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Articles and Analysies Last Updated: Oct 27, 2009 - 9:33:43 PM

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRE AND POST ELECTIONS PERIOD IN THE SUDAN By: David De Dau
Sudaneseonline.com

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CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRE AND POST ELECTIONS PERIOD IN THE SUDAN

 

By: David De Dau

 

Email: [email protected]

 

Introduction and background

 

David De Dau
The root causes of the Sudans problems have always centers around resources allocation, power sharing, religious bias and lack of equal and fair treatment for all the citizens of the Sudan.

 

The Sudans violent conflicts which have existed for more than five decades could be best traced to the time of the non-African intervention into the Sudan in early 1400s.   These non-Africans came as petty traders by which they took the name jallaba meaning petty traders of salts and other small commodities which were then not available to the African indigenous Sudanese.

 

The petty traders came into Sudan ( Sudan means the land of the black) one by one and they then started owning lands. They intermarried with the local indigenous Africans of who mostly were from the Nubia and Mer kingdoms.

 

 During the years since the immigration of these salt traders commonly called in the contemporary history as Arabs, wars and disasters have never ceased.

 

The famous historical 1947 Juba conference was simply an extension of the preceding wars between the Arabs and the indigenous Africans mostly southern Sudanese who had resisted conversion into Islam and Arab culture by force.

 

Studying critically as to why southern Sudanese paramount chiefs requested to be part of the east African community at the Juba conference, the southern Sudanese felt those historical injustices that were imposed on them by the then British government and the Egyptians in supporting the Arab north to butcher southerners and forced them into Islam was not going to end easily even if they live in one country.

 

The South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM) commonly called Anyanya one was an extension of the violation of the rights of the people of southern Sudan as expressed at the Juba conference.

 

The failure of the Addis Ababa Agreement which brought to an end a seventeen years war resulted into a more than two decades civil wars in the Sudan between the majority southern Sudanese dominant Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement and Army (SPLM/A) under colonel John Garang and the oppressive regime led by the Khartoum preceding governments which has existed for more than a century.

 

 

 

 

 

 The Comprehensive Peace Agreement

 

The negotiation and the signature of the comprehensive peace Agreement (CPA) came at a time when both parties had reach amok! It is important to note that both parties were tired of fighting each other and yet the two had no trust of each other. The CPA is to help the Sudanese cultivate the virtue of trust amongst them.

 

The implementation of the CPA proved an uphill task for the people of Sudan and particularly to the people of southern Sudan. The wealth sharing protocol became a nightmare to implement it since there is no transparency in the allocation of resources which is one of the core causes of the conflict in the Sudan. The power sharing protocol also proved difficult and the SPLM counter part National Congress Party decided to take both the ministry of energy and mining as well as the ministry of finance.

 

The security arrangement has not been fully implemented! The redeployment of forces from both sides has been very slow. The Sudan armed forces (SAF) have not completely withdrawn from southern Sudan and especially from Western Bahr el Ghazel, Northern Bahr el Ghazel, Unity and Upper Nile states. SAF is still arming their former soldiers in Juba and other areas in the South preparing them for possibly another civil war!

 

The CPA has had three bench marks in its implementation. The three are the census which was conducted last April of 2008, the elections of which we are within the elections periods and the final bench mark is the referendum for the people of southern Sudan to determine their future by either voting for an independent South Sudan or confirm the unity of the Sudan, that is if southern Sudanese are fully convinced that the Arab north that fought bitter wars with them are trust worthy people to live with.

 

But the questions will be: have the Arabs of Sudan changed their attitudes towards indigenous African Sudanese? Do they see Southerners as people whom they can live in the same country without religious prejudices? Have the Arabs accept that fact that all people are equal before the law? Will they abandon sharia law and implement circular law? Will Khartoum be free from being sharia law infested city? How shall we live in a country where people have divided interest and way of life? Will the trust that the Arabs will not backslide the South to square zero be there? And finally, under such conditions will southern Sudanese confirm unity of the Sudan where they will be slaves instead of being free citizens? The decision of a united Sudan is an absolute choice of an individual! Referendum is a choice between freedom and slavery! A choice between liberty and forever captivity!

