The future of the South Sudan
On January 9th, 2005, the Sudan Peopleís Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) and the Khartoum regime (NIF) signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Kenya, after twenty three years of Sudanís second civil war; one which took over two millions lives and internally displaced more than six million people. The civil war in the
is one of the
ís longest, bloodiest and most inflexible conflicts.
Civil wars have been fought in
These were expressions of oppressed or excluded groups fighting their way from the periphery into power at the center to free themselves from oppressive rule by those who had been controlling the center.
, power sharing has been absent with regards to the separation of religion from the state, sharing of the natural resources, equality and justice among the Sudanese people.
Despite that the CPA, power is still centralised in
; a point of tension and conflict is the identity of
as an African nation.
Despite its geographic location in the Continent and majority African population, the majority of power is held by 39% of its population who are Arabs. These are the main reasons behind the first and the second civil wars in 1950s, 1960s, and 1983s. Oil, Slavery and war against terrorism have placed the
, FBI and international communityís scrutiny, particularly with discovery of oil in the
in 1979. The
regime gave Osama Bin-Laden save haven in the
, and Bin Laden planned September 11th in
with the support of
regime and its officials.
In the four years since the SPLA/M assumed power in the
, the security situation has not seen significant improvement.
The Lordís Resistance Armyís (LRA) military activities are still active in Central and
The Government of the South Sudan (GoSS) has failed to protect its citizens, and has been unable to disarm the Dinka tribesmen who continue to terrorize Central, Eastern, and Western Equatorial civilians in Magwi County, Nimule, Yei, Yambio, and other part of Great Equatorial; furthermore, the Dinka tribesmen deliberately allowed their cattles to grazed on the great Equatorial farming land.
The people of
are divided by power as well.
Most of the GOSS cabinet, deputies ministers, attorney generals, as well as the senior officers in the police force, prisons, military, civil and foreign service are from the Dinka tribe, including founder of the SPLA/M and the president of the South Sudan. Dinkas in the SPLA constitute the largest portion of the military personnelís within the movement. The Dinka are able to use their domination to suppress other Southern Sudanese tribes instead or share the power with them just as like Arabs did before 2005.
The Dinkas plan appear to be gain control over the natural resources of South, to rule over the rest of the South, kill, and imprison anyone or group who opposes the ill-conceived notion of ďDinka Born to RuleĒ.
The classic example is the appointment of hard-line proponent of Dinkas nationalism Able Alier as a Ďborn to rule advisorí to Salva Kiri Mayardit, for the purposes of implementing the policy of Dinkas domination over others tribes.
Since the beginning of 2009, Eastern & Central Equatorial civilians have been killed, the Great Equatorial girls and Women have suffered rape.
The SPLA high officials have been appropriating Central & Eastern Equatorial lands and selling them to Somalian businessmen - leaving the land owners homeless and displaced. The culture of corruption is rampant with development money leaving
and end up in the foreign accounts in
, the U.S.A,
The pattern of events is symptomatic of the lack of good governance and leadership within the SPLA/M. The GoSS has failed in educating the public in the importance of the democracy, fair elections, good governance whose components include accountability, legitimacy, democracy, equality, inclusiveness, transparency, coherency (conflict resolution), effectiveness and efficiency, and rule of law. The SPLA/M under the Dinkas regime have practiced democratic tribalism to gain greater power, rather than serve all of
through good governance. The international community and the donor states must intervene before it is too late.
With regards to the future of
and the referendum on sovereignty of the South; there appear to be two possible lines of development. One possibility is that the Dinkasí partnership and cooperation of the NIF confers authority and power with the Dinkas to rule the South.
The second possibility is that the bid to block the referendum in South succeeds, and the South remains part with the North. However, indications on the ground suggest that the referendum will take place but is not likely to be fair.
In this case, civil war is likely to be the outcome.
What could be done to rescue the situation in the
? Donor states must put pressure on the SPLA leadership to implement their commitments to good governance and full representation of all
tribes in the GoSS;
The European Union (EU), the International Criminal Court (ICC), the human rights organizations, the US State department, and the United Nations human right commission, must form a South Sudan-Fact Finding Mission Human Rights Committee to investigate the crimes committed against the great Equatorial citizens;
The rights of the victims must be protected, and those committing crimes against humanity be brought to justice. All the lands taken by force from the great Equatorial must be giving back to their owners.
ďThe racial theory brought Hitler and his friends to conclusion that the Germans as the only fully valuable nation, must rule over other nations. The English, racial theory brings ChurchHill and his friends to the conclusion that nations speaking the English language, being the only fully valuable nations, should rule over the remaining nations of the worldĒ. The same theory brought
Salva Kiir Mayardit and his friends to conclusion that people speaking Dinka language are the
only people worthy to rule over the remaining of the South Sudan.
Donor states and the international community at large must take these recommendations seriously.
needs an understanding and realization of the Baganda concept of edbemde eryíobuntu - the democracy of freedom for a community and its individual members to be treated in a humane and civil manner? This would include freedom from severe political or social disorder, freedom for ordinary individuals to have their complaints and opinions heard by those in power, and fair and equal treatment by authorities. Equality of treatment is paradoxically based on the disorder and injustice produce by inequality.