آخر التقارير عن سوق العقار في الخرطوم Real Estate

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MENA RE Overview - Q3 2009

الجزء الخاص بالخرطوم يبدأ من صفحة 33

مقتطفات من التقرير

Khartoum annual office rent

PERFORMAN CE indicators
AVERAAGE RENT: US $ 270 per m2 p/a
PREMIUM RENT: US $ 600 per m2 p/a
SALES PRICE: US $ 1,530 per m2
AVERAGE YIELD: 17.7%
VACANCY RATE : 2%

Risk of oversupply in the market is expected to be marginal mainly driven by a sustainable
economic growth and current occupancy levels of 95-100% Future provision of office space
is concentrated primarily within the forthcoming Al Noor City, Blue Nile City, and Wahat Al-
Khartoum Complex, with a total combined GFA of 301,200 m² Almorgran CBD will contribute
approximately an additional 800,000 m² of GLA


During the last five years Khartoum has expanded beyond its traditional limits, with the current demand for commercial office space in Khartoum fuelled by buoyant economic growth, coupled with an increase in the rate of employment, averaging an annual growth rate of 5%; and is expected to rise by the same until 2010. This growth is mainly driven by foreign investment and repatriating Sudanese nationals. Major lessees of office space in Khartoum, are domestic companies, NGO’s and a number of regional banks that are currently under incorporation in the country.

A lack of adequate office space, the consequence of perceived weak demand on the part of prospective developers, has led to businesses and international NGOs either converting residential villas into office space or settling for secondary grade office space due to the conversion expense incurred. Current annual vacancy rates of primary grade properties are estimated at 5%, reflecting the shortage discussed above, with average monthly rental rates
ranging between US$15-30 per m². Rentals for converted villas in Khartoum II and Al Amarat, previously considered primary grade office space, average at US$22 per m², while the Heglieg Commercial Tower, is leased at a monthly rate of US$37.50 per m², which is inclusive of US$12.50service charge, (apremium attached to international standard office space). Trends of employment growth, foreign direct investment and the increased presence of international organisations indicate that demand will continue to outstrip supply beyond the release of the
Wahat Al Khartoum and Sudan Tower developments, reaching an equilibrium once Phase I of Almogran nears completion. Forthcoming supply of office space is concentrated primarily within the forthcoming Almogran CBD, Blue Nile City, and Al Noor City, which will bring over 1,500,000m² of commercial space into the market with the construction of in excess of 60 commercial towers. A visit to the Almogran site by Colliers International, suggests that completion of the CBD is more likely to be achieved closer to 2013 than the envisaged 2010 date, with the supply of office space dispersed throughout this period.

The only confirmed office development in Khartoum outside the Almogran CBD that will be available to international tenants is the Wahat Al Khartoum office complex, located in downtown Khartoum off United Nations Square. It is being built over 27,000m2 of land and will comprise of four interconnected towers. With a total net leasable area of 42,020m², the office complex will be offered for sale to local and international tenants upon completion at a rate of US$2,200 per m², overriding a previous decision to lease the space. Nevertheless, the historic absence of adequate office supply, both in size and grade, has driven some potential primary
grade occupiers to construct properties for their own use.

Forthcoming ٌٌResidential Supply

Demand mainly fuelled by repatriating Sudanese nationals and NGO staff Average sales price has witnessed 54% YOY decrease

PERFORMANCE indicators
AVERAGE RENT: US $ 139 per m2 p/a
PREMIUM RENT: US $ 180 per m2 p/a
AV G SALES PRICE: US $ 1,550 per m2
AVERA GE YIELD: 9%
VACANCY RATE : 10%

The area surrounding the existing airport is expected to appreciate in value in the longer
term. While Garden City to maintain its prestigious status

We expect the completion of approximately 4,600 apartments and 2,380 villa units by 2013,
provided the planned provision is delivered as scheduled

Anticipated economic and demographic growth driven by the hydrocarbons sector and the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South of Sudan, coupled with a shortage of supply serving the expatriate and local high-income segment, spurred a flurry of speculative investment in the Khartoum residential market, precipitating triple digit sales and rental increases over the past three years. Demand driven by the presence of the UN and other international organisations, however, is skewed towards rented accommodation with relatively high quality finishing, in residential areas in close proximity to the airport. This location
preference is generated out of operational necessity rather than personal choice, as UN
regulations require all staff to reside as close to an international airport as possible, in
case of emergency evacuation. These areas in Khartoum initially encompassed Khartoum II,
Riyadh and Manshia, but have now extended to Taif and Arkaweet, due to market saturation.
On the other hand, a shift in preference from single unit family residences in Khartoum,
to apartment sharing is also being witnessed, mainly due to security and/or financial reasons. Consequently, the combination of these factors coupled with the additional supply that manifested in 2008 as a result of previous demand expectations, have softened residential rents with prices stabilizing in Q3 2008. However, the impact of this softening has been reduced to some extent by investors choosing to remove properties from the rental market. This tolerance for vacancy among investors has been caused by a number of factors: the liquidity cushion enjoyed by some property owners; and second, the general tendency of the Sudanese to purchase
apartments as investments while continuing to live with their extended families in villas
or other large properties.

