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Articles and Analysies «Š’›Õ… «Šŕ—»Ū… Last Updated: Oct 27, 2009 - 9:33:43 PM

Al-Bashir Protects Sudanís Capital with Water Trenches against JEM. By Dr. El-tahir El-faki
Sudaneseonline.com

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Al-Bashir Protects Sudanís Capital  with Water Trenches against JEM.

By Dr. El-tahir El-faki

 

The political shape in Sudan is tense.   The humanitarian conditions are deteriorating and so is the security condition of the whole country.   But there is no limit to Al-Bashirís predicaments; the shadows of the ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno- Ocampo is not only looming but closing on him.  

 

Realizing the complexity of the impending arrest warrant against him, Al-Bashir is doing all he can to circumvent the proceedings by legal challenges behind closed corridors. At the same time, he is publicly denouncing the ICC and branding Ocampo as a western stooge and an infidel.   Much more recently, Al-Bashir has turned to use the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for the purpose.   Using the CPA mandatory election, Al-Bashir hopes to gain legitimacy but more important immunity against the possible ICC prosecution. By holding ďelectionsĒ, Al-Bashir hopes to secure legitimacy, continues as President and claim immunity for as long as he could. He already stated that the coming elections in 2009, and which he will win by all means, will vindicate him and proves his innocence. Staying as President of Sudan, the international community will throw itself into protracted period of political and legal wrangling and scenarios.

 

Four scenarios await Al-Bashir now. The first is that he will be indicted but remains on the run.   The second is that he indictment gets issued secretly with him being captured either by UNAMID forces or in a visit abroad.   The third scenario is that Al-Bashir will be overthrown by the Sudanese army or national Security.   The final scenario for Al-Bashir is to go free, following rejection of Ocampoís case.

 

 

Each scenario has grave repercussions at the political, humanitarian and security situations in Darfur and the whole of Sudan. The international community is at the moment bracing itself for the arrest warrant and would not be deterred by Al-Bashirís wailings. In all, if UN Security Council invoked article 16 and deferred the indictment, Al-Bashir will rejoice, together with tyrants and corrupt leaders around the globe and will certainly open new gates for inconceivable carnage and revenge against Darfurinas with the immunity he is handed over. Such scenario will be catastrophic for the free and democratic world that strives to set new standards of accountability and impunity against tyrants and dictators whom they want to see held accountable for their atrocities.

 

With Omdurman and the Capital particularly vulnerable during the dry season to further invasions by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and cross-desert raiding, Al-Bashir is in the process of erecting precautionary fortification measures of several kinds. Rumours that JEM forces are ready to advance once again and repeat its Operation Long Arm (OLA) has triggered spasms of erratic moves by National Security defensive mechanisms to protect the capital Khartoum. Some of the measures it planned to undertake include building of 180km skirting trench encircling the capital.   The trench which will be flooded with water uplifted from the Nile will have 12 to 14 military observation and military posts.

 

Al-Bashirís thoughts are lost but with the military defence remaining his only option.    The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) proved to be too weak and lack motivations to face the highly mobile rebel forces which managed to evade and overcome its fortifications and reached into the heart of Omdurman on the 10th of May 2008. Al-Bashir now relies on a limited circle of loyal friends and somewhat suspicious that current chaotic environment may encourage a coup against him. Now the  (SAF) together with the National Intelligence Sudanese Security (NISS) forces believes that the threats from the ICC together with a possible strike from JEM have changed from general to specific and accordingly urgent measures are needed to deal with the imminent prospect of an arrest warrant and the invasion. At the same time JEM is conscious of all decisions taken by Al-Bashir in his quest to defend the vulnerable areas on the routes through the desert to Omdurman. It is also aware that both national and the international community will be sympathetic if JEM conducts operations to arrest and hand him over to the ICC.

