Title: Egypt: A Road Map to Violence
Author: إبراهيم عبد العزيز عثمان
Date: 07-24-2013, 05:35 PM
The Egyptian army chief Gen Abdulfattah al-Sisi requested the opposition supporters to gather in Tahrir Square on Friday as a pretext to taking more critical steps to outlaw the powerful political party in Egypt, namely The Freedom and Justice Party. The party is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood movement which gained a lot of popular support over the years during Mubarak regime. They had acquired the trust of many of the lower classes of the Egyptian society due to their well-organized structure and to their continual social assistance to the poor masses among peasants, workers and white collars in the outskirt of big cities and rural areas. The General have misread the enormous gravity of the situation by snapping the country back to the Mubarak’s era while relying on the conflicting consensual signals sent from western countries. I believe the general is set to engage Egypt in a risky encounter with unknown political consequences. The end result, while securing the sacred Israeli borders, will completely wipe Egypt as a major player in Middle East politics. Egypt would be internally secluded into an undeclared civil strife that erodes its stability. The uncalculated move will put Saudi Arabia back in the front seat of the slow camel ride of Arab politics. This is the more likely scenario to happen, which was contrary to what President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood leaders had planned to bring back Egypt’s role to assume its superiority within Arab politics. This explains the generous moves of the Saudis to bankroll the collapsing Egyptian economy.
The General, who was surprisingly promoted to this post by Morsi himself, knows very well that the opposition lacks popular support. Therefore, a similar well- orchestrated demonstration will be staged with thousands and thousands of army, police and intelligence personnel would be attendant to inflate the number of the few supporters of the opposition. Any political analyst would wonder since when political demonstrations were relied on to give a de facto legitimacy to a minister of defense to engage in demolishing the opposition to his military coup. The address by the General proved the crystal clear picture that he is the man who is calling the shots not the accompanying political stooges who are completely absent from the political decision-making process. Such a daring move could have been easily swallowed if it came from the appointed prime minister, minister of interior or the head of state!!! Regrettably, it is the General’s adventure that would lead to the downfall of the Egyptian politics for decades to come.
The outside observer would question what happens if the fair election, the general promised, would bring back the Islamists into the scene? Given the present betrayal of the first democratic experience then what would prevent it from recurring again and again! There must be another undeclared agenda that the general surely knows would happen that it makes him confident there will be an unspoiled election to his own liking!
The carefully selected committee to massage the nation’s constitution would adopt clauses to abolish religious parties. This is exactly what Al-Sisi meant by giving him personally the popular mandate to fight terrorism. He will take steps to abolish the Muslim Brotherhood movement out of the political stage. The country’s Christian minority had already declared their wish towards a secular approach as their main agenda to the new constitution. Would this be acceptable to the majority of muslims in Egypt? Many muslims, who do not support the Muslim Brotherhood, might not accept a totally secular constitution for their future rule! After all, Egypt is mainly a muslim country.
The coming days will witness bloody scenes with dire outcomes that would torpedo Egypt away from the political arena of Africa and The Middle East. The army General would wade deeper into the brutal onslaught of his opponents within the Muslim Brotherhood leaders and followers. He would push aside his civilian counterparts out of the decision-making process, unless the western countries will interfere to mend the fiasco! On the other hand, Saudi Arabia would resume its quiet well-orchestrated role of leading Arab countries with the same old cliché of bankrolling calamities rather foreseeing just political settlements. The main objective for the Saudis will ensure that The Arab League would remain as it is used to be, a lame duck within the political arena of the Middle East which is dictated by Israel and America. This is the main goal of the outside influential policies that play a hidden indecisive role in meddling into Egyptian politics. General Al-Sisi would have never acted alone without the stamped approval of the United States. His road map would lead Egypt to HELL without a return ally!!