Articles and Analysies
SPLA gearing up for the next war? BY: Urbano Tito Tipo, SUDAN
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Jul 2, 2009 - 5:02:21 AM

SPLA gearing up for the next war?

BY: Urbano Tito Tipo, SUDAN


The SPLM need not to be static but dynamic in order to keep evolving with political changes in the country. It is worth noting the only signatories to CPA are SPLM and NCP. The bulk of Sudanese masses were not involved. Should one the parties violate this agreement then we will go back to square one.

We just heard what First Vice President and President of South Sudan said in the speech in the SSLA that if NCP continues to undermine the south then SPLA is ready to fight. It is now clear to every body that south is ready for next war if certain obligations are not met by GONU such as oil distribution, Abyei issue or border demarcation.

In the last few months SPLM leadership has been in loggerheads with NCP when the former is trading accusation one side that they are being undermined. There is no clear response from NCP except when the Speaker of National Assembly accused FM that he boycotted the parliament session. The relationship between the two partners of the agreement is warring out and has become thin to the worry that the holding thread might break up. They have gone to Washington to patch up their differences

SPLM started as a Marxist organization which very much depends on dictatorship as a means of carrying guerilla warfare. It is not clear when did SPLM shift from Marxist theories and become democratic (refer to SPLM Manifesto). The last 2nd Convention was about securing positions and maintaining them rather than working out policies on how south should be ruled before and after the referendum.

Over 90% of SPLM supporters are illiterate and the support is based on ethnicity rather than policies. These policies are still driven by a small Marxist clique in SPLM who makes their voice to be heard and win support blindly as the saying goes, 'in the country of the blind, the one eyed person is the king.'

Southerners should learn from Yemen Republic. This county was once known as North and South Yemen. The North Islamic/Capitalist and South was Marxist. The two parts were united briefly but the policies/aims could not merge. South decided to unilaterally break away. As a result, war erupted and South was eventually defeated and now there is only one Yemen Republic governed by Islamic principles. The fate of the South Sudan by declaring war now will be definitely like Yemen.

SPLA is not yet a conventional army. It is based on tribal allegiance, poorly equipped and the source of weapons is the Black market unlike the North which has a conventional army, military hard-ware company-GIAD and enough supply of arms from Islamic Countries and through bilateral agreements with Russia and China.

What is not clear is how the war will be fought this time around? Will it be a guerilla warfare or a conventional war? It is an open secret that the arms that were highjacked by Somali pirates a few months ago in the Gulf of Aden belonged to SPLA. In addition, a SPLM diplomat was caught at Heathrow Airport carrying three million dollars which he confessed that the money was intended to buy arms.

Those who consider themselves intellectuals and migrated to western countries could not catch up with western intellectualism because they still behave like their folks back home by giving blind support to SPLM again based on ethnicity already mentioned above. They are suffering from generation gap syndrome.

These kinds of intellectuals do not need change because their eating of public funds will be affected or stopped. Their folks back home are driving luxurious cars costing 300,000 to 500,000 US$ called in Dinka as "Meth Apoyl," (children are OK) and Athain (Former GoSS Finance Minister). The SPLM leadership is angry because their pockets are getting empty and nothing to loot. The North has screwed the funds which are no longer flowing to the south.

Southern Sudanese need democratic change to avoid eventual collapse and avert going back to war. Thus, when Dr. Lam Akol declared SPLM-DC he had actually foreseen the south drifting back to war. He has a vision, principles and way forward from the mess SPLM has created in the last five years. These facts that need to be told no matter how bitter they are to swallow. Democratic change has to be accepted if we are to remain united as Southern Sudanese Nationalists.

One is not blasting those who are critical about SPLM-DC formation. They are free to voice their opinions either attacking the personality of Dr. Lam or otherwise. Dr Lam is an intellectual and profound politician driven by his vision. Our late leader Dr. John Garang was an intellectual, politician and military person. His wisdom maintained SPLM/SPLA for twenty-years and led it to successful conclusion of CPA. Mr. Bona Malual, although differs with SPLM, is an intellectual, renown politician and South Sudanese Nationalist who never deviated from his vision ever since and contributed positively to the Sudanese politics.

We all know the performance of SPLM leadership in the last five years. Southerners are suffering from avoidable diseases, hunger and insecurity. Nothing has been done to address these issues.

Instead, a beer factory is being built in Juba and is called development! The leadership has embarked on forceful disarmament of civilians which implies more civilians will loose their lives.

Because GONU has lost trust in the leadership, they come in themselves to build model villages in Jonglie and Warrap States which is a big shame to the leadership in the south. What equation will this bring in the coming elections?

The leadership has on a political journey to South Kordofan State where Deputy SPLM leader declared that SPLM stands for unity of Sudan while in the South he was for separation. Who are they trying to fool? It shows SPLM lacks direction and political principles and norms.

Our leader is now calling for war if forced to. It could have been better if SPLM were to engage NCP in positive dialogue. However the changes are slim given the statements released by the Secretary-General in recent months accusing NCP of giving arms which were found on food convoy in Nasir.

If we are going to war, please let us know in advance when so that we seek asylum in China this time around for our children in a better environment and schooling. This blind and illiterate population will not realize the dangers of war.

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