield and die for their own cause without any quick help from outside. The war business companies and agents shall be very happy.  

Nonetheless, other Southerners shall not fold their hands and allow the unionists to invade their beloved Motherland and burry the aspirations of the people for Secession and Independence. The SPLM-DC shall also be forced to be there on the defense of the beloved South (if invaded by Northerners). Majority of Southerners shall turn up courageously to defend their unbeatable cause if pushed on the wall by untimely UDI and by invasive force from government in Khartoum. I hate war and killings of human beings but if pushed hard against my will, I will not hesitate to step in front and fight for my right.

Please God we know you are there and will be with us always! We also know that our ancestors and living-dead and blood of heroes and martyrs of freedom will be on our door steps and deep inside our courageous hearts to save us from the devils of oppressions and enemies of human freedom! We shall not perish but we shall thrive with thrilling!  

Dr. James Okuk is a Die-hard Democratic Separatist. He has been recently awarded with PhD qualification in the University of Nairobi. [email protected]  

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