Facts, Background of Split within SPLM, their Effects on the Future of Southern

Before the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement there had been disagreement within SPLM over the ways SPLM was doing things: General Salva Kiir himself was on top of the issues over which members of the SPLM differed.
Thus, while John Garang was negotiating with government, Kiir exploited the absence of his chief and tried to control the entire affairs of the movement.
What followed is that rumors had spread that Garang had issued orders for the arrest of Kiir and have him replaced by Commander Nhial Deng.
Thus the secret three-day meeting of SPLM and SPLR command council held in Rumbek on 29.11.2004 was intended to diffuse the situation within the movement at the time when the movement was about to sign a final peace agreement with the government.
Cleverly, John Garang saw the Rumbek meeting a chance for dealing with the danger facing his movement – and his leadership; he did not want to be a victim of Salva Kiir's ambitions.
Indeed, by that time, Salva Kiir had mobilized SPLA against the movement leader. However, a preemptive move was taken by the chief when he sought to use Nhial Deng for paving the way for a dialogue within SPLM in order to diffuse the tension.
In addition, he issued some decisions under which he gave Kiir greater powers in order to dilute the anger of his deputy.


Salva Kiir and the first split
Both Garang and Kiir had reached an agreement on certain points which were to the benefit of Kiir that ensured for him not only the post of Vice President and commander of its forces, but also the in-charge of the South-South dialogue.
Indeed, Kiir was very clever in using the post of in-charger of South –South dialogue to his benefit later on, and in this way he managed to persuade armed faction to take his side and adopt his agenda.
What helped Kiir more was the attitude of these factions towards Garang.
At the time, the South-South dialogue in Nairobi had reached a deadlock, particularly the dialogue with General Paulino Matip Nhial despite Garang's attempts to reach a comprehensive reconciliation amongst Southerners.
Meanwhile, the recommendations of the conference held in April 2005, i.e. after 4 months from the signing of the CPA, called for the dissolution of the armed factions and for a dialogue between those factions and the SPLM.
The conference also recommended that all matters relating to the status of these factions and how to absorb them in the SPLA be the subject of a dialogue.
However, in the opinion of the AF, SPLM did not give them their communal status and that SPLM gave consideration to tribal affiliation more than to any other political considerations and hence they became hostile to SPLM and to its chief.
Another factor that contributed to the widening of the rift between John Garang and Salva Kiir was the present GoSS's Vice President, Riek Machar, who played the role of a neutral go-between despite the fact that he is from the Nuer tribe. In fact, Machar's middle-of-road approach and his keenness not to give preference to either sides, won him the respect of all SPLM' factions despite reservation and doubts on the part of others.
Such role could be understood better when we know that the relations between Denka and Nuer is based on self-interest despite the historic animosity between the two tribes.
Thus, Machar continued to represent the neutral faction or the 'wise and sincere go-between', an approach that is hardly known in dealings between Southerners and the government in the North.
We have examples of many issues and problems which Machar was chosen to solve as the best man can do.
Even Salva Kiir greatly depended on him as his envoy to Khartoum for solving many of the problems that stood in the way of the two partners.


John Garang departs, equation upside down
The sudden demise John Garang after a very short time of being sworn in as First Vice President of the Republic in late July 2005 was a great shock for everyone.
Indeed, the disappearance of John Garang from the political scene has changed everything in SPLM and befuddled many of the political calculations that had been based on his leadership of SPLM.
However, the departure of John Garang was very clearly in the benefit of Salva Kiir who thus ensured a smooth of transfer of power to him.
Salva Kiir did not face any difficultly in having the endorsement of SPLM's politburo as a new leader in a post that should not have remained vacant for long due to the sensitivity of the phase.
So, the first job of the new leader following the sworn in ceremony was to receive leaders of Southern armed factions whose loyalty he had already won before the departure of John Garang.
To ensure their continuous loyalty, Salva Kiir, started to distribute money and other necessary handouts to them.
Meanwhile, he used General Paulino Matip Nhial in a mission to reach out these factions, including those who sided with the Sudanese army, the majority of whom were from his tribe, the Neur.
General Paulino Matip Nhial met with East Neur factions at Bentiu and managed to convince some of them to accept his lucrative offer that included a guarantee to transport their forces from Khartoum and to pay them money to manage their affairs.
However, despite that, some elements of those factions, such as Major General Gordon Kong, Gabriel Tang, John Duet, El Toum El Nour (Edward Lino's kin) and Benson Kwac, all of them being sons of chiefs and represented a large segment remaining outside SPLM's control.
Meanwhile, a large number of Southern factions considered themselves as part of the armed forces and that what they had concluded with GoSS were only understandings.
Thus in January 2006, General Gordon Kong, commander of Sudan Defense force, held a conference in Khartoum in which he said that he was still attached to the Sudanese army.
He further said the segment which joined Paulino did not exceed 10% of Southern factions, the total number of which being 28.
In addition, General Gordon Kong expressed his full preparedness to execute the peace agreement with National Unity Government and GoSS for achieving stability and security in the South.