 

Elections in the Sudan

Having read about the biter history of the Sudan between northerners and southerners and between Islam and other religious groups, it is worth noticing that people of southern Sudan should look at the forth coming elections as a unifying factor rather than a divisive tool.

 

These forthcoming coming elections will be a test for southerners to see whether they could accept each other or not. It will test the degree of tribalism and corruption in the South.

 

You may not like this analysis but this is the reality of the matter and the truth about the CPA, the elections and possibly the referendum. Lets look at how these elections will change the dimensional facets of the South! How it will affect the South and why southerners should look at the common good of all.

 

I will focus on the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) since it is the dominant party in southern Sudan. The roles of the other political parties are very important in these elections. In my analysis, whether we like it or not some leaders whom southerners might have never expected to lead them will lead them this time. Either by default or by fault, it must be accepted that Dr. Riek Machar may be the president of the government of southern Sudan and this automatically enthroned him the commander in chief of the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) according to the interim constitution of the government of southern Sudan, 2005. James Wani Igga definitely becomes the vice president of the government of southern Sudan. The speaker of the southern Sudan Legislative Assembly will depend on the choice of the legitimate members of the Assembly of southern Sudan visa vise to the elections results.

 

In the hierarchy of the SPLM, General Kiir Mayarit is the chairman of the SPLM. Dr. Riek Machar is the first vice Chairman; the second vice chairman is James Wani Igga and then followed by the third vice chairman, Mr. Malik Agar of Southern Blue Nile.

 

Since we are concentrating on the effect of the election on southern Sudan, we shall circle between Salva Kiir, Riek Machar and Wani Igga!

 

Elections for the position of the President of the Republic of Sudan

According to the Sudan National election Act, 2008, each and every political party shall nominate a candidate for this position. Please note there shall be no political party to nominate one candidate for two positions. In other words, SPLM like any other political party shall not nominate lets say Kiir to vie for the seat of the president of the republic and the position of the president of the government of southern Sudan. Kiir will have to vie for one seat and not both!

 

If Kiir goes to vie for the National seat of the republic of Sudan, then he shall surrender to someone else to vie for the seat of the president of the government of southern Sudan.

 

Lets say if Kiir wins the top seat of the republic then his first vice president will come from the North and the second vice president will come from the South. That is, the second vice president of the republic will be the president of the government of southern Sudan. Following the SPLM hierarchy, Dr. Machar becomes the president of the government of southern Sudan and the second vice president of the republic of Sudan.

 

If Kiir wins the elections, the Sudan shall be in union for a period of three years before the referendum is conducted. If the referendum takes place and the people of southern Sudan vote for the unity of the Sudan, then president Kiir will remain the president of the republic of Sudan and if southerners decide otherwise, the government of National Unity of which Kiir is the president would be amicably dissolved and Kiir still goes home since the seat in the South is occupied by a president who was peoples elected.

 

If the opposite occurs that Kiir doesnt make it for the National seat, while the seat of the president of the government of southern Sudan is occupied by Machar, then Kiir goes home straight a way because he will have no seat in the South as a president but may become either the leader of the opposition parties in the North or become a backbencher in the National Assembly. In this case, the elected president of the republic who comes from the north will appoint Dr. Riek Machar as the first vice president of the republic and the president of the government of southern Sudan. The second vice president will automatically come from the North!

 

If to avoid the embarrassment of Kiir losing elections at the National level and to keep him for the president of the government of southern Sudan, whoever the SPLM will nominate for the top seat elections must by legal procedures become the chairman or chairperson of the SPLM meaning Kiir will have to first hand over the chairmanship of the party to whoever is nominated in order to vie for that seat with a full mandate of the SPLM as the chair, the commander in chief of SPLA and president of GOSS. Once these legal procedures are met, then the new SPLM chair goes to vie for the top seat of the republic and then Kiir remains the second candidate for the position for the president of the government of southern Sudan. In this case, Kiir would have been saved from the possible double lose of both elections at the National and regional level of southern Sudan.

 

Elections for the position of the president of the government of southern Sudan

 

If to follow the SPLM hierarchy, if Kiir goes for the top seat, then Machar automatically become the second nominee of the SPLM for the post of the president of the government of southern Sudan. Either again by default or by fault because of the popularity of the SPLM in southern Sudan, Dr. Machar automatically becomes the president of the government of southern Sudan.