 

SAF already erected several new army observation posts which were comprehensively identified by JEM intelligence especially in Jebel Issa, Natron Oasis, Malha, Wadi Mugadam, Wadi Malik, Fatacha, Jibal Markhiat and the outskirts of Omdurman. Previous adventures of erecting army posts in northern Darfur went disastrously wrong and confirmed lack of insight by both NISS and the SAF. The National Redemption Front (NRF) that was formed of JEM together with Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) in 2006 -7 managed to defeat and destroy all such posts and brigades in Northern Darfur mainly in Kulkul, Siah, Um Sidir and Kariary with huge embarrassment to SAF. Mr  Jan Pronk; the then UN envoy to Sudan in 2006 was prompted to disclose what happened to the SAF and brought the issue to the open and as a result lost his job when the GOS declared him Ďpersona non grataí and expelled him. From thereon the SAF lost every battle it fought against JEM, the last of which was in Haskaneeta in September 2007 when a well trained special elite forces aimed at assassinating JEM Chairman Dr. Khalil Ibrahim was totally annihilated in a fierce battle that lasted for over three hours long. A week later SAF together with its Janjaweed militias lost another battle near Kuma in Norhtern Darfur.

 

Al-Bashirís response to the new threats by JEM is analogous to the Chadianís when the rebels, who were fully supported and equipped by the Government of Sudan (GOS), cornered President Idris Deby Itno in NíDjamena in February 2008. The Chadians were widely ridiculed by Sudan for digging trenches and ditches around the capital NíDjamena as part of their fortifications to protect areas susceptible to rebel incursions. When the Chadian rebels were defeated once again in Um Zoer on their way back to the Capital in mid-June 2008, inflatable mobile bridges were found among what they left behind. Investigations confirmed that Sudanese NISS supplied their proxy Chadian rebels with the bridges in a calculated plan to overcome the fortifications and reach into Nídjamena.   The finding demonstrates that such fortifications are not immune to counter-procedures.

 

The Sudanese intelligence and its military apparatus seem to live in the past when they thought to rely on medieval techniques that are not impervious. Trenches, moats and sand wall barricades around Omdurman will not deter the rebels from taking the risk and come up with new tactics and techniques to surmount their defences. It is laymanís knowledge that physical barriers are considered useful only as early warnings and will not hamper the advancing forces if they managed to defeat or evade the established primary military fortifications along the route to the capital. SAF and the NISS may also aim at buying time to re-organise and apply other measures if they found themselves overwhelmed by the enemy.  

 

Building high barricades made primarily of sand should remind the SAF that the highly expensive great Bar-Lev Line which was constructed of immense earthworks and supported by barbed wires and fences along the eastern side of Sinai coast did not stop the Egyptians from overwhelming it in their war against Israel in 1976. It is therefore pointless for Al-Bashir to rely on costly mechanisms that will not provide protection and safeguard against new attacks.

 

Al-Bashir should have known very well that real fortifications are not physical. They are based on the hearts and minds of the Sudanese people where freedom, democracy, respect of rule of law, equality and justice prevail for all. Only then can he find support and protection for himself and his regime against Ocampo or others.

 

The possible storming of Omdurman will have far reaching implications for the Sudanese and the International Community at large. During the last attack, JEM forces managed to advance for 1500 Kilometres from Darfur to arrive at gates of Omdurman after securing striking successes against the enemy especially in Markhiat areas, Wadi Saidna, Engineering Corpse and in the vicinity of Omdurman Bridge leading to Khartoum. The NISS and SAF stationed in those areas scattered in the hilly region and JEM lost no time to advance into the heart of Omdurman along the paved roads. Al-Bashir understands that Operation Long Arm was only part of an ongoing war which has included many battles since the start of the trouble in 2003. During the year 2006, the NRF captured most of SAF garrisons and brigades in North Darfur and along the way up to the borders with Chad. With Al-Bashir vulnerable and under extreme distress as a result of his case with the ICC, the pressure is even mounting that JEM may succeed to oust him in its new adventure. Rumours are circulating that the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) may opt to stage a theatrical coup and replace him with either Salah Gosh or Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie because of the  embarrassment Al-Bashir causes to the party.

 

JEM has become a headache that the NCP and Al-Bashir could neither defeat nor find cure for.  The movement operates independently with striking power to locate, identify enemy positions and bases, collect information and gather intelligence.   It conducts cross desert raids and ambushes with efficiency in confusing and overtaking the enemy without air support or sufficient resupply if it went into trouble. Its fighters were made to understand that they might not make it back alive or even dead but the movement always has contingency plans to get them out of trouble if things went wrong.

 

At the political level JEM has been scoring points and has become a political magnitude that none would be able to ignore. It managed to escalate the current phase of its low intensity operations into a full-scale revolution and all Sudanese peopleís warí and develop long term plans with defined military and political objectives. It is only a matter of time before its objectives are realized.