The Khartoum villa rental market is subject to wider fluctuations, given the impact of
expatriate staff in certain areas of the city as discussed above. Average rents range from
US$5,000-15,000 per month, depending on the location, size and finishing. The highest rents commanded in the market are in Garden City and Al Riyadh, with significant decreases in rental prices towards the south of Khartoum. Colliers International research shows that investors in forthcoming villa developments towards the south of city, which command significantly cheaper land and sales prices, can expect an average yield of 10% on their purchase price.

Apartment sales and rentals in Khartoum have experienced escalating prices, particularly over the past three years, mainly due to demand surges and the limited amount of available product at the time. The highest average annual rental rates currently being achieved range from US$90 to US$180 per m² in the areas of Al-Amarat, Khartoum II and Garden City. Residential apartment
services charges range from US$40 - US$60 for each apartment regardless of the number of bedrooms or the apartment size.

While forthcoming supply is estimated at approximately 4,600 apartments and 2,380 villa units by 2013, the escalation of violence in Darfur and the overall deteriorating political situation in Sudan, which formerly had little impact on Khartoum’s daily life, has begun to deter repatriating Sudanese and foreign investors. The gradual release of additional supply, mostly attributable to speculative investments in anticipation of increased NGO demand, has forced the
residential market into a price correction phase.

Foreign Visitors Spending

GDP per capita stands at US$2,227 according to purchasing power parity, but real earnings remain far below this, averaging approximately US$650 per month

The 3,000m² Afra Centre is Khartoum’s only existing mall Average monthly rents range between US$40 and $70 per m²

Limited provision of leasable retail space, unlikely to exceed 5,000 m², will be released into the market between 2008 and 2010

Khartoum’s retail offering is very limited, and consists of a relatively small shopping mall,
the Afra Centre, located in south eastern Khartoum - and a number of shopping nodes on certain streets of the city. These shopping nodes are predominantly comprised of small stores, usually on the street level of mixed use buildings, with a few stand-alone shops spread indiscriminately across the city. GDP per capita stands at US$2,227 according to purchasing power parity (EIU - 2008), but real earnings remain far below this, averaging approximately US$650 per month. Although a sizeable expatriate community does exist, this segment does not constitute a significant demand driver for the retail market, as evidenced by low footfall levels at the Afra Centre. Comprising a total built up area of 6,000m² and gross leasable area of 3,000m², the Afra Centre cannot be regarded as a shopping mall in the contemporary sense.
Based on shopping centre categories as defined by the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centres), the mall falls within the definition of a neighbourhood convenience centre. Stagnant economic growth, minimal purchasing power and high trade tariffs continue to limit retail
development. No developer has sought to replicate the standalone retail mall concept in
Khartoum thus far, preferring to opt for retail provision attached to forthcoming mixed-use,
residential, commercial and hospitality developments. An arguable exception to this, though not strictly a standalone retail development, is the 12,000m² community centre that is a component of the Al-Yasmine residential development. Although unconfirmed as yet, retail provision within the Almogran CBD will be far greater, amounting to 120,000m² of space on the lower levels of
office and residential buildings. The Burj AlFateh, also known as the Libyan Hotel in
reference to its investors, will offer smaller retail provisions, amounting to 2,800 m² on
the ground and first floor when completed.

The shopping mall concept does not appear to have enjoyed the success initially envisaged.
The standard of fit-out, stock levels and stock variety of outlets surveyed by Colliers
International were found to be well below that found in GCC malls, which is perhaps
unsurprising given the difference in disposable income and consumer product availability.
More surprising were poor footfall levels, ranging between 5,000 visitors during the week to 15,000 during the weekend, with only 20% of visitors actually doing any shopping, pointing to a discrepancy with the target market and actual visitors. Rates for leasing space remain high due to a lack of alternatives for brands operating within the centre, with average monthly rents ranging between US$50 and $80 per m².

Based on planned forthcoming supply of retail space outlined above, Colliers International
estimates that close to 170,000m² of leasable retail space will be released into the market by
2013. Applying a 3% population growth rate in line with current trends to Metropolitan
Khartoum’s current estimated population of 6 million, provides a figure of over 7 million by
2013. We therefore forecast a GLA per capita of approximately 0.02m² within the next six
years. This indicates considerable undersupply of retail space, further emphasised by the fact
that supply within Almogran accounts for almost 90% of the total. A more conservative
GLA per capita estimate that only accounts for population growth in Khartoum proper, estimated at 1.18 million in 2013, results in a GLA per capita of 0.11m², further emphasising this potential. Local retail analysts believe that Khartoum North requires at least two malls of 10,000m² each, whilst Omdurman requires three, all aimed at the middle income segment.

