Be Careful: Junub al
May End up with Autonomy
In most recent civil wars of self-determination, fighting usually began with demands for secularism and or complete independence but ended with de facto autonomy within the state. There are many reasons why Junubin (Southerners) all should be worried that SPLM leadership might be willing to settle for less at 11 hours especially when other powerful states such as the U.S., UK and international organization/and or regional bodies encouraging them to negotiate and, in this case, I have no doubt that Omar al Bashkir will cooperate and do everything possible if pressured by the Arab league nations even if it means letting Kiir be president of Sudan for a calculated given period of time.
Anya-nya rebellion in
, Turareg rebels and the governments of
in the mid-1990s are good case studies. Nationalists willing to fighting for total independence like the rebel leaders in
are rare. Differently put, if the majority powerless separatist personal interests within the SPLM say for example being accommodated, I beg some of them will easily switch sides for unity.
This leads to my greater concerns-as I‚Äôm getting a bit nervous and confused by Kiir's inconsistent messages to different audiences these days. During his recent three days visit to Cairo, Egypt, an insider to the meeting was quoted saying: ‚Äú
‚Ä¶the SPLM/A leader is willing to "help give unity a chance" in return for what he qualifies as more commitment to the requirements of peace and unity.‚ÄĚ
Frankly speaking, am worried and still hope Kiir meant what he said in to the congregation last weekend Kator (urged Junubin to vote for independence in the 2011 referendum)
Conversely, President Kiir should read history and try to recall that John Kerry lost election to Bush in 2004 U.S. Presidential race for being flip-flopper and not strong enough to compensate for the mistakes made by his campaign. As the referendum days are drawing closer day by day, hour-by-hour and minutes-by-minutes, Kiir should be more consistent and assertive on his message regarding the question of separation as oppose to unity talks no matter what audiences is he addressing and where. Instead, he should stop sending different conflicting signals altogether to Junubin audience at this critical moment in time. There is no enough Time left for politicking and political gimmicking, per se.
So, I‚Äôd carefully cautions Junubin from celebrating prematurely for it is well known facts that minorities rights or rather self-determination is hardly assured by the nation states including the UN-because what matter in international politics is national interest, period. In case some of you have forgotten, let me refresh your minds, that the brutality of the conflicts in
and Kosovo to mention a few were committed on the watch of international community and the UN.
This then means we Junubin should not sit back, relax and entrust our future wholly to the international community, the UN and some inconsistent SPLM leaders/and or other seasonal Junubin politicians to decide for us our destiny, for they can easily be persuaded and manipulated or pressured by international community or powerful international organizations/and or regional bodies with vested interest in Sudan to give in separation for unity.
To bring my message home i.e. we urgently need attitude change among Junubin to effectively start participating fully in day-to-day
politics rather than wait and see usual ineffective approach. To start campaigning for 2011 referendum at 11 hours might be too costly, too little and too late, and the ends result might be disastrous, God‚Äôs forbid.
Certainly, this final finishing crossing line requires energy, dedication, commitment, courage and determination to rise to challenge and reach the last destination. You, I and all of us cannot afford to loss on this furious hard race, brothers and sisters. Let us do it, and yes we can!