 

Al-Bashir is confronting legal, political and military problems. In all of these fronts, Al-Bashir seems to be losing.   His battle against the ICC cannot be won.   His failure to reach a political and peaceful settlement to Darfur problem poses direct threat to his authority.   On the military front, the possible invasion of Khartoum by JEM fighters remains a real nightmare for him.

 

Author is Dr. El-tahir El-faki is the Speaker for JEM Legislative Assembly. He can be reached on [email protected]

 


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  • An open letter to Hassan Abdullah Turabi By: Brian Adeba,
  • The big lie by Ismail Abdallah M.
  • JEMís Vision for a New Sudan by Dr El-tahir Adam El-faki
  • Reframing the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett
  • Confederation for Southern Sudan a Betrayal to Self-determination By James Okuk
  • President Kiir should admit his failure and resign gracefully by Jor Deng
  • Kiir must be indicted for war crimes BY Atem Mabior
  • Kiir shows his real colours By Atem Mabior
  • Will UN Envoy Eliason Do His Homework on Darfur? By Dr. El-tahir Adam El-faki
  • SALVA KIIR BETRAYS THE SOUTHERN CAUSE by Atem Mabior
  • Critical Analysis on the paper presented by Presidential Advisor, Mr Bona Malwal under the title ĎThe Future of the CPA under the Current Political Crises`.
  • Sudan needs reality check By Hassan Ibrahim
  • The Hypocrisy of NCP Supporters on Darfur By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Polemics of Politics of Transitions in Sudan By John G Nyuot Yoh*
  • SPLM: A Party that Deserves Building not Ruining By James Okuk
  • The Paradox of Political Transformation by SPLM Standards. By; Baraj Ayuen
  • Fanatic Islamic Iran & Exploitive Transnational Capitalism are the Most harmful Sources of insecurity in the World
  • A PRAYER IN EACH CORNER by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • Movement erosion Bneha .... Conflict adults ousts Emin Tela t by Shol Goba
  • Northern Sudanese and Bashirís Call for Jihad Time for Southerners to Think Aloud Lily A. Akol
  • Sudanese & American Friends March for Peace and Reconciliation By Jimmy Mulla
  • The Dilemma of The SPLM: Is it justified? By: Ngino Nikako
  • The 4th General Congress of the Justice & Equality Movement (JEM) By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • If Sudan Want Peace it has to Prepare for War? * By James Okuk
  • Yet Another Africans Challenge: Liability No. 21 the IQ By Dr. Mohamed N. Bushara*
  • When will Darfur mediators learn (2) By Suliman A Giddo*
  • Bravo to Mr. Salva Kiir for Rejecting the US Proposal By James Okuk Solomon
  • Female Circumcision Negligence and Abuse By Dr. Amal Ahmed Elbasheir.
  • U.S Should Upgrade the SPLA if it is willing to Help Southern Sudan *By James Okuk Solomon
  • Where Sudan Is Booming By Alexis Okeowo
  • When Will Darfur Mediators Learn? By Suliman A. Giddo*
  • Mob Emotions Is Anti-Democratic Transformation By James Okuk Solomon
  • Check with Improper Balance: SPLM Risky Politics of Partnership By James Okuk Solomon
  • Another way to break Abie deadlock by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • The SPLM & Protecting the CPA: Guarding Against the Cynical Obstructionism of NCP Parek Maduot
  • Do Ministers belong to the Party or to the Government? *By James Okuk
  • Habib Bank v Central Bank of Sudan Ismat Abdel Gadir - LL.B
  • DRIVING FAST TO EXPLODE IN THE ABYSS! By Comarde Edward Lino
  • Shilluk Communities vs Shilluk International Congress (SIC) By: Kimo Ajing Aba
  • FASTING RAMADAN IN A MONASTERY: Mohammad Ali Salih
  • It is Darfur Again and the Misery Goes On By E. Ablorh-Odjidja
  • SLM request to delay Libya talks by Tag Elkhazin,
  • THE HONOURABLE WISE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD/Ali Mahmoud Hassanein
  • Will the united Sudan remain attractive for all under the NCP regime?! By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Value of Peace in Sudan: From Ki-Moon to International Wisemen By James Okuk Solomon
  • South Sudan Egyptians relations / John Lawrence Morbe Joseph
  • Will the Failed Abuja Diplomacy Be Repeated in Libya? By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Why a reality check is needed on Darfur by Anne Bartlett
  • United, Cairo's poor and poorer get heard
  • A Message from Ajik (Ajang) Union in North American To: Commander and Comrade Daniel Kodi by Fadul H.Haimad
