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 Optimism over Khartoum sanctions
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C. Boucek
SENIOR SOURCES in the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs have expressed confidence that sanctions against Khartoum will soon be lifted - possibly this year. As proof, they have cited Sudan's willingness to meet the Bush administration's three main concerns regarding the country. First, that the government of Sudan reach a peace accord with rebels in the decades-long civil war. Following this, that Sudan continue its co-operation with the USA on the war on terror, and, third, that it facilitate the movement of international humanitarian and relief groups.
The prize for Khartoum, the lifting of sanctions, is considerable. The sanctions have hindered Sudan's integration into the international system and prevented foreign investment, especially in the petroleum sector.
Washington has told Khartoum it expects a peace deal to be reached by the end of August 2003, the deadline reflecting both the importance Washington places on an agreement and its optimism that an accord can be achieved.
President George W Bush's special envoy, former senator John Danforth, has to date succeeded where many had forecast failure. The Nuba mountains model has served as an encouraging reinforcement for those seeking to end the civil war. The ceasefire has not only been the result of Danforth's persistent efforts but also the willingness of the parties to bring an end to the hostilities. Years of war have exhausted all sides. The government in Khartoum continues to moderate its behaviour after years of international isolation and, according to senior members of Sudan's foreign ministry, the government has determined that the costs of staying on the US list of 'states sponsoring terrorism' is too high.
Take for example the evolving status of Khartoum. Once a symbol of northern Arab-Muslim chauvinism, the demographics of the capital are subtlety changing. One Sudanese foreign policy observer recently told JIAA that, at present, the population of Khartoum has gone from being almost completely comprised of Arabic-speaking Muslims from the north and east of the country, to now being about 20 percent from the great western portions of the country, and almost 35 percent black-African, non-Muslim Sudanese from the south. Furthermore, according to sources in the Sudanese government, there are plans to create an 'internationalised' portion of the capital; an administrative district geared for foreigners where sharia law would not apply and more liberal Western behaviour accepted.
Supporting 'Enduring Freedom'
A second major concern with respect to Sudan's removal from the terrorism list is Khartoum's continued co-operation in Operation 'Enduring Freedom' and, more generally, in counterterrorism.
Sudan has been co-operative with Western intelligence and security agencies in the war on terror. One Sudan watcher recently noted to JIAA that the FBI and CIA have had an effective presence in Sudan for at least the past four years, well before 11 September 2001. Sudanese authorities have opened their files on Al-Qaeda personnel and operations to Western counterterrorism organisations. These date back to Osama bin Laden's residence in Khartoum, and Sudan has thus been able to shed much light on his organisation. Sudan's most recent publicly acknowledged role in combating international terrorism was the extradition to Saudi Arabia of some 20 suspects wanted in connection with the 12 May Riyadh bombings. Significantly, Khartoum has not registered its objections to Washington's efforts to create an East African counterterrorism coalition.
Sudan has also taken steps to adjust its stance in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Bush administration has requested that Sudan close the offices of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and senior Sudanese diplomats have stated that the groups' offices in Khartoum at present serve only as press and political offices. Nonetheless, the government has said it is willing to shut even these offices and end the official presence in Sudan of both groups. When Khartoum does take these steps, it will likely do so with little fanfare, as happened in Syria.
Humanitarian relief
With respect to international NGOs supplying humanitarian relief, Khartoum has agreed to facilitate the movement of these groups. Specifically, Washington is interested in increasing the number of flights into the south and west of the country, and maximising the access granted to the UN's Lifeline Sudan programme. The government of Sudan has nothing to gain by impeding relief delivery, and is aware of the goodwill such co-operation would garner with a US administration that has placed such emphasis on its Africa policy. This may in fact be the most likely 'concession' Khartoum can offer to the White House.
While it may seem curious at first, Sudan may well figure quite prominently in President Bush's re-election strategy. Despite his position as a wartime president, Bush will be entering the 2004 election with several serious foreign policy challenges unresolved: the initial military victories in Afghanistan and Iraq notwithstanding, the future of those countries remains uncertain; Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein remain at large; Al-Qaeda continues to menace the USA and its allies; and the US-inspired road map to peace in the Middle East appears stillborn.
With few concrete US foreign policy achievements to point to in an election year, peace in Sudan has the potential to bolster Bush's electoral draw. Evangelical Christians and social conservatives are among Bush's strongest and most powerful supporters; Evangelicals now comprise over one-quarter of all voters in the USA. This constituency has also historically been the most active when it comes to Sudan, drawing attention to issues of slavery, religious persecution and human rights abuses. To speak as the president that toppled the tyranny of the Taliban, liberated the Iraqi people and helped to end one of Africa's longest running civil wars would significantly strengthen Bush's re-election chances.
From Khartoum's point of view, having an 'oil administration' in the White House can only bolster the hope that Sudan might find itself off the US-designated list of 'state sponsors of terrorism', and instead - following normalisation - graduate to being an energy-rich ally for an administration seeking to diversify its petroleum supplies.
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Janes service
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Rakoba
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
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