Factions Left Outside SPLM
It is important to mention here that the factions that remained outside SPLM throughout the transitional period had been exposed to continuous aggravation and provocation.
The effect of such provocations developed to take the form of hostility towards the respective tribal groups to which these factions belonged.
An example of this was what major General Gabriel Tang inyang was exposed to when in 2004 he traveled to Malakal accompanied with 4 of his guards on his way to Fanjak Island to spend the holiday there with his family.
As soon as he arrived there SPLM spread rumors that he had come for fighting. The result was a bloody confrontation in which many civilians and soldiers were killed.
Things did not end there but SPLM demanded that General Gabriel Tang inyang be handed over to it for prosecuting him.
Such hostility that had happened twice whenever he visited Malakal and that has made him explicitly oppose SPLM policies. Eventually, we have heard news report that he launched attack on SPLM near Fariang city in which not less that 87 persons were killed.


Marginalization – the curse of elections
The elections that were conduced in April 2010 have revealed the magnitude of the tribal and institutional difference within SPLM.
Such split has caused deep fracture within SPLM from which it has been suffering ever since.
Thus, many of SPLM's leaderships deserted the SPLM's institution and ran as independent candidates while other nominated themselves for various posts.
The SPLM's official response was that which was expressed in the words of its secretary-general, Pagan Amum, who said any tendencies for taking independent stance should stop otherwise SPLM will terminate violator's membership.
In defending their cases, those who took such independent stance said the SPLM have taken the step because SPLM was not treating all with justice since tribal affinity and personal relations were taken into consideration in the selection process.
This also clearly appeared in the nomination of governors when Kuol Manyang was nominated for the Jonglei post instead of George Athor who considered himself and not Manyang as the legitimate nominee.
The outcome has been that Athor has gone into rebellion and is now posing great danger to SPLA.
According to Athor, the motivation for him to rebel was that a big forgery had taken place in the elections by SPLM so that he might not win them.
The same thing happened in North Bahr El Ghazal in which SPLM endorsed General Paul Malong as a nominee instead of the independent nominee, Dao Athor ,who said he was backed by a large strong popular base compared to Athor.
Similarly, Angelena Teng, wife Riek Machar, Salva Kiir's deputy and who is the daughter of Unity state's ex-governor, Thomas Kume was nominated as an independent nominee to compete Taban Deng who was supported by Salva Kiir.
Indeed, observers have noted that Machar had vigorously supported his wife and did not hesitate to participate in the election campaign despite SPLM's dissatisfaction with his wife.
It is rumored that Anglena had the support of major general, Galwak Gai who is from Jugi, a small but fierce sub-tribe.
Perhaps SPLM feeling that Gai belongs to an oppressed sub-tribe was the reason that led them to move him from SPLA and appoint him as deputy director of prisons at Unity State. This is why he feels marginalized and hence his bad feeling towards SPLM.
Regarding David Yau Yau, a Murle native who is now leading a fierce war against SPLM in alliance with George Athor, he was hoping to become an MP in the South for Pibor constituency. However, SPLM excluded him, and this led him to form a faction that is causing security problem to both SPLM and Government of South Sudan.