 

As a matter of fact in the hierarchy, Machar shall appoint James Wani Igga as the vice president of the government of southern Sudan. The rest of the positions in the government of southern Sudan and the state government will be determined with the elections results.

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusion and recommendations

This analysis is not telling the people of southern Sudan as to who would win or lose the elections but to show the possibilities of these forthcoming elections in 2009. Its up to the people of southern Sudan to decide either to follow leaders based on their tribal affiliations or search for peace despite whoever comes to power!

 

The elections must be faced by southerners after they have made a clear choice of what exactly they need out the long devastating struggle for peace and freedom for all. The price of freedom is always paid with human blood and heads but the maintenance of peace is eternal vigilance.


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  • An open letter to Hassan Abdullah Turabi By: Brian Adeba,
  • The big lie by Ismail Abdallah M.
  • JEMs Vision for a New Sudan by Dr El-tahir Adam El-faki
  • Reframing the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett
  • Confederation for Southern Sudan a Betrayal to Self-determination By James Okuk
  • President Kiir should admit his failure and resign gracefully by Jor Deng
  • Kiir must be indicted for war crimes BY Atem Mabior
  • Kiir shows his real colours By Atem Mabior
  • Will UN Envoy Eliason Do His Homework on Darfur? By Dr. El-tahir Adam El-faki
  • SALVA KIIR BETRAYS THE SOUTHERN CAUSE by Atem Mabior
  • Critical Analysis on the paper presented by Presidential Advisor, Mr Bona Malwal under the title The Future of the CPA under the Current Political Crises`.
  • Sudan needs reality check By Hassan Ibrahim
  • The Hypocrisy of NCP Supporters on Darfur By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Polemics of Politics of Transitions in Sudan By John G Nyuot Yoh*
  • SPLM: A Party that Deserves Building not Ruining By James Okuk
  • The Paradox of Political Transformation by SPLM Standards. By; Baraj Ayuen
  • Fanatic Islamic Iran & Exploitive Transnational Capitalism are the Most harmful Sources of insecurity in the World
  • A PRAYER IN EACH CORNER by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • Movement erosion Bneha .... Conflict adults ousts Emin Tela t by Shol Goba
  • Northern Sudanese and Bashirs Call for Jihad Time for Southerners to Think Aloud Lily A. Akol
  • Sudanese & American Friends March for Peace and Reconciliation By Jimmy Mulla
  • The Dilemma of The SPLM: Is it justified? By: Ngino Nikako
  • The 4th General Congress of the Justice & Equality Movement (JEM) By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • If Sudan Want Peace it has to Prepare for War? * By James Okuk
  • Yet Another Africans Challenge: Liability No. 21 the IQ By Dr. Mohamed N. Bushara*
  • When will Darfur mediators learn (2) By Suliman A Giddo*
  • Bravo to Mr. Salva Kiir for Rejecting the US Proposal By James Okuk Solomon
  • Female Circumcision Negligence and Abuse By Dr. Amal Ahmed Elbasheir.
  • U.S Should Upgrade the SPLA if it is willing to Help Southern Sudan *By James Okuk Solomon
  • Where Sudan Is Booming By Alexis Okeowo
  • When Will Darfur Mediators Learn? By Suliman A. Giddo*
  • Mob Emotions Is Anti-Democratic Transformation By James Okuk Solomon
  • Check with Improper Balance: SPLM Risky Politics of Partnership By James Okuk Solomon
  • Another way to break Abie deadlock by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • The SPLM & Protecting the CPA: Guarding Against the Cynical Obstructionism of NCP Parek Maduot
  • Do Ministers belong to the Party or to the Government? *By James Okuk
  • Habib Bank v Central Bank of Sudan Ismat Abdel Gadir - LL.B
  • DRIVING FAST TO EXPLODE IN THE ABYSS! By Comarde Edward Lino
  • Shilluk Communities vs Shilluk International Congress (SIC) By: Kimo Ajing Aba
  • FASTING RAMADAN IN A MONASTERY: Mohammad Ali Salih
  • It is Darfur Again and the Misery Goes On By E. Ablorh-Odjidja
  • SLM request to delay Libya talks by Tag Elkhazin,
  • THE HONOURABLE WISE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD/Ali Mahmoud Hassanein
  • Will the united Sudan remain attractive for all under the NCP regime?! By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Value of Peace in Sudan: From Ki-Moon to International Wisemen By James Okuk Solomon
  • South Sudan Egyptians relations / John Lawrence Morbe Joseph