..
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سلاك يا العوض

غايتو بالغت فى التقرير المطول
وكمان بالانجليزى ..

_______

بالله جيب لينا المفيد
او مترجم .. :)

Khartoum confirmed forthcoming hotel supply by 2011

Demand driven overwhelmingly by corporate tourism, constituting 90% of total visits to Sudan

Current supply comprises of three locally classified fivestar hotels and four hotels defined as four-star according to Sudanese standards

PERFORMANCE INDICATORs (Y/E 2008)
Market Occupancy: 41%
ARR: US $ 225
RevPAR : US $ 180

A forthcoming supply of 1450 rooms is expected to enter the market by 2013 Total number of 5-star hotel rooms reached 717 in Q3 2008 with an additional 830 rooms, within the same star category, by 2011


Rising oil revenues and privatisation of several key industries have triggered an economic boom in Africa’s largest country, resulting in unmet demand for international quality hotel rooms. This demand is driven overwhelmingly by corporate tourism, constituting 90% of total visits to Sudan.

The oil and construction sectors, together with humanitarian organisations, account for a significant proportion of demand within this broadly defined segment. Until further hotel provision enters the market over the next five years, Khartoum’s hospitality market will continue to be characterised by an insufficient and inadequate supply of hotel rooms and supporting facilities. Up until the completion of the Salam Rotana in February 2007, only the Hilton and Grand Holiday Villas provided accommodation at anything close to international standards.

The combination of a lack of alternatives and historically low visitor levels created an insular market focusing on the long term custom of NGOs and oil companies operating within the country, with little incentive (and limited finances available) to reinvigorate its core offering.

Long stay guests have historically been a lucrative source of income, with a number of hotels housing staff working for international organizations and in various corporate sectors. This market, however, is believed to be declining as residential compounds are completed and apartments of a higher standard are being delivered.

Leisure stays where they exist are generally a single night as visitors transfer from the
airport to archaeological sites elsewhere in the country. A secondary market focusing on the Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) tourism segment is also emerging, driven by a desire on the part of the government to promote Khartoum as a natural centre for East, North and Central African delegates.

Current room rates vary between US$150- 300 per night, which given the standard of available supply and facilities, is expensive when compared against hotel provision in other Middle Eastern and East African destinations. The entry of the Salam Rotana has reportedly taken a significant proportion of business from the historically dominant market players. With the hospitality market at an early stage of development, fixed costs remain high for hotel operators. Pay back periods have been lengthening, indicating that costs are rising; payback on the Hilton was completed in less than five years, whereas hotels opening now expect payback
periods of 10 – 20 years. Assuming improved political stability and concurrent economic
growth, demand for hotel rooms is expected to increase, keeping room availability tight
throughout 2009. As a result, occupancy levels for existing 4 and 5 star hotels are expected to increase or be maintained.

A forthcoming supply of 1450 rooms is expected to enter the market by 2013 and is likely to force incumbent hotels to upgrade their service standards and interior fit-out or risk losing business. Khartoum’s hotel demand-supply dynamic is expected to reach equilibrium with the completion of the Al-Fateh Tower and Rotana Al-Mogran, with a simultaneous decline in occupancy rates at incumbent hotels that do not offer the same standard of service.

This regional overview is extracted from a series of comprehensive real estate market studies which are constantly updated and immediately available from Colliers International MENA for purchase

Colliers International is a global real estate consultancy company providing a comprehensive
range of property services to a broad range of clients on an international basis. Core services
include property and asset management; leasing; development consultancy & strategic
advisory; property valuations and international property investment services.

Thanks to Colliers International Team in MENA

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شكرا يا تبلدينا


مثل هذه التقارير المهنية تفيد المتعاملين والمستثمرين في سوق العقار

كما قصدت أن اقدمه (بضبانته) كنموذج يحتذى للتقارير المهنية الدورية.
ويجب أن تضعه الشركات العقارية والبنوك في السودان في اقسامها البحثية والاقتصادية.

كما أنه سرني لأنه يعكس إهتمام المستثمرين والشركات العقارية لأول مرة بالخرطوم والسودان في تقاريرهم الدورية التي أتابعها.

الأشياء المختصرة في التقرير معلمة بخط Italic

كما أن األأرقام مقدمة تحت كل عنوان

ومنها

بالنسبة للمكاتب في الخرطوم

المؤشرات تقول أن

متوسط الإيجار : 270 دولار لكل متر مربع في السنة

قسط الإيجار : 600 دولار أمريكي لكل متر مربع في السنة

سعر البيع : 1،530 دولار لكل متر مربع في السنة



بالنسبة للعقارات السكنية في الخرطوم

المؤشرات تقول أن

متوسط الإيجار : 139 دولار لكل متر مربع في السنة

قسط الإيجار : 180 دولار أمريكي لكل متر مربع في السنة

سعر البيع : 1،550 دولار لكل متر مربع في السنة