PART TWO
Athor...a knife that bounces in the heart of the Movement: -
As the South chooses secession it will be facing the risk of defectors against whom it has initiated enmity.
Those who know Lt. Gen. George Athor say he hails from the tribe of Dinka Attar which has no significant number of members among the commanders of the Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Army(SPLA) , though it include a remarkable number of fighting individuals.
Athor who is a first-class military officer and was the best of the SPLA officers who master the art of guerrilla war, he worked at Khor Fulus for around twenty years.
He initiated a mutiny leading a force of 33,000 soldiers , overwhelmingly from the Dinka and Nuer tribes, which he deployed at Khor Fulus and Attar in Jonglei State.
In the early stage of the mutiny , Athor attacked, at Khor Fulus, his previous battalion of the SPLA which he thoroughly knows and sized a considerable number of arms and ammunitions and used the area as his stronghold. Thereafter the range of mutiny expanded gradually and gained new areas after inflicted heavy losses on the SPLA camps.
Some leaders say that that whenever Athor attacks any SPLA force , that force either surrender with all its weapons or at least get information about new sites for his future aggressions. That made that mutiny the most violent and most effective against the SPLA , despite the SPLM attempts to downplay it in the beginning.
Needless to say Athor supplies his force with the arms that he spoiled from the camps he attacks, hence fights the SPLM with its own arms and that was the bitter fact that the movements bids to camouflage by accusing others.
The SPLM moved to stop their stretching when the referendum deadline was nearing so as to avoid distortion of the vote process, some foreign organizations and European states facilitated communication between the two parties , to the extent that made Salva Kiir pardoned those who take up arms, and Athor conditioned the stepping down of Manyang and abandonment of the elections results, condition the SPLM viewed as unfeasible. Communications continued until a ceasefire deal was reached.
Athor accepted negotiations with the movement for gaining a calm period for achieving some political gains, such as the release of prisoners of war, lifting on the blocking of his troops by the SPLA and obtaining weapons from arms traffickers active in the region and corrupt SPLA Generals. Indeed, he was able to get considerable quantities of food and medicine supplies from the European brokers after the ceasefire accord.

The Puzzle of David Yau Yau:
We have mentioned that David Yau Yau was one of those excluded from candidacy in the elections. That exclusion might have strongly pushed him to take up arms against the SPLM , supported by the fact the people of the Morle' tribe know that the SPLM considers them as uncooperative as the Shilluk tribe. No doubt Yao, in one way or another, has received some support from George Athor , hence become empowered and able to wage a set of successful assaults that constituted a threat to the SPLA.
Being aware of the said support, the movement requested to visit Yao at his camp with the permission of Athor, and demanded a reciprocal visit as a prove of good intents. However, fearing betray, Yao sent three of his commanders instead of paying the visit himself. Unfortunately his fears came true as the SPLM slaughtered the three commanders, including James Kaku Atourk and even targeted all the camps of Yao. That betrayal was among the reasons that made Athor backtrack on his deal with the movement.
It was circulated that Athor sent a force to relieve Yao who, escaping elimination, reached the site of Athor after a 12-day walking in the jungle, to become part of the leadership council put together by Athor and continue campaigns against the SPLA.


Gai and Oliny the anger of Nueir and Shilluk:-
Another name appeared among the SPLM defectors, it was Oliny who hails from the Shilluk tribe. On the 6th of this March, SPLM troops attacked his forces at the area of Bedudi on the suspicion that supports Athor in the area the later had lined off , through his deal with the SPLM , as a place for assembling his fighters. However, Oliny retreated and stroke SPLA logistics camp of Awaj , sized arms and supplies and withdrew. As a result, Oliny was able to attack Malakal town , seize arms from three police stations and move towards the Governor's residence , to make the SPLA use tanks for pushing him back and flee to Wau town leaving behind huge losses among civilians.
There was also Galwak Gai whom we mention earlier. As Taban Deng targeted and blocked the tribe of Gai on the background of his support to Angelina Teny candidacy against him, Gai announced mutiny, later his communications and coordination with Athor qualified him a member of the leadership bureau established by Athor.

The South Awaits a deformed embryo:-
This narration shows that the SPLM is now cropping bitter fruits after adopting the polices of disperse and exclusion against its own leaders, it as well shows that the movement failed to grasp that matters might become uncontrollable. The magnitude of this shocking fact can not be diluted by accusing the partner in North of supporting the movement's defectors who it severely oppressed many times.
The most hard part of the issue is that the range of mutiny has begun to expand to include new names , perhaps veiled groups.
Under these circumstances, perditions are ongoing regarding the future of the new independent state the SPLM has long been awaiting after investing all its tactics and tricks to win it.
smc

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