  • Will the Failed Abuja Diplomacy Be Repeated in Libya? By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Why a reality check is needed on Darfur by Anne Bartlett
  • United, Cairo's poor and poorer get heard
  • A Message from Ajik (Ajang) Union in North American To: Commander and Comrade Daniel Kodi by Fadul H.Haimad
  • What Happened To Gen. Kiir First Vice Presidency Position? / by Isaiah Abraham
  • Eritrea in the Sudan's president's office, By: Mohamed Osman Ibrahim
  • UN Ban Ki-Moon and his Drought Thesis of Darfur Conflict By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • UN Secretary General: Mission Impossible By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Old Habits Die Hard: The National Congress Party is Back to Its Outmoded TacticsBy: Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Greatest Marginalization of All Time/Isam Siddig
  • Darfur: A Little Less Talk, A Little More Action by Anne Bartlett
  • Muslims eye America by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • General Elections in Sudan by the Year 2009: A Fact or a Fiction?/By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Alsalkeen Charitable Organization General Secretary. /By Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Cons and Cues About The Sudanese Forthcoming General Election/Isaiah Abraham
  • Animals rights are also rights/Isaiah Abraham
  • SPLM Official Counters the Recent Remarks of the NCP Official over Abyie and Darfour Translated by MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • The Arab Congregation and the Ideology of Genocide in Darfur, Sudan By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • Catholics Led to Hell/Written by Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • Keep away from Darfour, Mustafa Osman Ismail, warns the SPLM Translated by Majok Nikodemo Arou
  • Abyei Protocol. by Mayen. D. Ater
  • Darfur Actors and the absence of Road Maps By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Judiciary Reshuffle Ineptly Calculated by Daniel Deng Monyde
  • Stop the Genocide and give the security then peace will come/Hamed Mohamedain Omer
  • THE AMERICANS AND ME (2): ISLAM Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, Asharq Alawsat
  • Unwanted in Israel By Sherine Tadros at the Egyptian-Israeli border
  • ISSUES that Rose From the Sudanese Ambassador Press Conference By Jwothab Amum Ajak
  • Al Bashir Slams on Campaigners against Sudan, Reviews Political Developments By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Was Dr. John Garang Assassinated?/Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • What had happened in Darfur?/Mahmoud E. Yousif
  • Abie conflict The Inferno of Nivasha or the Paradise of Peace by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • TEXT- Conclusions of AU-UN, Sudan on the Hybrid Operations
  • Alfashir is nearer than Kampala: JEM/NRF Commends New SPLM Stance on Darfur/By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
  • COMSARY by SALMAN OMER MAHMOUD
  • Sudan: The Politics of Naming - Genocide, Civil War, Insurgency/Prof. Mahmood Mamdani
  • US to Sanction Dr. Khalil Ibrahim! A Statement/Gammali Hasan Galal Eldin
  • Can Darfur Survive the CPA?/Abdullahi El-Tom and Mahmoud Abbaker Suleiman
  • GOD OR AMERICA: WHO IS FIRST? 8 DIFFERENT OPINIONS/Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, Asharq Alawsat
  • It would be Unwise to think that a United Sudan Properly Functions within the Main Frameworks of the Phenomenon of Eastern African Development./Urban T. Kir
  • Darfur Crisis: Mediation Failure (2)/Ahmed M. Mohamedain
  • Government of Sudan and Darfur crisis/Musa Yakub Daoud
  • President Bush "Hurts" for Darfur Darfur Is Safer than US Urban Cities/Ali Baghdadi
  • Our Vision on the prospect of peace to end the Darfur tragedy/By Dr. M.A.Suleiman
  • Lies, Damned Lies and the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett is a Director of the Darfur Centre for Human Rights and Development
  • International Media Ignore Sudanese Voices /AfricaFocus (Washington, DC)
  • Sudanese cyber rally forces website to remove controversial ad by Wasil Ali
  • why war in abyaii by bakhit mohd humaidan
  • Al Salikeen Earmarks 1.2 Billion Pounds for Service Schemes by Al Sammani Awadallah
  • A CALL TO ALL THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH SUDAN/By James Ogilo Agor Agokwech-Rochester, MN USA
  • Will the Quartet Summit Contradict with the UN, AU Role in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Sudan Vision Carries Out a Survey on Pros and Cons of Humanitarian Aid in Sudan By: Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Al Khatim Adlans legacy of wisdom and vision/ahmed elzobier