  • What Happened To Gen. Kiir First Vice Presidency Position? / by Isaiah Abraham
  • Eritrea in the Sudan's president's office, By: Mohamed Osman Ibrahim
  • UN Ban Ki-Moon and his Drought Thesis of Darfur Conflict By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • UN Secretary General: Mission Impossible By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Old Habits Die Hard: The National Congress Party is Back to Its Outmoded TacticsóBy: Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Greatest Marginalization of All Time/Isam Siddig
  • Darfur: A Little Less Talk, A Little More Action by Anne Bartlett
  • Muslims eye America by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • General Elections in Sudan by the Year 2009: A Fact or a Fiction?/By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Alsalkeen Charitable Organization General Secretary. /By Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Cons and Cues About The Sudanese Forthcoming General Election/Isaiah Abraham
  • Animalís rights are also rights/Isaiah Abraham
  • SPLM Official Counters the Recent Remarks of the NCP Official over Abyie and Darfour Translated by MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • The Arab Congregation and the Ideology of Genocide in Darfur, Sudan By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • Catholics Led to Hell/Written by Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • Keep away from Darfour, Mustafa Osman Ismail, warns the SPLM Translated by Majok Nikodemo Arou
  • Abyei Protocol. by Mayen. D. Ater
  • Darfur Actors and the absence of Road Maps By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Judiciary Reshuffle Ineptly Calculated by Daniel Deng Monyde
  • Stop the Genocide and give the security then peace will come/Hamed Mohamedain Omer
  • THE AMERICANS AND ME (2): ISLAM Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, ďAsharq Alawsat
  • Unwanted in Israel By Sherine Tadros at the Egyptian-Israeli border
  • ISSUES that Rose From the Sudanese Ambassador Press Conference By Jwothab Amum Ajak
  • Al Bashir Slams on Campaigners against Sudan, Reviews Political Developments By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Was Dr. John Garang Assassinated?/Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • What had happened in Darfur?/Mahmoud E. Yousif
  • Abie conflict The Inferno of Nivasha or the Paradise of Peace by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • TEXT- Conclusions of AU-UN, Sudan on the Hybrid Operations
  • Alfashir is nearer than Kampala: JEM/NRF Commends New SPLM Stance on Darfur/By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
  • COMSARY by SALMAN OMER MAHMOUD
  • Sudan: The Politics of Naming - Genocide, Civil War, Insurgency/Prof. Mahmood Mamdani
  • US to Sanction Dr. Khalil Ibrahim! A Statement/Gammali Hasan Galal Eldin
  • Can Darfur Survive the CPA?/Abdullahi El-Tom and Mahmoud Abbaker Suleiman
  • GOD OR AMERICA: WHO IS FIRST? 8 DIFFERENT OPINIONS/Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, ďAsharq AlawsatĒ
  • It would be Unwise to think that a United Sudan Properly Functions within the Main Frameworks of the Phenomenon of Eastern African Development./Urban T. Kir
  • Darfur Crisis: Mediation Failure (2)/Ahmed M. Mohamedain
  • Government of Sudan and Darfur crisis/Musa Yakub Daoud
  • President Bush "Hurts" for Darfur Darfur Is Safer than US Urban Cities/Ali Baghdadi
  • Our Vision on the prospect of peace to end the Darfur tragedy/By Dr. M.A.Suleiman
  • Lies, Damned Lies and the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett is a Director of the Darfur Centre for Human Rights and Development
  • International Media Ignore Sudanese Voices /AfricaFocus (Washington, DC)
  • Sudanese cyber rally forces website to remove controversial ad by Wasil Ali
  • why war in abyaii by bakhit mohd humaidan
  • Al Salikeen Earmarks 1.2 Billion Pounds for Service Schemes by Al Sammani Awadallah
  • A CALL TO ALL THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH SUDAN/By James Ogilo Agor Agokwech-Rochester, MN USA
  • Will the Quartet Summit Contradict with the UN, AU Role in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Sudan Vision Carries Out a Survey on Pros and Cons of Humanitarian Aid in Sudan By: Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Al Khatim Adlanís legacy of wisdom and vision/ahmed elzobier
  • WHEN THEY BEG FOR UNITY by Mack Awer Riak
