Abyei Ruling must educate SPLM on future implications of CPA and the Referendum
BY: Nelson Makoi,
Analysis and perspectives:
There are a number of issues that need to be addressed ahead of 2011 referendum and it seems SPLM looks emasculated loosing its strength and giving up to take a weak position based on arguments. The NCP has turned CPA around on some contentious issues like the fate of Abyei Boundaries, North-South border demarcations and power and wealth sharing affected by the disputed census results. Indeed, conflicts are still arising despite Abyei ruling on its boundaries.
The issue of referendum law yet continues in stalemate as NCP side is requiring a percentage 'yes' vote for separation of 75%, a move rejected by the SPLM as this percentage doesn't even exist in any model constitution in this democratic world or even in any national presidential elections. It cannot go beyond 50% plus one or a simple majority.
The NCP depredation plan trying to manipulate CPA milestone principles of right to self-determination of the people of
and popular consultation for
will not be tolerated by compromising the referendum bill which will risk people to a fake a united
The natural resources
The issue of Bamboo - Higlige Oil fields remains high on the agenda and indeed there will be a probability of war although Salva Kiir rules out of going back to war. The southerners may be dictated by the situation which will be generated or increased due to frustration from NCP as they are still yet not resolved on the controversial issues in the CPA ahead of 2010 elections and 2011 referendum.
As a matter of concern, the SPLM leadership stance and their ability to resolve sensitive issues in the CPA after the death of late Dr. John Garang is questionable, because first and for most, the question is  why SPLM included Heglig oil filed as part of Abyei Boundaries Commission in the first place and allow it to go to The Hague?
 Why SPLM defended their argument before the court that Heglige is part of Dinka Ngok land?
This could have been corrected from day one in the ABC expert map drawn in 2005 report and make it clearly and put it separately to assure them that Heglige is part of
. Now we have understood the court ruling excluded oil rich area of Heglige, and SPLM again surprisingly placed Heglige as part of
again which will be delaying tactics to NCP by complicating the matter without accepting the fact and pull the rope to use it as opportunity to push time of referendum schedule on
9th Jan, 2011
The issue of Census
In fact, the SPLM has shrinked in the hands of NCP sabotage in the implementation of CPA protocols, first was the census issue which was lost by the SPLM and the rejection of census results will not help the South at this particular juncture because south will carrybout it own population census once it achieved independent as we may know very well there are some African Countries with less population than the 8.2 million in the South. Second is the Abyei arbitration ruling that SPLM lost the key oil areas due to poor political strategic planning and the third is upcoming elections which seems SPLM is going to lose the elections results if they are not serious due to poor arrangement and delay of the SPLM candidate for the national presidency among others.
I am a die-hard member of SPLM as a liberation movement and we needs to criticize the internal democratic process and system to improve the party integrity as well as their performance to prevent many factions.
In my personal view, I want to assure and prove those who claimed that southern
capacity is weak and not qualified for independence because of less population, weak leadership and will be a failed state; all are malicious and fabricated. Take example of
with 5 million people and
with 3.9 million people and
with 1.4 million people. These are less populous countries in
and their sovereignty exists as recognized independent states.
The issue of leadership in the south can improve with generation as GOSS is now working hard to improve quality education of it cadres and national leaders in the future independent South Sudan.
The security situation in Southern Sudan
The tribal conflicts that exist in
are being fueled by poverty and socio-economic status which left a huge gap behind during the civil war in
and now it's being increased by the corrupt politicians who have surrounded themselves with tribesmen as defense to acquire power in the government positions.
However, these people are compete on the scarcity of resources which is concentrated in the hands of few individuals who have participated in the liberation struggle and now the issue remain along the tribal lines as the groups hate each other, for instance, Equartorians hate Dinka, likewise for Nuer similarly to other smaller tribes in the south, because of wealth and political leadership. The politicians have a hand in tribal conflicts with dirty politics of disunity and that will not be used as as advantage for those elements who are working against the South independence.
The SPLM should accept their weakness on this matter of failing to contain the situation in the south. The unstable peace of Sudan where suspicion and tension remain high from both parties everyday also need to alert international community to put attention and to take necessary steps and engage in the diplomacy of prevention before things go from bad to worse due to the influence from NCP government having hands in destabilizing the South for political and economic reasons and acts of evil in regards to CPA implementation.