  • WHEN THEY BEG FOR UNITY by Mack Awer Riak
  • The Genocide Glitterati by Anne Bartlett
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue Will Not be Held Hostage by Hostile Armed Factions", Says Dr. Omar Adam
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains/by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum/Nour Tawir
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba_Mountains Democratic Forum by Samie A Djudo
  • RIFT KAKUMA HITS BY VALLEY FEVER. By;Mabior Mayom Mayom
  • How Dr. Garang wanted Abyei to be? (1) /By Akol Miyen Kuol
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum
  • The Doomsday Cult/Ahmed Sam, human rights activist.
  • China must emulate AU wisdom in Sudan by Simon Roughneen for ISN
  • An article introducing our country Sudan by Maha esmeal ahmed esmeal
  • It is a time for all Peace forces to take action By : Matur Aciek
  • Kiir stood to his pledge of no reverse gear/ BY MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • IT IS TIME FOR THE SPLA TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN AIR FORCE/Maker Costa
  • Unwitting Party to Genocide By Stephen Rademaker
  • SPLA, STANDS STRONG AND PROUD!/By Hakim Makuer Gol
  • January 9th- a Day of Peace and Full Independence/By Dr. Mawien Akot
  • Muslim cadet clear on identity/YVETTE CABRERA
  • 2008 General Elections: What Are The Scenarios Awaiting Us?/Maker Costa-Syracuse New York
  • s NCP is planning to rig elections at census level/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Criticism to the Global War Against International Terrorism, (G-WAIT) by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Swindles of Modern Liberal Democracy by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • Peaceful Conflict Resolution & the War on Terror The cases of Sudan and Iraq by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Jinjaweed Leader By : kuku kadia
  • UA-GSC Sudan Resolution Passes/By Marie Y. Thibault
  • All About Darfur: Is Sudan in a culture of war? By Virginie Wembey
  • AU Recommends Six Month Extension for its Mission By: Al Sammani Awadallah / IOL
  • No South/North border and ABC: CPA is dead.By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Darfur destruction is Sudans al-Bashirs Shame/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Relationship Between Economic Mismanagement & Social Instability by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter
  • Fake Modern Religions Are Fighting Faith by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Ideological Structure of The Conservative Professional Nationalist Party & System by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter,
  • 'Lost Boys of Sudan' By: Kristin Boyd , Staff Writer
  • Sudan's al-Bashir and Palace are imperfect Match By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Frank Wolf: Divest from Sudan By U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-10)
  • Sudanese Native Relates Horrors of His Childhood/By Konstantin Shishkin
  • General Congress of JEM Asserts Creation of a political Party/Professor Mahmoud Abakar Sulaiman
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and the Litany of AU Deceit in Darfur/Dr. Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
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  • Reign of Corruption and political stagnation By Andrew Bak
  • Current American Planning Strategies vs. Planning Strategies of the 50s/By: Adil Bala (PhD)*
  • Free Will, JEM Peace Wing Sign Political and Military Protocol By Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Only Favourable Humanitarian and Security Conditions are Needed in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadalla
  • A call to Abolish Sharia Law in South Sudan: GOSS must take a Lead
  • Race and colour consciousness art or is it ... Religions? Hatim Elmadani
  • Who are Landless People in Sudan? Mack Awer -Cairo
  • Darfur: Diplomacy and its Discontents by Anne Bartlett
  • Why Egypt won't press Sudan: the Nile By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
  • Pathological Delusions by Ahmed Elzobier
  • NIF is determined to kill CPA By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Darfur - Solution Must Come From Africans By Mohammed Eisa Ismail
  • The responsibility to protect Darfur By William G. O'Neill
  • Sudanese go tech savvy By Cheryl Lecesse
  • Sorrow in Sudan By Vivian Ho