THE CHINA FACTOR AND ITS IMPACT ON INSTABILITY IN SUDAN by ADAROUB SEDNA ONOUR

It is like stating the obvious saying that the once loved and respected country of Sudan which enjoyed fruitful relations with numerous states of the world, is now labeled as a terrorism-sponsoring country which allies have now reduced to only communist china and to a lesser degree Russia? Of course it is a long established fact in international politics that relations between countries are based on and dictated by material interests only. But that ceased to be an observed rule in Sudan since June 1989when the maximalists of the notorious Islamic movement of Sudan seized power in a military coup. Ever since, almost all democratic countries distanced themselves from the new radical regime, eyeing it with due worry and suspicion. The new regime, nonchalantly, worked away its designs and turned east, to china in particular, which is notorious for its violations of values such as human rights, rule of law and democracy etc. China, which is not a charity organization, promptly forged an alliance with the Sudanese tyranny. The custodians of the new anti-imperialist regime (as they love to be named, to throw dust in the eyes of their blind followers) were so jubilant of their putative political break through and of gaining an Asian super -power that they could rely on? The Chinese knew that Sudan -economically –was a sleeping giant, so they were quick to jump at the mouth-watering carte blanche offer by the Sudanese regime to explore for oil, exploit and invest in all the huge untapped resources of the country. thus a seemingly win-win deal was struck …the regime got what it badly needed (money and weapons) china on the other side, secured a foot-hold in virgin and resource-rich Africa, in addition to thousands of job-openings for its massive unemployed work-force(90% of the so-called Chinese experts are actually prisoners ?) Sudan has been in the world’s spot-light ever since. Because the regime used the weapons supplied mainly by china, to commit horrendous crimes against its own unarmed civilians, in total disregard of any law. Nonetheless all the designs and anti-people policies of the tyrannous regime eventually failed to materialize. Therefore the regime, to unburden itself of the huge pressure it was put under, had to accept the secession of its southern part and lose one third of its land-mass and population, rendering the country to be approximately 70% of what it was in 1989? No doubt china today is a giant-economically only-but without military muscles, e.g. in comparison with the west, ……so it now seems to have decided to divert its attention from war-torn Sudan to more attractive and stable destinations such as Ethiopia ,which has the lion share of all Chinese investments in Africa. simply because china is not a heady risk-taker, but a realistic ,profit-seeking pragmatic investor, which is not under any illusions about the futility of providing weapons for 25 years at a stretch to a weak ally which is waging an unwinnable civil- war on three different fronts at a time ,especially now that there is almost no oil(frequent shut-downs caused by insecurity)? This, more than anything else, is the right context in which to put the recent visit of the Chinese foreign minister to Sudan. The message he must have conveyed to his Sudanese hosts and the south Sudanese warring factions is , thus easily predictable ((…….look, all of you …we have invested heavily, in your oil, and we need to recover our money …so, either you silence your guns …or otherwise ….??)) which is a worrisome development for Sudan to lose its but last ally , and have to accept what it long refused to accept(( respect the diversity and will of its people , stop killing them and consider a realistic change of course))…I wonder whether if the time has come ,or not yet for the Sudanese ruling cabal to realize that they are now perfectly on the horns of insolvable dilemmas that the whole world became weary of ? I am surprised at their not being sufficiently aware of the looming under-current tribal and regional wars, for which all the tribes of peripheral Sudan are now oiling their guns? Why do they insist on meaningless elections which are not likely to be accredited by, not only, the regional and international institutions, but by all the Sudanese masses and their political and communal bodies which vowed to boycott them? In a word … I only hope that they are not naively betting on ghost institutions such like the African union, the Arab-league or the equally paralyzed Islamic-conference, which are fables … because they were passive eye-witnesses of the still on-going political earthquake which hit Libya, Egypt, Yemen ,Syria and Iraq etc , Yet….. Not a word fell from their lips, neither in solidarity nor in condemnation?????? That said, can’t these unscrupulous and self-centered fools ruling Sudan today, see that the western powers which bolted-out china from taking part in the arrangements and agreements reached in NEVASHA talks….. are not going to play dead and blind, and leave china harvest the fruits? Certainly they won, t, and indeed they are now moving many of their loyal chess-men in this strategic region, to keep china at bay and send a message to Sudan…not a foreign minister ???..At the end of the day china will leave Sudan to its fate and play fair to make its position Cleary known and will show its acceptance to play by the western rules..Because it knows the DOs &DONTs in international politics, red-lines and the prevailing mechanisms and dynamics in place in today’s world … … but does our out of touch and unpopular tyranny know? The answer is, regrettably NO...so they will never be helped out of their self-inflicted crises , until they properly understand that ,by relying on china to find solutions they are knocking on the wrong door.
ADAROUB SEDNA ONOUR

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