  • The Genocide Glitterati by Anne Bartlett
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue Will Not be Held Hostage by Hostile Armed Factions", Says Dr. Omar Adam
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains/by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum/Nour Tawir
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba_Mountains Democratic Forum by Samie A Djudo
  • RIFT KAKUMA HITS BY VALLEY FEVER. By;Mabior Mayom Mayom
  • How Dr. Garang wanted Abyei to be? (1) /By Akol Miyen Kuol
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum
  • The Doomsday Cult/Ahmed Sam, human rights activist.
  • China must emulate AU wisdom in Sudan by Simon Roughneen for ISN
  • An article introducing our country Sudan by Maha esmeal ahmed esmeal
  • It is a time for all Peace forces to take action By : Matur Aciek
  • Kiir stood to his pledge of no reverse gear/ BY MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • IT IS TIME FOR THE SPLA TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN AIR FORCE/Maker Costa
  • Unwitting Party to Genocide By Stephen Rademaker
  • SPLA, STANDS STRONG AND PROUD!/By Hakim Makuer Gol
  • January 9th- a Day of Peace and Full Independence/By Dr. Mawien Akot
  • Muslim cadet clear on identity/YVETTE CABRERA
  • 2008 General Elections: What Are The Scenarios Awaiting Us?/Maker Costa-Syracuse New York
  • ís NCP is planning to rig elections at census level/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Criticism to the Global War Against International Terrorism, (G-WAIT) by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Swindles of Modern Liberal Democracy by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • Peaceful Conflict Resolution & the War on Terror The cases of Sudan and Iraq by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Jinjaweed Leader By : kuku kadia
  • UA-GSC Sudan Resolution Passes/By Marie Y. Thibault
  • All About Darfur: Is Sudan in a culture of war? By Virginie Wembey
  • AU Recommends Six Month Extension for its Mission By: Al Sammani Awadallah / IOL
  • No South/North border and ABC: CPA is dead.By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Darfur destruction is Sudanís al-Bashirís Shame/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Relationship Between Economic Mismanagement & Social Instability by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter
  • Fake Modern Religions Are Fighting Faith by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Ideological Structure of The Conservative Professional Nationalist Party & System by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter,
  • 'Lost Boys of Sudan' By: Kristin Boyd , Staff Writer
  • Sudan's al-Bashir and Palace are imperfect Match By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Frank Wolf: Divest from Sudan By U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-10)
  • Sudanese Native Relates Horrors of His Childhood/By Konstantin Shishkin
  • General Congress of JEM Asserts Creation of a political Party/Professor Mahmoud Abakar Sulaiman
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and the Litany of AU Deceit in Darfur/Dr. Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
  • Ō«—›ś—° “ŖŪ „Õ„Ō ’«ŠÕ (»«Š«šŐŠŪ“Ū…)° ›Ū Ő—ŪŌ… "”š  »Ū —”»Ū—Ř  «Ū„“" ›Ū śŠ«Ū… ›Šś—ŪŌ« «Š«„Ū—ŖŪ…
  • Reign of Corruption and political stagnation By Andrew Bak
  • Current American Planning Strategies vs. Planning Strategies of the 50sí/By: Adil Bala (PhD)*
  • Free Will, JEM Peace Wing Sign Political and Military Protocol By Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Only Favourable Humanitarian and Security Conditions are Needed in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadalla
  • A call to Abolish Shaíria Law in South Sudan: GOSS must take a Lead
  • Race and colour consciousness art or is it ... Religions? Hatim Elmadani
  • Who are Landless People in Sudan? Mack Awer -Cairo
  • Darfur: Diplomacy and its Discontents by Anne Bartlett
  • Why Egypt won't press Sudan: the Nile By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
  • Pathological Delusions by Ahmed Elzobier
  • NIF is determined to kill CPA By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Darfur - Solution Must Come From Africans By Mohammed Eisa Ismail
  • The responsibility to protect Darfur By William G. O'Neill
  • Sudanese go tech savvy By Cheryl Lecesse
  • Sorrow in Sudan By Vivian Ho