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 Re: الفان و300 جندي امريكي الى القرن الافريقي : نأمل أن لا دخل لنا بهذا (Re: safwan13)
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A Coming Offensive in Sudan?
Jun 30, 2003
Summary
Stratfor intelligence, combined with an accumulation of seemingly unconnected events, indicates that the United States is preparing a covert counterterrorism operation in Africa -- most likely in Sudan.
Analysis
Several events -- including stepped-up counterterrorism training in Djibouti, apparent al Qaeda activity in Sudan and U.S. President George W. Bush's upcoming visit to Uganda -- along with information from Pentagon sources indicate that the United States is preparing for a covert counterterrorism offensive, likely in Sudan.
Such an offensive would be part of a larger summer push by Washington to shut down al Qaeda cells in Africa and elsewhere before they have an opportunity to launch attacks on U.S. soil or against American assets abroad. If there are plans for an operation in the Horn of Africa, they could resonate throughout the continent and redefine the precarious working relationship between Khartoum and Washington.
Sudan is a prime locale for al Qaeda operations: Not only is the country riven by civil war, but a large faction of the Arab Muslim north is radicalized and has ties to militant organizations. The east African state is largely undeveloped and has plenty of inaccessible areas that are suitable for militant training bases. Moreover, al Qaeda has longstanding ties with factions of the government, and Osama bin Laden has both lived in the country and reportedly spent millions building roads and other infrastructure to facilitate his organization's operations there.
Although the government in Khartoum is sharing intelligence with the United States, tensions with Washington remain. Moreover, Khartoum does not have complete control over even the Arab north, and al Qaeda has established ties with fundamentalist factions within the country.
Several recent events suggest that Washington is planning a counterterrorism operation in the near future, and western Sudan is likely the bulls-eye U.S. forces are targeting.
Prepping in Djibouti
Pentagon sources tell Stratfor that the U.S. military is gearing up for an operation in Sudan. The most likely base for such operations would be Djibouti, which in May became the home of the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa -- a force of approximately 1,500 troops that is responsible for counterterrorism efforts in the Horn, eastern Africa and neighboring Yemen.
U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks visited tiny Djibouti in late June. The timing coincided with two reported training accidents, which point to increased military activity and perhaps preparations for an offensive.
On June 25, a French Mirage jet crashed during a training mission, killing the pilot and navigator. The air-to-ground attack plane was on a nighttime maneuver 20 miles south of Djibouti's capital. Two days earlier, a U.S. Marine was killed and eight others were wounded when a B-52 dropped bombs on them during a training exercise on the Godoria Range, along the country's northern coast.
Al Qaeda in Sudan
During the same week, Greek authorities seized an explosives-laden ship on its way to Sudan. Officials in Khartoum vehemently denied that the explosives were for terrorist activity, saying instead that the cargo was meant for legitimate purposes, such as building roads and other infrastructure.
The ship, registered as the Baltic Sky, drifted around the Mediterranean for 40 days with a load of 680 tons of explosives, mostly TNT and thousands of detonators. The ownership of the vessel remains murky, and Greek authorities claim that it is not legally registered. NATO has been monitoring the vessel's activity for weeks, Agence France-Presse reported.
Taken as an isolated incident, the ship's seizure would be merely interesting. However, combined with other events linking al Qaeda activity to Sudan, a ship full of TNT takes on dangerous overtones. In early June, Newsweek reported that the United States was monitoring chat room messages between al Qaeda suspects -- including one code-named Sakr (which means "hawk" or "falcon" in Arabic) -- based in Sudan. The suspects were reportedly chatting about attacks in Texas planned for the Fourth of July holiday.
In early June, Sudan also extradited 17 Saudi nationals and a Palestinian who were arrested while conducting weapons training. The Saudi Press Agency reported June 6 that the men were picked up in a remote region of western Sudan and sent to the Persian Gulf kingdom. No official announcement linked the suspects with al Qaeda, but Riyadh would be unlikely to take an interest in expatriate militants unless they were tied to the network, whose goals are to overthrow the House of Saud and oust U.S. military forces from the Arabian Peninsula.
Sudan's western provinces -- Ash Shamaliyah, Shamal Darfur and Gharb Darfur -- are known as hotbeds of anti-government militant activity. Khartoum has concentrated most of its military forces in the south, both to prosecute the civil war with rebels there and to protect southern oil fields. This has left western Sudan largely to its own devices.
In the Darfur provinces, the so-called Sudan Liberation Movement/Army has been fighting government forces since February. Khartoum blames Chad and Kenya for backing these rebels -- a charge that both N'Djamena and Nairobi deny. In early June, the government in Khartoum reinforced military bases in the region in a bid to put down the rebellion.
Though no direct evidence has surfaced, it is possible that al Qaeda militants active in the far west are at least tacitly encouraging the rebellion in a bid to weaken Khartoum, which has been working with Washington.
Washington and Khartoum -- Friendly Enemies?
Washington's perception of Khartoum's intentions is a bit clearer. Bush will make his first presidential trip to Africa from July 7 to 15. His five-nation tour will include a trip to Uganda -- a plan that must make the government in Sudan nervous. Kampala long has wreaked geopolitical havoc in Sudan, sometimes supporting and sometimes combating the SPLM/A.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is an astute geopolitical player who has manipulated conflicts in neighboring Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic and Sudan to his advantage. He will seek to reverse any cooperation between Khartoum and Washington because doing so will strengthen the U.S. dependence upon -- and by extension, support for -- his government. Khartoum, already leery of working with Washington, will see Bush's visit to Kampala as a direct threat.
That Khartoum is not screaming about an impending counterterrorism operation on its soil by U.S. and allied forces suggests that Sudan is working with Washington in this regard. However, permitting an operation is not the same as welcoming it -- and that could make all the difference in such an operation's chances for success.
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Copyright 2003 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved.
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